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NFL Thanksgiving Odds: Line Movement, DraftKings Sportsbook Football Betting Analysis

Matt Meiselman breaks down the Thanksgiving NFL games with football betting analysis and insight, including line movement and betting splits.

Thanksgiving NFL Football is down to just two games, as the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers have been pushed back to Sunday due to a series of positive COVID tests. The teams playing on Thursday are now all below .500, but there’s still plenty of interest in these games and even some playoff implications, too. The Houston Texans and Detroit Lions will kick things off at 12:30 p.m. ET, with the Washington Football Team and Dallas Cowboys following later in the afternoon.

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Houston Texans at Detroit Lions

Opening Line: Lions -2

Current Line: Texans -3

Opening Total: 50.5

Current Total: 51.5

Bet Percentages: Texans 73%, Over 59%

Handle Percentages: Texans 68%, Over 68%

There’s been a tremendous amount of movement to this game’s spread, with most of it coming since the conclusions of last week’s games. These teams were polar opposites in Week 11, with the Texans bouncing back after a tough stretch of games to beat the Patriots, while the Lions failed to even score a point against the Panthers. Kenny Golladay has been ruled out again, which is probably playing into the line movement as well; though the total has actually gone up by a point in recent days. Most of what we’re seeing is probably optimism for the Texans offense, which was extremely efficient in their 27-20 win vs. New England.

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys

Opening Line: Cowboys -1.5

Current Line: Cowboys -3

Opening Total: 48

Current Total: 46

Bet Percentages: Cowboys 67%, Over 65%

Handle Percentages: Cowboys 79%, Over 52%

Much like the Texans, the Cowboys appear to be on the rise heading into Week 12 after a surprising road win in Minnesota against the Vikings. Even though Washington also won their game convincingly against the Bengals, they did so in a spot where they were favored, and it was also a game in which Joe Burrow exited early with a leg injury. The Cowboys perceptions benefited more from the results of Week 11, but on top of that, there seems to be some concern about the status of Terry McLaurin for Thursday’s game.

McLaurin is listed questionable as of Wednesday afternoon, and the betting lines have been bouncing around in an attempt to adjust for his availability. The initial surge mentioned above moved the Cowboys from -1.5 to -2.5, but they actually reached -3.5 after that before falling back to just -3. The total has dropped, too — from 48 to 46 — so it really seems like there’s no consensus in the betting patterns as far as whether to expect a fully healthy McLaurin on the field for Thanksgiving.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.