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UFC Fight Night Picks: Top DraftKings DFS Fantasy MMA Targets, Values for November 28

Stephie Haynes gives her top picks and predictions for the UFC Fight Night DraftKings slate that takes place at 8:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 28.

UFC 250: Menifield v Clark Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Editor’s Note: Saturday’s UFC fight between Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis has been canceled after Blaydes tested positive for COVID-19, per ESPN’s Ariel Helwani.

On Saturday, the UFC puts on its 15th “Vegas” themed fight card with UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis. The event has some intriguing bouts among rising prospects and a couple of high value contests at the top of the main card. The co-main event features Anthony Smith taking on Devin Clark in what must be considered a rebound fight for Smith. By no means is this a guaranteed slam-dunk for Smith, but it’s certainly a step down from the Top 5 competition he’s been facing over his last five fights. The main event features a top contender’s bout between Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis. Both men are big finishers, but Blaydes has the not-so-secret weapon of superb wrestling to aid his game, a notable weakness for Lewis.

We’re going to take a quick dive into the standout fighters on this event that demonstrate why they’re either worth their big DraftKings price tags or why they’re the best value going. Let’s get started.

DraftKings users can enter to win big prizes in Saturday’s fantasy MMA $350K Throwdown contest, which pays out a guaranteed $350,000, including $100K to first place. Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: MMA $350K Throwdown [$100K to 1st].

Place your UFC bets at the DraftKings Sportsbook UFC page and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.


Curtis Blaydes, $9,300

Editor’s Note: Saturday’s UFC fight between Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis has been canceled after Blaydes tested positive for COVID-19, per ESPN’s Ariel Helwani.

Blaydes is a very big threat in the heavyweight division. Having logged only two losses, both to the biggest puncher in the sport, Francis Ngannou, Blaydes lies perched on the edge of title contention, right on the cusp, but not quite in range—yet. His performance against Alexander Volkov might not have had the action that fans crave, but it was a demoralizing beating just the same, and Volkov very much added to the stalemate with his own willingness to stall and make the fight an ugly grinder. “Razor’s” wrestling is a tour-de-force, and we all know that Lewis’ Kryptonite is his lack of wrestling and takedown defense. Curtis also has a heater of his own and has finished 10 opponents via knockout. Derrick Lewis isn’t to be taken lightly, especially with the hammer of a right he routinely cracks skulls with, but this fight really is Blaydes’ to lose.

Miguel Baeza, $8,700

Baeza is one of two really talented prospects on this card that have my attention. He’s patient (maybe to a fault) and measured but seems to have a nose for when to forge through and create mayhem with a heavy right hand. Miguel is undefeated right now, with seven of his nine wins coming by knockout. He’s taking on another big puncher in Takashi Sato ($7,500), but in an unusual twist of fate, Sato is also patient to a fault. Two patient guys with big punching power. Talk about matching style for style! Baeza seems to have good fight IQ and instincts to go along with a 4-inch height and 1-inch reach advantage over the Japanese native. This is a really well-matched fight, but I’m leaning towards Baeza claiming another big finish.

Kai Kamaka, $9,200

Kamaka is the other mega-talented prospect I’ve got my eye on from this show. An orthodox volume striker, Kai sports a respectable 61% accuracy rate and lands an astounding 7.60 strikes per minute. The downside is that he also absorbs that same exact amount in those 60 seconds, so defensive fortitude isn’t a developed area quite yet. He’s 25, though, so perhaps he’ll shore up that weakness along the way. Kamaka will be at a 5-inch height deficit, but will have the edge in cardio, I believe, thanks to Pearce making the drop down to 145 for the first time in four years. Kamaka also has an undervalued grappling game with powerful takedowns. In his fight with Tony Kelley, he scored five takedowns off five attempts. Jonathan Pearce ($7,000) is very talented in his own right, and also a high volume striker, but his knockout loss to a very faded Joe Lauzon last year has me thinking that Kamaka will end up getting the win here. Notable: Kamaka is on a 6-fight win streak.


Bill Algeo, $7,300

Algeo is a fun switch fighter who uses an insane pace and constant pressure as the foundation of his style. Averaging 7.87 strikes per minute to Spike Carlyle’s ($8,900) 3.47, Algeo’s pace will force Spike to keep up and that could be the beginning of the end for the “Alpha Ginger.” Carlysle is a bundle of tightly wound energy who appears to not really have a game plan or even a set direction to go in his fights. He is all instinct and forward motion, a coiled snake, angry and ready to strike. Both men are defensively porous, so expect lots of standing and banging with not much mind to protecting their chins. While this makes for a fun fight, we haven’t even gotten to the fact that both men are very good on the ground, so you can also expect lots of fun scrambles and smooth transitions. Algeo is an excellent clinch fighter, as is Carlyle, but with the extra inches on his frame, we could see Algeo choose a more tactical approach and fight at range. Either way, I think he has more upside than Carlyle, hence the pick.

Devin Clark, $7,700

Clark is a fairly talented wrestler who has managed to get in his own way by being too aggressive in his quest for finishes. All the same, he still has the physicality to make for some spicy ground exchanges, especially since Anthony Smith ($8,500) hasn’t looked at the top of his game in quite some time. With only one win in his last four fights, “Lionheart” is in a situation where this could be a “must win” for him. Smith has an impressive ground game, but strong wrestlers give him troubles, as Jon Jones, Glover Teixeira and Aleksandar Rakic all managed to do. Clark has a pretty sturdy chin, so even if Anthony lands, we may see that “The Brown Bear” takes it in stride. Devin isn’t exactly defensively sound, nor is he considered to be a finishing threat, but there’s a decent chance that Smith has eroded to the point that Devin Clark, in this raw, unrefined state, can get a win over a man that just competed for the title last year.

Set your DraftKings fantasy MMA lineups here: MMA $350K Throwdown [$100K to 1st].

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is crooklyn949) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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