We’re trying something a bit new this year, as I’ll be taking a season-long ride we’re calling “The Bankroll Challenge.”
Basically, I’ll start with 50 units to wager on DraftKings Sportsbook for this NFL season and try to build that bankroll as large as possible. In order to do that, I’ll save the majority of my bankroll to use week-to-week, but betting futures has been profitable for me in recent seasons, so I’ll want to sprinkle some of that in as well.
This article is going to be where my most confident plays go, so while a best bets article may highlight the top five bets to consider one week, this is the place I’ll be posting selective bets that I’m most confident in, along with a unit amount.
This article will also be a running blog, so look for more plays to be dropped in throughout the week with fresh updates.
You can find my NFL Futures bets for the Bankroll Challenge here.
MIA -3.5 (-110) — 2.2 to win 2
This feels like a trappy line and also might be a public one, but I like the spot and will back it. I bet this at -3 earlier in the week, but I think getting under -4 is fine. Miami is red-hot, winning and covering five straight games. Tua Tagovailoa has been fine, but this is more about the Miami defense dominating. Going up against a Denver offense that may or may not have Drew Lock on Sunday, I just can’t see the Broncos putting up many points in this game. Denver has failed to cover three of its past four and is only 1-3 straight up at home. I don’t hate an under play in this one since my analysis seems to be pointing in that direction, but I feel more comfortable in Miami’s matchup advantages across the field pulling out a convincing victory.
KC -6.5 (-132) — 2.64 to win 2
I locked in KC -6.5 before the COVID-19 concerns for the Raiders, but as bodies start to get ruled in for Vegas, I think this line could come back a little. So wait until Sunday and hope to get this one around a touchdown. As for the analysis, I don’t care how good we think the Raiders are this season, everything points to the Chiefs. Kansas City may have been a little shaky heading into the bye, but we know how dominant Andy Reid has been out of the bye in his career. The Chiefs have also been spectacular on the road in the division under Reid, going 14-3 ATS in their past 17 road games in the AFC West. This is generally where the Chiefs pick up momentum in the season — last year they played the Raiders out of the bye and got a 31-point victory. That win sparked an 8-0 straight up and ATS run all the way through the Super Bowl. I expect similar motivation this time around, especially considering the Chiefs’ only loss this season was to the Raiders at home. Time for some revenge.
Damien Harris Rushing Yards: OVER 63.5 (-139) — 2.78 to win 2
As for why I want to back Harris, he’s posted three 100-yard games since coming off IR and topped 63.5 yards in three straight games — averaging 98 yards during that span. He’s coming off season-highs of 22 carries and 121 yards during Week 10’s upset victory over the Ravens and should be locked in for another massive workload in Houston. Why do we want to fade the Houston run defense? Well, it’s pretty much as bad as it gets. The Texans rank dead last in the NFL in run defense, allowing 167.4 yards per game. Last week in Cleveland, this defense allowed 100-yard games to both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Earlier in the season, it allowed a 200-yard game to Derrick Henry. At a modest number like 63.5, mash the over.
Kyler Murray Rushing Yards: OVER 57.5 (-124) — 1.86 to win 1.5
Murray’s rushing prop keeps moving up a couple yards each week, but he’s still being undervalued because he’s a QB. The reality is, Kyler is Arizona’s featured RB and shares carries with Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds, and the red zone numbers prove it — he’s handling over 35% of the red zone carries. Murray has rushed for 60-plus yards in four straight games, and seven of Arizona’s nine contests this season. That includes 14 carries for 67 yards on SNF back in Week 7, when the Cardinals beat the Seahawks 37-34 in OT. It’s encouraging that Arizona has been using Murray more in the run game as the season progresses, with at least 10 carries in each of the last four games — averaging 77 rushing yards during that span.
Few more circled spots I hope to have plays on later in the week. Waiting on some potential line movement, as well as a couple rushing props to be released.
FUTURE UNITS PENDING: 5.88
SEASON TOTAL: 15-27 (-11.72 UNITS)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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