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NFL Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for Week 12

Steve Buchanan breaks down the Week 12 DraftKings NFL slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

No one cares about the intro to an article. So just go ahead and read what I wrote below for Week 12.

Feel free to drop me a follow on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

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Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Favorite

San Francisco 49ers (+255) at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5; -295)

This is one of the “lowest” favorites we’ve seen so far this season on DraftKings Sportsbook. Usually, we get one of those massive -500 or -600 favorites on a slate but we have none of that in Week 12.

The Rams come into this game riding a two-game winning streak over the Seahawks and Buccaneers while also covering the spread in both games. The Rams are 6-4 ATS overall and 3-1 as home favorites, covering by an average margin of +2.0 points in that scenario. Against the spread, the 49ers are 2-3 as underdogs and 1-2 as road underdogs.

This game sets up well for the Rams, as their secondary has been playing extremely well and they’ve been able to stop the run efficiently. Mix that in with Jared Goff ($6,000) playing extremely well as of late and the Rams are in a prime spot to win. Over his last three games, Goff has thrown for over 300 yards with a 67% completion percentage, four touchdowns and four interceptions. The 49ers’ pass rush continues to be near the bottom of the league, which plays in perfectly for Goff. When working with a clean pocket, Goff has an 85.8% adjusted completion percentage with 13 of his 16 touchdowns thrown and an average of 8.7 yards per pass attempt.

Other notable favorites: Miami Dolphins (-286; -7) vs. New York Jets (+245), Cleveland Browns (-275; -6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+230)

Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Kansas City Chiefs (29.5 points; -3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (26.5 points) 56 points

Gone seem to be the days where the Buccaneers’ defense was one you didn’t go out of your way to target against. On the season, they still are allowing an average of just 23 points per game but over their last three games, that number has jumped up to an average of 29.3 points. Now they have the task of stopping the Chiefs, who are averaging a league-leading 32.1 points per game and 34.3 over their last three.

The Bucs’ secondary just got ripped apart by the Rams, allowing 314 (!) receiving yards on 27 catches and two touchdowns. Targeting slot receivers on the opposing offense has been the key to success, a la Cooper Kupp ($6,400) last week. CB Sean Murphy-Bunting has been the primary slot “defender” and has been targeted against 42 times, allowing 36 receptions for 399 yards, 240 of which have come after the catch. He has also allowed three touchdowns scored. Tyreek Hill ($7,800) is the primary slot receiver for the Chiefs, playing 54% of his snaps there. Mecole Hardman ($4,200) is second in overall snaps in the slot but he only played on 24 snaps last week, seven of which were in the slot. This is shaping up for another big week for the Chiefs.

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DVP Matchups

Worst QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens 15.2, 1st
San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, 15.7, 2nd
Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, 16.7, 4th

Best QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, 28.8, 32nd
Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, 24.6 30th
Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, 24.1, 29th

Worst RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Denver Broncos, New Orleans Saints, 17.5, 1st
Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, 17.7, 2nd
San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, 20, 4th

Best RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Atlanta Falcons, Las Vegas Raiders, 28.7, 29th
Minnesota Vikings, Carolina Panthers, 27.8, 28th
Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, 27.4, 27th

Worst WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, 29.7, 1st
Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, 31.9, 4th
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kansas City Chiefs, 32.2, 5th

Best WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, 45.8, 31st
Carolina Panthers, Minnesota Vikings, 44.2, 30th
Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, 44.1, 29th

Worst TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco 49ers, 7.8, T-1st
Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, 7.8, T-1st
Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots, 9.5, T-4th

Best TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Las Vegas Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, 16.6, 32nd
Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills , 15.9, 31st
Jacksonville Jaguars, Cleveland Browns, 15.8, 30th

Target Report

Last Week’s Target Leaders

Week 17 Playoff Implications

Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Dalls Cowboys New York Giants DAL -3 45 Winner goes to playoffs if PHI beats WAS
Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers CLE -9 42 CLE W needed
Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills BUF -3.5 43 MIA W needed
Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals BAL -12.5 44 BAL W needed
Arizona Cardinals LA Rams ARI -3.5 40.5 Winner goes to playoffs
Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts IND -14 49.5 IND W needed
Tennesse Titans Houston Texans TEN -7.5 56 TEN W to clinch AFC South
Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears GB -5.5 51 GB W locks No.1 Seed & Bye
New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers NO -6.5 47.5 NO shot at No.1 Seed
Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers SEA -6.5 46 SEA shot at No.1 Seed

DraftKings Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $8,000 — It’s tough to pay for Mahomes and Hill but I truly think it’ll be worth it. As I mentioned, this Buccaneers secondary has been crumbling lately and just allowed 376 passing yards, three touchdowns and 28.04 DKFP to Jared Goff. For as good as the Bucs’ pass rush has been, they only had Goff under pressure on 27% of his drop backs. Even when Mahomes has been under pressure, he still boasts a 61.1% adjusted completion percentage, 7.0 YPA and five touchdowns thrown. When he has a clean pocket, he has a 82.3% adjusted completion percentage, 8.5 YPA and 22 touchdowns thrown with zero interceptions. If the Bucs’ secondary and defensive line continues to struggle, this is a big spot for Mahomes.

Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $7,800 — We talked about how good Hill’s matchup is earlier so I don’t want to go over that again too much. That said, I can’t stress how good of a matchup this is for Hill, who has seen double-digit targets in three of his last four games. The biggest factor for me is how much of the receiving yards Sean Murphy-Bunting is giving up after the catch, as the 240 yards he’s allowed after the catch accounts for 60% of the 399 yards he’s given up. Hill is currently 20th in the league in YAC with 230, which is 30% of his overall total. With his speed, Murphy-Bunting has almost no chance of stopping Hill.

Top Running Back To Consider

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers, $9,500 — I know I’m giving you a number of expensive options this week but it’s truly impossible to ignore the matchup that Cook is about to embark on. The Panthers continue to be one of the worst run defenses in the league and now have to face the Vikings at home as 3.5 point dogs. Cook continues to be the most consistent back in the league and has scored in every game but one this season. Carrying the ball at least 22 times in four-straight games, he faces a Panthers defense that is allowing an average of 102 rushing yards and 4.7 YPC per game. Even before this matchup, Cook is averaging over 5.3 YPC. This is such a smash spot and the ownership on Cook is likely going to be high but he’s a cash game lock in Week 12.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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