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NFL Week 11 Odds: Line Movement, DraftKings Sportsbook Football Betting Analysis

Matt Meiselman gives football betting analysis and insight for Week 11 of the NFL, including line movement and betting splits.

NFL Week 11 is setting up to be a messy one, particularly in terms of the starting quarterbacks around the league. The Saints are reportedly going to start Taysom Hill with Drew Brees injured, deciding not to go with Jameis Winston at least for the time being. Elsewhere, it looks like Teddy Bridgewater will be out for the Panthers, while Drew Lock’s status is in doubt for the Broncos. All in all, there’s actually not much betting line movement at DraftKings Sportsbook, but that could certainly change by Sunday.


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Sunday Line Movement Update

  • With Teddy Bridgewater ruled out, the Lions are now up to 3-point favorites. The line had shifted towards Carolina earlier in the day when Bridgewater was looking like the starter.
  • The public likes the Falcons and Patriots this week and has caused the lines to shift further in their directions.
  • A few other lines have moved further against the public, including the Ravens, Eagles, and Raiders.

Betting Splits Breakdown

A few of the road favorites are setting up to be this week’s most popular bets and it’s especially notable to see so much action on the Patriots after they played so poorly in October. It seems like one really good game (a win over the Ravens) has gotten the Patriots back in everyone’s good graces and even as road favorites in Houston, they’re still getting most of the betting volume.

The Dolphins are getting a lot of love from DraftKings Sportsbook bettors as well and, as mentioned above, it probably has a lot to do with the status of Broncos quarterback Drew Lock. Lock was hurt in last week’s loss to the Raiders and whether or not he plays figures to have a significant impact on Sunday’s betting line.


How the Lines are Moving

Spreads

Detroit Lions (+1.5 to -2)

Dallas Cowboys (+8.5 to +7)

Totals

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (49 to 51)

The line movement for the Lions seems to be entirely due to the Teddy Bridgewater injury, and the more notable adjustment is coming from the Cowboys’ game in Minnesota. Andy Dalton will be back this week, and even with most bettors taking the Vikings the line is still moving toward Dallas. The handle percentage here is in the opposite direction of the bet percentage, and that appears to be what’s causing the line to move. The Cowboys just covered their first spread of the season in Week 9, but sharp bettors seem to be banking on them to do it again in Week 11.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.