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Fantasy Football Picks: Chiefs vs. Raiders DraftKings NFL DFS SNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Sunday’s 8:20 p.m. ET contest between the Chiefs and the Raiders with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

I’m not quite sure anyone could have predicted how important this game would be for the AFC playoff picture two months ago. However, as we currently stand, Sunday’s meeting between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Las Vegas Raiders will not only have a massive ripple effect in the Wild Card hurt, but also in the divisional race. The Raiders come into Week 11 just two games back of the Chiefs, with Kansas City’s lone loss in 2020 at the hands of this very same Las Vegas squad back in early October.

It honestly has all the makings of a very watchable contest. Let’s dive in and break it all down from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (KC vs LV)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Travis Kelce ($15,900 CP) - Look, we’re all aware how difficult it is to choose between Kelce and Tyreek Hill ($11,000) on a Showdown slate, let alone how hard it is to afford Captaining either of the two with Patrick Mahomes ($13,400) being as expensive as he always is. Still, even with that said, I do think there’s a clear advantage for the tight end in Sunday’s matchup. Since Jon Gruden took over the head coaching duties for the Raiders in 2018, Kelce has absolutely owned the former Corona spokesman. In five head-to-head games, the All-Pro is averaging 10.4 targets, 7.4 receptions, 107.0 yards and 0.8 touchdowns. In contrast, Hill has been relatively contained within the same span, producing a measly 3.5 catches per contest. Obviously, that’s not guaranteed to carry over into this specific meeting, yet it’s clear that if Gruden is indeed picking his poison, he’s choosing Kelce. Expect the 31-year-old, who currently leads all TEs in PPR fantasy points per snap (0.33), to continue to dominate this weekend.

Derek Carr ($14,700 CP) - We all know that Las Vegas’ plan to win this game involves controlling the ball and the clock with the legs of Josh Jacobs ($9,600), who enters Sunday as one of only two running backs in the NFL with at least 200 touches this season. However, don’t sleep on the viability of Carr. The QB is actually in the midst of a fantastic campaign, sitting with the second-lowest interception rate in the league (0.7%) and averaging the sixth-most adjusted yards per pass attempt (8.4). Carr isn’t often asked to carry the Raiders on his shoulders — he’s exceeded 40 pass attempts on just a single occasion in 2020 — but he did register a season-high 27.98 DKFP in his last matchup with Kansas City. If Las Vegas gets into a script where they have to play from behind, I’ll take Carr at 1.5x value over Jacobs, especially considering the RB has managed a paltry six targets across his past three starts.


FLEX Plays

Darren Waller ($7,000) - It’s almost shocking to see Waller with a price tag this low, but it’s the direct result of underwhelming recent play and an extremely top-heavy Chiefs roster. The thing to think about when assessing Waller’s value on this slate is script. Just like with the aforementioned Carr, Waller’s stock skyrockets if the Raiders find themselves in a position where they have to throw the football out of necessity. Heck, the tight end’s 28.7% target share doesn’t only lead all Las Vegas skill position players by a wide margin, it’s also the sixth-highest mark in the league as a whole and the highest figure for anyone specifically at his position. Volume is always king and Waller’s averaged 19.6 DKFP in the four games he’s seen nine-plus targets in 2020.

Demarcus Robinson ($4,400) - There’s still a lot to be determined when it comes to Robinson’s role in Week 11; however, it’s important to note that the question marks aren’t stemming from the wideout’s own health. Sammy Watkins ($5,400) — who hasn’t taken the field since Week 5 — is questionable to play Sunday night with a hamstring issue, while Mecole Hardman ($3,600) remains on the Reserve/COVID-19 list with his status very much up in the air. If one or both of his teammates end up sitting out, it’s not farfetched to believe that Robinson could build on the 80.6% snap share he logged in the team’s victory over Carolina. In fact, in such a scenario, someone like Byron Pringle ($200) could even become a salary-saving asset at the absolute minimum. One thing is for sure: If the Chiefs maintain anything close to the 69.9% pass ratio they’ve posted since the beginning of Week 7, whoever ends up active is viable.

Le’Veon Bell ($1,400) - While I don’t believe that Bell’s in for some magical performance this weekend that gives us all flashbacks to 2017, I also don’t think he should be this inexpensive. Yes, the veteran has yet to see more than nine touches in a Chiefs uniform or score more than 6.8 DKFP; but he’s also had at least one red zone touch in all three games he’s played for Kansas City. Heck, Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($8,200) has only out-touched Bell 26-to-20 since the former All-Pro decided to head west. That’s not deserving of this kind of salary discrepancy. On a slate with so much top-end talent, Bell’s the type of asset that can make lineups work from a financial standpoint.


Fades

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($8,200) - Early on in the Bell experiment, I had been vocal in my support of Edwards-Helaire as a variance play. He was the younger back. He was the better back. He was the back that was going to continue to dominate the volume in Kansas City’s backfield. Well, as mentioned above, this has not been the case. The rookie has registered the three lowest snap shares of his career in the Chiefs’ past three games, culminating with an underwhelming 40.3% share in Week against the Panthers. To be completely honest, the season-long first-round pick has become a little touchdown dependant; however, even in the two contests where he’s found the end zone with Bell active, he’s only averaged 12.8 DKFP. Edwards-Helaire simply isn’t worth $8K at this point in 2020.


THE OUTCOME

I have to give some serious credit to the Raiders. You could make the case that only a couple teams have been hit harder by COVID-19 so far this season, yet Las Vegas is 6-3 overall and 6-3 ATS. Still, I like many don’t believe there’s a way that the Raiders can take down this Chiefs squad twice in the same year. Kansas City is not only 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games as a favorite, but its 9-1 ATS in its past 10 against opponents with a winning record. The Chiefs will find a way to get this done.

Final Score: Kansas City 31, Las Vegas 21

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (KC vs LV)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.