clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Trends and Early NFL Predictions for Week 12

Steve Buchanan analyzes three fantasy football player performances from Week 11 and gives his take on if it’ll continue or not in Week 12.

There is nothing better than some overreactions after the dust settles on a football Sunday. All of us armchair quarterbacks go and make our critiques and tell all our friends and family about what we would have done differently.

The great thing for me is, they asked me to do this and YOU’RE sitting here reading it! How about that?

For this piece, each week we’ll take a look at some players that either potentially overachieved or underachieved and what the outlook for them is moving forward — specifically for next week’s game. Are they set up for more success or could someone have simply had a bad week? My job here is to try and figure that out and relay that information to you. Let’s take a look!

Oh, feel free to tell me how wrong I am by getting at me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire[$1M to 1st]



Damiere Byrd, New England Patriots
Week 11 Fantasy Total: 29.3 DKFP

You may have missed it but Byrd absolutely went off on the Texans’ secondary, grabbing six of his seven targets for 132 yards (!) and a touchdown. When you add in his rushing attempt for an additional 11 yards, his 29.3 DKFP was one of the highest on the slate. This is AFTER Byrd didn’t even have a single catch in Week 10 against the Ravens despite playing on 72.4% of the offensive snaps.

It’s been tough to hammer down anything consistent with this Patriots offense. Cam Newton is averaging only 27.5 pass attempts per game, which is one of the lowest in the league. Even when Newton is throwing the ball, he’s barely averaging over 200 per game at 211 passing yards. Nonetheless, Newton seems to love honing in on a particular player and staying locked in on them. We’ve seen that with Jakobi Meyers, who prior to Week 11 had at least a 41% target share between Week 8 and Week 10.

Week 12 against the Cardinals does draw a very enticing matchup against a secondary that’s allowed an average of 178 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns scored by opposing receivers. With only a modest bump in salary at $4,100, Byrd should very much be in play, especially since he has seven targets of at least 20+ yards, which is the most on the team. It won’t take much for him to return value on that salary, especially in a game where the Patriots will likely be playing from behind.


Nelson Agholor, Las Vegas Raiders
Week 11 Fantasy Total: 20.8 DKFP

Agholor continues to make Eagles fans despise him but not for the reason you may think. Now, it’s seemingly becoming more obvious that maybe he wasn’t the problem and it’s actually their quarterback, Carson Wentz. They sure could use someone who’ll grab six of their nine targets for 88 yards and a touchdown right now, as Agholor did against the Chiefs Sunday night. His performance netted him 20.8 DKFP, which was his second-highest of the season aside from the 24.7 DKFP he dropped in a tough matchup against the Buccaneers in Week 7.

It’s taken a bit of time but Agholor is emerging as the WR1 on this team. Of course, no one is going to replace Derek Carr’s top option of Darren Waller ($6,000) but Agholor is cementing his spot among the wide receivers. Since the Raiders’ Week 6 bye, Agholor is averaging a 19.2% target share among all receivers. In fact, his 31% share against the Chiefs was the highest on the team, including Waller. His snap count continues to rise as well, playing on 74.6% while Henry Ruggs ($4,300) was second at 54.2%. Meanwhile, Hunter Renfrow ($4,000) is trending in the wrong direction, playing on just 34% in Week 11.

A slam dunk matchup awaits in Week 12, as the Raiders will visit the hapless Falcons, who arguably have one of the worst secondaries in the league. After allowing 172 receiving yards to the Saints last week, the Falcons now allow an average of 45.8 DKFP, 210 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns scored by opposing receivers. Agholor should draw plenty of CB Kendall Sheffield, who has been targeted against 42 times, allowing 32 receptions for an average of 15.6 YPR.


Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Week 11 Fantasy Total: 7.3 DKFP

The Dolphins hit the snooze button on Tua Time, instead turning to Ryan Fitzpatrick late in Week 11, who came very close to putting together what would have been an incredible comeback. Instead, the Dolphins took the loss from the Broncos and have already committed to turning back to Tagovailoa in Week 12. I mean, why not? It’s the Jets on tap.

I’m MORE than willing to wipe away the memory of Week 11 and get right back on Tagovailoa. Sure, he did not look good against the Broncos, completing just 11/20 pass attempts for 83 yards and 7.3 DKFP. The Broncos’ secondary is no easy matchup and they’ve gotten their starters back after some injuries over the past couple of weeks. Now, he’ll face a putrid Jets team who can’t get out of their own way.

Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 24.1 DKFP and 295 passing yards per game against the Jets with 19 total touchdowns thrown. New York’s secondary is going to offer minimal resistance and they don’t have much of a pass rush either. When Tagovailoa is working with a clean pocket, he boasts a 77.1% adjusted completion percentage, 6.7 yards per attempt and all six of his touchdowns thrown. He truly couldn’t have a better matchup to bounce back with and only sees a $100 increase in his salary. He could end up being a steal at this price and it’s worth monitoring what his ownership looks like as we draw closer to Sunday.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire[$1M to 1st]


Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA) or TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789. 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/NH/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL/TN only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.