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NFL Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for Week 11

Steve Buchanan breaks down the Week 11 DraftKings NFL slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

No one cares about the intro to an article. So just go ahead and read what I wrote below for Week 11.

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Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Favorite

Pittsburgh Steelers (-500; -10.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+410)

The Jaguars were the biggest underdog on the board last week and yet, they made a game against the Packers competitive despite losing 24-20. Now, they find themselves as double-digit underdogs once again against the undefeated Steelers. The Steelers are tied with the Dolphins as the best team against the spread, going 7-2 and covering by an average margin of +6.5 points. As away favorites, the Steelers are only 1-1 ATS. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are 4-5 ATS and are failing to cover by an average of -2.5 points.

I feel like we all didn’t give the Jags much of a chance last week but I’m not here to make a case for them at all in Week 11. This Steelers defense is legit in all facets of the game and is going to pose an extremely tough matchup for Jake Luton ($5,000) and company. No opposing team has recorded more than 279 passing yards in a game and over the last five, opposing teams have averaged just 210 per game. It’s been tough to run against this defense as well. While they’ve allowed over 100 rushing yards in three straight weeks, it was just 58.5 yards in five games prior to that. This should be an easy one for the Steelers in Week 11 to remain undefeated.

Other notable favorites: New York Jets (+360) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (-435; -9.5) Dallas Cowboys (+280) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-335; -7)

Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Atlanta Falcons (23.5 points) at New Orleans Saints (27.5 points; -4) 52 points

We all thought Jameis Winston was going to start this game but now we’re getting Taysom Hill ($4,800) instead. To be fair, the matchup is great against a team that has allowed the second-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks, averaging 322 per game and a league-leading 22 touchdowns thrown. Hill wasn’t a great passer in college and any interest I had with the Saints has since disappeared, especially with how popular Hill likely will be now.

We also have to watch on the status of Calvin Ridley ($7,000), who sat out Week 9 and then had a bye in Week 10. He’s been practicing in limited fashion and has a chance to play but is still viewed as questionable. When Ridley was out, Matt Ryan ($6,300) got the ball to Hayden Hurst ($4,400) and Julio Jones ($7,500) the most with a 23% and 20% target share respectively. This could be a really sneaky spot for Hurst to begin with, as the Saints allow an average of 15 DKFP and 53 receiving yards along with six total touchdowns to the position. Meanwhile, Jones would battle Marshon Lattimore, who has been targeted against 44 times, allowing 30 receptions for an average of 13.7 YPR and five touchdowns scored against.

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DVP Matchups

Worst QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, 15.6, 1st
Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers, 16.7, 4th
Houston Texans, New England Patriots, 16.8, 5th

Best QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, 29.2, 32nd
Pittsburgh Steelers, Jacksonville Jaguars, 25.5, 30th
Los Angeles Chargers, New York Jets, 23.4, 29th

Worst RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers, 18.0, 1st
Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, 18.6, 2nd
Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, 19.6 3rd

Best RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Carolina Panthers, Detroit Lions, 36.1, 32nd
New England Patriots, Houston Texans, 32.9, 31st
Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers, 32.6, 30th

Worst WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Cincinnati Bengals, Washington Football Team, 27.8, 2nd
Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens 30.8, 4th
New York Jets, Los Angeles Chargers, 33.3, 6th

Best WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans, 47.2, 31st
New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, 46.9, 30th
Dallas Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings, 45, 29th

Worst TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers, 7.8, T-1st
Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, 8, T-3rd
Houston Texans, New England Patriots, 8.1, 5th

Best TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, 18, 32nd
Washington Football Team, Cincinnati Bengals, 16.4, 30th
Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia Eagles, 15.8, 29th

Target Report

Last Week’s Target Leaders

Week 17 Playoff Implications

Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Dalls Cowboys New York Giants DAL -3 45 Winner goes to playoffs if PHI beats WAS
Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers CLE -9 42 CLE W needed
Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills BUF -3.5 43 MIA W needed
Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals BAL -12.5 44 BAL W needed
Arizona Cardinals LA Rams ARI -3.5 40.5 Winner goes to playoffs
Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts IND -14 49.5 IND W needed
Tennesse Titans Houston Texans TEN -7.5 56 TEN W to clinch AFC South
Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears GB -5.5 51 GB W locks No.1 Seed & Bye
New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers NO -6.5 47.5 NO shot at No.1 Seed
Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers SEA -6.5 46 SEA shot at No.1 Seed

DraftKings Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets, $6,800 — Herbert has been incredible since taking over the starting job in Los Angeles. Now he has a new haircut and despite looking like someone getting ready to attend their high school homecoming dance, he’s one of my favorite plays in Week 11 against the Jets. This team has been very generous to opposing quarterbacks, allowing an average of 23.4 DKFP and 287 passing yards with 16 total touchdowns thrown. The Jets have also allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt at 8.1. Only four teams are allowing at least eight yards per attempt with the Jaguars topping the list at 8.6. That works well for Herbert, who has 40 deep attempts of at least 20+ yards. That’s quite an impressive number when you consider Herbert ranks just outside the top 10 most in the league and has played one or two less games than everyone else on the list.

Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers vs. New York Jets, $7,400 — Of course, if you’re using Herbert, you may as well pair him with his top target in Allen. Allen completely dominates the overall target share at 29%, with Hunter Henry ($4,600) second at 18.4%. Allen also tops the red zone targets at 21.4% over Mike Williams ($5,100) at 16.7%. As if that wasn’t good enough, we should see Allen draw coverage against Jets corner Corey Ballentine, who is expected to get the start with the team ravaged by injury at the position. In his short time on the field, Ballentine has been targeted against nine times and has allowed seven receptions for an average of 14 YPR and a touchdown scored against. This is simply not fair for the Jets this week.

Top Running Back To Consider

Mike Davis, Carolina Panthers vs. Detroit Lions, $6,800 — Hey! Remember this guy from last week that got you a whopping eight fantasy points that everyone was so0o0o00o0o excited to play? Yup, it’s time to quickly forgive and forget and lock him back in at a $2,800 salary increase.

This matchup, unlike last week, is a massive upgrade. The Lions are one of the worst run defenses in the league, allowing an average of 179 scrimmage yards to opposing backs per game. Regardless of the matchup, the Panthers get the ball to Davis when he’s the lead back. In fact, in the games without Christian McCaffrey, he’s averaging 39.1% of the team’s touches. No one even comes CLOSE to that number. The lowest percentage of volume Davis had was last week at 30.8% but the Panthers also lost their lead quickly and had to go to a pass-heavy script. This is a big spot for Davis, don’t miss out on this one.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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