Here are some NFL bets that jump out in Week 11 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
This feels like a trappy line and also might be a public one, but I like the spot and will back it. I bet this at -3 earlier in the week, but I think getting under -4 is fine. Miami is red-hot, winning and covering five straight games. Tua Tagovailoa has been fine, but this is more about the Miami defense dominating. Going up against a Denver offense that may or may not have Drew Lock on Sunday, I just can’t see the Broncos putting up many points in this game. Denver has failed to cover three of its past four and is only 1-3 straight up at home. I don’t hate an under play in this one since my analysis seems to be pointing in that direction, but I feel more comfortable in Miami’s matchup advantages across the field pulling out a convincing victory.
I locked in KC -6.5 before the COVID-19 concerns for the Raiders, but as bodies start to get ruled in for Vegas, I think this line could come back a little. So wait until Sunday and hope to get this one around a touchdown. As for the analysis, I don’t care how good we think the Raiders are this season, everything points to the Chiefs. Kansas City may have been a little shaky heading into the bye, but we know how dominant Andy Reid has been out of the bye in his career. The Chiefs have also been spectacular on the road in the division under Reid, going 14-3 ATS in their past 17 road games in the AFC West. This is generally where the Chiefs pick up momentum in the season — last year they played the Raiders out of the bye and got a 31-point victory. That win sparked an 8-0 straight up and ATS run all the way through the Super Bowl. I expect similar motivation this time around, especially considering the Chiefs’ only loss this season was to the Raiders at home. Time for some revenge.
This will probably be my biggest play of the week, assuming Harris is a full go — the Pats list him as questionable every week with multiple injuries, but he’s usually fine. As for why I want to back Harris, he’s posted three 100-yard games since coming off IR and topped 63.5 yards in three straight games — averaging 98 yards during that span. He’s coming off season-highs of 22 carries and 121 yards during Week 10’s upset victory over the Ravens and should be locked in for another massive workload in Houston. Why do we want to fade the Houston run defense? Well, it’s pretty much as bad as it gets. The Texans rank dead last in the NFL in run defense, allowing 167.4 yards per game. Last week in Cleveland, this defense allowed 100-yard games to both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Earlier in the season, it allowed a 200-yard game to Derrick Henry. At a modest number like 63.5, mash the over.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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