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NFL Predictions: Football Player Prop Bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for Week 11

Kenny Ducey gives you his best player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for NFL Week 11.

It’s Week 11 in the NFL, and it’s once again time to survey each game for value player props. I’m backing a grizzled veteran to stay hot and fading a couple of totals I see as far too high, including one on Tom Brady. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Alex Smith over 269.5 passing yards (-112)

Yes, this feels like a total that’s too high to take, but consider the past few games. Smith has gone for 715 total yards in his past two games and the Cincinnati Bengals have allowed an average of 290.7 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks over the past three. This is a red-hot quarterback that will see another soft matchup, something he’s used to exploiting. Terry McLaurin, Logan Thomas and Steven Sims, Jr. have established themselves as high-class receivers this season, and there’s even a chance Smith will get Dontrelle Inman back, who was a full participant in practice on Friday. Smith is set up for success this week at home against Cincy.

Nyheim Hines over 27.5 receiving yards (-112)

Six running backs this year have gone over this receiving total against the Packers, and Hines himself has averaged 33.6 yards through the air over the past five weeks to go along with nearly five targets. The third-year pro out of NC State has begun to heat up in recent weeks, cementing himself as one of the focal points of the Colts’ offense. With a number of names from the defensive side of the ball listed on the Packers’ injury report this week, led by Jaire Alexander and Kevin King, I’m willing to go back to the well with one of the more exciting players to watch in football. Hines should get fed.

Gus Edwards under 36.5 rushing yards (-118)

Edwards saw just 23% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps last week — the lowest mark for him since Week 3 — due in large part to the return of Mark Ingram from injury. With Ingram back, he’s been relegated back to his largely goal-line oriented role, and shouldn’t receive enough touches to come close to this mark. Mix in the fact that the Titans can defend the run decently, ranking ninth in football over the past three weeks, and this number should safely come in under 36.5.

Tom Brady under 300.5 passing yards (-112)

Yes, Tom Brady is fresh off a 341-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Panthers. He also has thrown for 300 yards just three times this season. Jalen Ramsey and the rest of the Rams’ defense have wreaked havoc upon opposing quarterbacks this season, and I think the pass rush coupled with Ramsey’s shutdown defense will make life incredibly difficult on Brady and the Bucs. This defense has allowed just one 300-yard passer: Josh Allen in Week 3. In fact, they’ve allowed just four quarterbacks to even throw for a touchdown against them; Allen had four, Jimmy Garoppolo had three in Week 6 and then they scattered two more across their other nine games. Brady might have moderate success here but I don’t expect a monster game by any means.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.