The Buccaneers are coming off back-to-back wins of 25-plus points, hitting their stride on both sides of the ball. The Giants are coming off of blowing an 11-point fourth-quarter lead to the Eagles, which will mostly be remembered for Daniel Jones stumbling into the turf face first on one of the easiest walk-in touchdowns you’d ever see.
Sitting in last place in the worst division in football, it’s clear why the Giants enter as 12.5-point home dogs in a game with a total set at just 45.5. The side and total are tough to bet, although I do lean toward Tampa in a blowout. I think the Bucs are a very strong teaser piece, but this game feels like a lot of player prop angles we can dive into.
Here’s what jumps out on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Evans has disappeared the past two weeks, seeing just four total targets, but I’m willing to throw his recent duds out the window with Chris Godwin’s absence for this game. Godwin returned from a previous injury and soaked up the majority of the targets on the outside the past two weeks. Before that, Evans hauled in six total touchdowns in the first five games of the season, finding the end zone in all five contests. Against a shaky Giants secondary, I like Evans’ chances to score.
The Bucs haven’t had both Jones and Fournette healthy in the backfield much this season. I think the props may still be skewed toward Jones putting up massive numbers in the games Fournette missed, creating some value here. In the Week 7 blowout win over the Raiders, Fournette played 40 snaps to just 31 for Jones. The workload was relatively even, but Leo saw more overall touches, and although six were receptions, he still rushed for 50 yards on 11 carries. RoJo went for just 34 yards on 13 carries.
There’s a chance Fournette is just going to see a 60/40 workload edge in this backfield, meaning the props are out of sorts. The Giants do allow just 3.7 yards per carry, which ranks in the top five in the NFL. But it’s a low number for Fournette, who also should see the goal-line work — hence the consideration to take a rushing score prop at +150. Jones is priced at +110, so whether Fournette scores or not, I still feel like we’re getting value on this play.
In terms of the Jones unders, he’s averaging 44 rushing yards on 12.5 carries in games that Fournette plays. He’s gone under 15.5 carries and 61.5 yards in three of those contests, with both overs back in Week 1 when Fournette was brand new. It doesn’t hurt that the Giants have a solid rush defense.
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Devonta Freeman suffered an ankle injury against the Eagles and has been ruled out for this one. While Dion Lewis may factor in, to a degree, he’s averaging just 1.4 receptions per game this season. He went without a target last week, even with Freeman missing much of the game, and losing a fumble on one of his rushing attempts didn’t help his cause. Gallman out-snapped Lewis, 32-15, on offense, out-touching him 15-3. Gallman also brought in all five of his targets, gaining 20 yards. It’s not a great matchup for anyone on this Giants offense, but considering the game script we expect here, Jones should be under pressure and forced to dump it down to Gallman more than he’d like to. If the Bucs’ defense does allow anything, it’s been receptions to RBs — 6.7 per game ranks fourth-most in the NFL on 8.4 targets per game. Nice plus-money spot on a low number.
The Giants have the worst pass protection in the NFL and will be without at least one offensive lineman on the COVID-19 list for this game. Jones has been awful under pressure, and while it’s led to plenty of turnovers, the G-Men have also taken 20 sacks this season. Enter JPP, who has a team-leading 5.5 sacks himself, in a revenge game back in the Meadowlands. Not much else goes into this one — I’m open to fading New York’s offense in almost any capacity in this one.
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