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NFL Week 12 Odds: Line Movement, DraftKings Sportsbook Football Betting Analysis

Matt Meiselman gives football betting analysis and insight for Week 12 of the NFL, including line movement and betting splits.

Week 12 in the NFL has already undergone two schedule changes with the Steelers and Ravens, while plenty of other teams are facing key injuries of their own. Besides the one game getting moved to Tuesday, it’s a full week of NFL games headlined by a few matchups with significant playoff implications. The Colts and Titans will square off in a key battle for AFC South position, the Bears will have their last shot to inch closer to the Packers in the NFC North and the Buccaneers will host the Chiefs in the game with the highest total of Week 12. There are sure to be more changes to the odds with injury news to come before Sunday, so check back here for the updates before kickoff.


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Sunday Line Movement Update

  • The Raiders have reached 3 12 point road favorites in Atlanta, seemingly because Julio Jones is inactive today. The line had already reached 3 but its continuing upward with the Jones update.
  • The biggest line movement story of the week is clearly the Saints, who are now 16 12 point favorites in Denver with a total of just 37. The Broncos notably have no quarterbacks that are eligible for this game, so the correction here is justifiably large.
  • One other game of note is that the 49ers have moved from +7 to +5.5 for their road matchup with the Rams. Most of the betting is on the Rams, but the handle is skewing a little more towards San Francisco.

Betting Splits Breakdown

It’s the same story, as usual, this NFL season with DraftKings Sportsbook bettors strongly preferring road favorites, but there’s one team in particular that stands out as a surprising public favorite. The Giants opened at -4.5 against the Bengals this week, but have moved to -6.5 behind some severely lopsided betting. None of this actually has anything to do with Joe Burrow — as the Bengals likely would have been favorites with Burrow starting — so the -4.5 number was already accounting for his absence. The Giants are simply getting an overwhelming share of the handle at 95% — the most of any team in Week 12.


How the Lines are Moving

Spreads

New York Giants (-4.5 to -6.5)

Totals

Las Vegas Raiders at Atlanta Falcons (56 to 53)

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (46.5 to 44.5)

Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (53 to 56)

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles (52 to 50)

The Giants’ line movement is very significant, as mentioned above, but that’s really the only game seeing much of a change in the point spread. Most of the other line movement in Week 12 is coming from totals and most of those are totals that are falling. The one exception here is the Chiefs/Bucs game, where the total has gone up three points, and it seems like both of these teams are struggling on defense in recent games. The Chiefs in particular have allowed 30-plus points in consecutive games to the Panthers and Raiders, so recent performance appears to have DraftKings Sportsbook bettors looking to the over in this one.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.