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UFC Picks: DraftKings Sportsbook UFC 255 Prop Pool Predictions

Greg Ehrenberg gives his picks for the free-to-play pool questions on DraftKings Sportsbook for the UFC 255 Prop Pool.

There is a free-to-play $10K pool on DraftKings Sportsbook available for UFC 255 on Saturday night. The free-to-play pool contest locks at 10:00 p.m. ET. Let’s take a look at the questions for this contest and try to identify the best answers.

Play the Free $10K UFC 255 Prop Pool here at DraftKings Sportsbook Pools.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Alex Perez - Who Wins

I assume most people will select Figueiredo here. It’s understandable why. He is a -305 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook and the odds are not something we have to worry about when filling out a pool lineup. Since the odds are so wide, I have to think that Figueiredo wins this fight more often than he loses it.

With this said, I think the line is a bit too wide. When looking at the stats of Figueiredo and Perez, it’s not hard to see that Perez has a volume advantage. He lands 4.68 significant strikes per minute compared to 2.80 significant strikes per minute for Figueiredo. Figueiredo has devastating power, but if Perez can avoid getting finished in the first couple of rounds, he’s live to win this fight. We have seen Figueiredo wear down after the second round in previous fights. Even though I think Figueiredo might be more likely to win, Perez is worth picking in Pools as a live underdog with less ownership.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Alex Perez - Winning Method

The answer you want here depends on how you answered the first question. If Figueiredo wins, I think he’s most likely path to victory is by KO or TKO. Of his eight wins in the UFC, Figueiredo has won by KO in four of them. In addition, Perez only has one loss in the UFC and he was knocked out in the first round of that fight.

If you picked Perez, it’s a bit tougher to find a path to victory. I think he has more avenues to win than Figueiredo. Perez should have a volume advantage, so he’s likely to win if this goes to decision. He’s also won a pair of UFC fights by KO/TKO and three submissions wins as well. With the bulk of his UFC wins coming by submission, I think this is the best way to go about making a lineup with Perez.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Alex Perez - Total Rounds

Based on what I laid out above, the answer here should also be predicated on who you pick to win the fight. If Figueiredo wins, I think this fight probably finishes in the first or second round, making the under the way to go. If Perez wins, he’s likely to wear down Figueiredo in the early rounds and either finish him later on in the fight or win on scorecard, making a Perez win more likely to hit the over.

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jennifer Maia - Who Wins

There is no real analysis I can give here because the answer is so obvious. Shevchenko is a -1667 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. The odds give Maia essentially no chance to win and I agree with the line. If Maia were to somehow win, it would be one of the biggest upsets in the history of combat sports. Any pick here other than Shevchenko is basically throwing away your lineup before the contest starts. There are more sensible ways to make contrarian picks.

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jennifer Maia - Winning Method

It’s easy to say Shevchenko will win. It’s harder to figure out how she will win because she can win this fight however she wants. Decision, KO/TKO and submission are all on the table here. I think the most likely outcome is a win by decision. Shevchenko is a counter-striker and she doesn’t typically force the action. We have seen her show no issue with picking apart opponents at range and going to the judge’s scorecards. She’s never landed 100 significant strikes in a fight and we saw her land just 42 in a five-round decision over Liz Carmouche last summer.

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Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jennifer Maia - Total Rounds

Since I am picking a win by decision for Shevchenko, it makes sense that I would also take the over here. If you think the win is more likely to come inside the distance, then the prudent pick is to take the under 3.5 rounds for this prop. Your answer here should correlate with your answer from the previous question.

Mike Perry vs. Tim Means - Who Wins

To say the least, Mike Perry is not a normal fighter. Instead of getting a proper training camp or working with one of the bigger MMA gyms, he’s getting cornered by his pregnant girlfriend for this fight. It’s not the first time he’s done this. Perry went without a proper cornerman for his last fight and ended up winning a convincing decision over Mickey Gall.

As good as Perry looked in that fight, he still should probably be working with an actual team. He’s also fighting much stiffer competition tonight in Tim Means. This is one of the closer lined fights on the card. Eventually, the lack of a real time working with Perry is going to bite him. I am not sure it will happen at UFC 255 but I do slightly lean towards Means because of an advantage in output. Means lands 4.92 significant strikes per minute compared to 4.36 significant strikes per minute for Perry. Means also has better defense and absorbs less strikes per minute.

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Mike Perry vs. Tim Means - Winning Method

Since I am picking Means to win, I am going to go with Means by decision here. As mentioned above, he has an output advantage over Perry. Not only does Means land at a higher rate on the feet with better striking defense, he also is a bit more active as a wrestler, landing 0.98 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to 0.66 takedowns per 15 minutes for Perry. The biggest concern with Means is durability. We have seen him hurt on the feet and finished a couple times over the last year. If you’re picking Perry to win, his most likely path to victory comes from a KO/TKO.

Mike Perry vs. Tim Means - Total Rounds

If I am picking Means to win by decision, it stands to reason that I am also picking the over in this fight. Like with most of these questions, the answers should correlate with each other. So if you are picking Perry to win by a knockout, it makes sense to take the under for this question. The answer should be determined by whatever was answered in previous questions.

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