Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here most weeks too, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.
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Patrick Mahomes ($8,000) – Tyreek Hill ($7,800) – Ronald Jones ($6,100) – Antonio Brown ($5,700)
Tampa has allowed 13 passing TDs over their last five games and also just allowed the easily rattled Jared Goff ($6,000) to complete 76% of his passes while throwing for 376 yards and 3 TDs. Their “funnel to the pass” defense, combined with their inability to cover the WR position, means that we could have an eruption spot from Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill on our hands here in Week 12. The Bucs’ secondary got worked up and down the field last week by Cooper Kupp ($6,400) and Robert Woods ($5,800) to the tune of 23 catches and 275 yards and now have the speedier and more talented Tyreek Hill to deal with. Hill’s target share has been increasing of late as the Chiefs’ defense has been unable to get stops, which has created more opportunity for the Chiefs’ leading wide-out. He’s now averaged an insane 12.66 targets in the Chiefs’ last three games and could be in for his first huge yardage explosion against Tampa, who allowed 9.61 yards per catch last week.
As mentioned above, this is also a great spot to stack Bucs players. Kansas City has dropped to 21st in sacks per game and are not getting pressure on the QB. Tom Brady ($6,600) may throw another bad INT here, but he should also have an easier time getting the ball to Antonio Brown ($5,700), who led the Bucs in targets against the Rams with 13 despite playing on just 58% of the snaps. Brown looks too cheap at under $6K and is a fine value add to any KC stack. The real upside from Tampa though might come from a running back. The Chiefs have allowed 4.6 YPC against this year (sixth-worst in the league) and have now given up three TDs to opposing RBs in their last two games. Ronald Jones has outplayed Leonard Fournette ($4,900) the last couple games, whose act should be wearing thin on coaches soon. Jones saw 24 touches and produced 192 rushing yards two games ago and after “TOMpa’s” terrible outing last Monday, Bruce Arians and company should be looking to get Jones lots of touches here against a bad rush defense.
Just Missed: Kyler Murray ($8,200) – DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100) – Damien Harris ($5,800)
Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos ($6,200)
Hill was a resounding success for the Saints and DFS players alike in Week 11, producing 25.42 DKFP against Atlanta. Hill had an easy opponent in the Falcons for his debut, but his 78% completion rate was still impressive, as was the fact he took 10 rushes and rushed for two TDs. He may not score two rushing TDs every game but that kind of volume on the ground makes him a valuable fantasy asset, regardless of opponent. Despite the Broncos’ solid showing against Miami last week we shouldn’t confuse them for a good team. They allowed Matt Ryan ($5,900) and Justin Herbert ($7,200) to both throw for three TDs a piece against them in Week 8 and 9, and also let Cam Newton ($6,400) go for 76 yards and a TD on the ground way back in Week 6. Hill’s price increase is going to get a lot of people avoiding him here but the Saints are still averaging the fifth-most points per game on offense and have a healthy implied team total of 24.75 points here. Hill could easily produce another solid fantasy performance in Week 12, and with much lower ownership expected on the rushing QB he makes for a solid target in big field GPPs.
Just Missed: Cam Newton ($6,400)
James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens ($6,200)
Editor’s note: Steelers RB James Conner has been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
Ravens vs. Steelers update: pic.twitter.com/k7SrKjanAl— DraftKings CX Team (@DK_Assist) November 27, 2020
The Steelers-Ravens game got pushed back to Sunday, and while it doesn’t stick out as a huge game of note for DFS purposes there are a couple viable plays that offer some upside for GPPs. The Ravens’ rush defense has been anything but shutdown the last couple weeks, allowing 5.1 YPC to opposing RBs over the last two games while ceding 100+ yard games to power backs Damien Harris ($5,800) and Derrick Henry ($7,900). Steelers lead back James Conner is coming off one of his better games of the year where he gained 99 all-purpose yards (89 on the ground) on just 16 touches against Jacksonville. With Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600) slightly banged up, a run-heavy approach from the Steelers here wouldn’t be shocking. If Conner gets off to a hot start he could be in for a big day against Baltimore and should be lowered owned for DFS purposes.
Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,600)
With the Browns taking on the Jaguars this week as 6.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, many will be looking to target the Cleveland rushers in DFS. Jacksonville has actually been surprisingly good at stuffing the run though, as they’re allowing just 4.3 YPC (14th best in the NFL) and haven’t allowed a 100+ yard rusher since Week 6. That doesn’t mean that the Browns’ RBs can’t have success here and it is worth noting that the Jags have allowed the fifth-most receptions to RBs this year and sixth-most DKFP per game to the position. Hunt is still playing more snaps than the newly returned Nick Chubb ($7,100)—Hunt played on 54% last week and Chubb played on 45%—and is also the only RB getting targets in the pass game. At a very palatable price, Hunt’s red zone usage (he got eight RZ touches last week) and PPR upside could make him the player to target on Cleveland this week in a solid matchup.
Just Missed: Austin Ekeler ($6,100-questionable)
Nelson Agholor, Las Vegas Raiders at Atlanta Falcons ($4,900)
At this point, it’s becoming a bit of a cliché, but everyone passes with success on the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints started a run-first QB last week, who was making his first official NFL start, and he still completed 78% of his passes—and had a long passing TD called back on a bogus hold. Atlanta gives up the third-most DKFP per game to opposing WRs and also allows the most yards per play on defense. This all spells big game for one or more of the Raiders’ WRs, and lately, Nelson Agholor has looked like their most explosive player on the outside. With everyone healthy, he led the entire team in targets while playing on 75% of the snaps against KC—which was 20% more than the next busiest WR. Even if this game draws attention of DFS aficionados it seems unlikely Agholor’s ownership will get too high, making him a great sub-$5K target in GPPs here.
Darius Slayton, New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals ($4,900)
Slayton has had a bit of a rough go of it lately. The second-year WR has seen inconsistent targeting and hasn’t caught a TD now in four games. Despite averaging under four catches a game in his last four starts, Slayton is getting lots of downfield looks and sits up around the league leaders in both air yards and yards per catch. New York is coming off a bye here and should be aiming to get Slayton more involved, especially against a Bengals pass defense which has now allowed eight TDs to the WR position over their last four games. Cincy has been decimated by big/fast WRs (like Slayton) and the fact that they rank fourth-last in the league in sacks per game should give Daniel Jones ($5,500) plenty of time to get the ball downfield here. Slayton may not project with a great floor but having already hit 23 or more DKFP points twice on the year, his upside here looks very juicy considering the sub-$5K price tag.
Just Missed: Robert Woods ($5,800)
Tyler Eifert, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns ($2,600)
Last week’s minimum-price baller at TE was a success, as Jordan Akins went for five receptions and 83 yards, making him the best pure value at the position. I’m sticking with the approach for this week and giving Tyler Eifert a chance here to beat up on a weak Browns coverage unit. Myles Garrett remains out for the Browns, which downgrades their effectiveness across the field and should give newly appointed starter Mike Glennon ($4,600) a little more time to get the football out. Eifert hasn’t found the endzone since Week 2, but he has seen 14 targets over the Jags’ last three games and faces a Browns team here who has given up the fourth-most TD catches and second-most receptions to TEs this year.
Glennon’s a wildcard, but he did target TEs on 14% of his passes with Chicago in 2017, which isn’t terrible. The bottom-line here is that Eifert is really the only pass catcher at TE for Jacksonville and could be viewed as a good outlet for Glennon based on Cleveland’s defensive tendencies. This is probably Eifert’s best shot at getting another TD on the season, and at such a low price, he’s worth deploying in GPPs here for the savings.
Just Missed: Austin Hooper ($3,800)
New York Jets ($2,100) vs. Miami Dolphins
This is “potentially” a good spot to deploy a near minimum price Jets DST. The Dolphins are coming off a road loss to a weak Denver team who got lucky to even beat the Jets themselves when they met in Week 4. Denver’s defense did a good job of undressing Miami’s lackluster offense last week, as the Dolphins’ absence of explosiveness at tailback, and their inexperience at QB, were exploited by the Broncos all game. The Jets’ secondary may have got ransacked by Justin Herbert ($7,200) last week but there’s much less chance they get exposed here. Tua Tagovailoa ($5,900) has looked mostly shaky and very inexperienced (and rusty) in three starts now and is also dealing with a thumb issue that limited his practice time early in the week.
The Jets actually landed three sacks last week and now get a far worse rookie QB with poor pocket presence to chase here. If you’re using the Jets’ DST you don’t need a hero 20+ point game but 10+ might actually be doable here as the struggling Dolphins offense is a pretty ripe target at the moment. The savings here warrant taking on the risk, and the added task of actually watching the Jets play this week.
Just missed: Las Vegas Raiders ($2,300)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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