The SNF matchups are starting to heat up now that we’ve reached the flex scheduling part of the season, and we should get a decently thrilling game on Sunday night between the Chiefs and Raiders. With some sides and totals being offered, here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook for this game.
Yes, the Las Vegas Raiders did wow us on primetime once before this season against a playoff team in Week 2 with a 34-24 win over the Saints, but I don’t think they are this good. Andy Reid is 7-4 against the spread after the bye in his tenure with the Chiefs, and 6-3 against the spread this season in general. Statistically speaking, Kansas City covers, especially in spots like this, and I’ll take Patrick Mahomes over the 25th-ranked passing defense in the league.
The Chiefs should win this one handily, and Mahomes will have his way with this soft and undisciplined Raiders defense, but that doesn’t mean Las Vegas won’t be able to move the ball on Kansas City. This offense ranks among the 10 best in the NFL according to DVOA, and they’ve scored the eighth most points per game in football (and 28 per game in their last three). The over is 6-2 in Raiders games and Patrick Mahomes in a great matchup certainly won’t be the reason that trends slows to a halt.
For all the reasons mentioned above, I think there is a great chance this game will be high-scoring. In the first quarter, in particular, the Chiefs are averaging nine points per game over their past three games, and roughly six for the season. With Kansas City’s easiest route to points coming via the pass, and Las Vegas ranking 10th in the league in yards per pass, we shouldn’t see a heavy dose of the run early on. That should mean no long drives and a good opportunity at two touchdowns. Kansas City should help us hit this a good bit.
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