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Fantasy Football Picks: Bears vs. Packers DraftKings NFL DFS SNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Sunday’s 8:20 p.m. ET contest between the Bears and the Packers with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

This is most certainly a place I didn’t think I would find myself in at any point of 2020, but I’m actually sort of excited to see Mitch Trubisky ($9,200) start for the Chicago Bears in Sunday’s tilt against the Green Bay Packers. Well, I guess I should say that I’m relived we won’t be seeing another primetime Nick Foles (hip) performance, after he stunk up the joint a few Mondays back. So, can the Bears and their former first-round pick find a way to stay alive in the NFC playoff race?

Let’s dive in and break it all down from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Sunday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st + $50K 1st TD Bonus]


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Aaron Rodgers ($17,100 CP) - It’s always tough to decide which high-end Packers’ asset you want to Captain on a given slate, but I’d argue Rodgers’ elite mixture of floor and ceiling are difficult to top. In fact, if you go back to the beginning of Week 3, the veteran quarterback leads the NFL in touchdown passes (23), while he sits second to only Kyler Murray in terms of fantasy points scored per drop back (0.64). Heck, for the season as a whole, Rodgers has only failed to produce at least 23.5 DKFP twice in 10 starts, with his lone game below 19.0 DKFP coming against a Buccaneers defense that currently ranks second in the NFL in DVOA. Davante Adams ($12,600) has more pure upside and Aaron Jones ($10,400) will surely carry the lowest ownership of the trio, but give me Rodgers in what’s easily been his best campaign since 2016.

David Montgomery ($13,200 CP) - Montgomery in a vacuum isn’t all that impressive, but the circumstances surrounding the RB heading into Sunday’s contest are tantalizing. First and foremost, after missing Chicago’s last game with a concussion, the 23-year-old practiced in full all week long and appears to be ready to go in Week 12. Now, it’s not yet known if Montgomery’s role will change at all following his injury — or if the presence of the more mobile Trubisky will have an impact on his volume — but the potential for a huge performance is easy to see. In the five games Montgomery’s finished since Tarik Cohen (knee) went on IR, he’s not logged fewer than 80% of the Bears’ offensive snaps and he’s averaged 5.8 targets. That’s rarified air among running backs in 2020. I like Montgomery’s chances to finally make good on his massive opportunity in a meeting with a Packers D/ST ($4,200) that’s allowed a 90-yard rusher in four of its past five matchups. Green Bay’s also surrendered the fourth-most DKFP to opposing RBs for the season.



FLEX Plays

Allen Lazard ($6,800) - Trusting secondary receiving options on the Packers’ depth chart is sometimes a tough pill to swallow. Yes, Rodgers’ general brilliance raises the ceiling of everyone on his team, but almost half of Green Bay’s targets this season have been directed towards Adams or Jones — with the former leading the NFL in target share at a whopping 32.6%. Still, Lazard’s path to DFS relevance in Week 12 seems relatively cut and dry. After sustaining an Achilles injury mid-week, there are some serious question marks about the availability of Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7,200) for Sunday night’s matchup, while Equanimeous St. Brown ($2,000) is also questionable due to a knee issue. If both wideouts sit, Lazard should be in line for a huge snap count, likely something similar to the almost 90% share he saw in the Packers’ first three games of 2020.

Packers D/ST ($4,200) - Look, I’m not going to sit here are wax poetic about how great Green Bay’s defense is. The truth of the matter is the unit has some serious holes, specifically when it comes to stopping the run. On top of that, after racking up 12.0 sacks in 2019, Preston Smith has been a massive disappointment in 2020 for a team that’s seen its adjusted sack rate dip considerably. Still, defensive viability in Showdown is a two-way street. The Bears come into this matchup ranking dead-last among NFC squads in yards per drive (28.4), points per drive (1.59) and touchdowns per drive (0.16). Trubisky has also managed 32 interceptions and 22 fumbles in his 45 career NFL games. It’s not a stretch to envision things getting ugly for Chicago.

Anthony Miller ($3,000) - As mentioned above, it’s impossible to know how Matt Nagy’s offense will differ from recent weeks with Trubisky now under center. So, with that being the case, let’s take a quick look at how No. 1 wide receivers have fared going against Green Bay and Jaire Alexander. Dating back to Week 4, the Packers have faced the likes of Adam Thielen (3-27-0), Will Fuller (3-35-1), Mike Evans (1-10-0) and Julio Jones (4-32-0), with no one in that talented quartet doing much of anything by game’s end. Though Alexander doesn’t technically shadow, that’ll likely be the fate of Allen Robinson ($10,000) this weekend, which should open up a few opportunities for skill-position players such as Miller. It’s not like he really need the help, either, with Miller leading the Bears in targets across their past three contests (26). Darnell Mooney ($4,800) — Chicago’s deep threat — is another viable option in this regard.


Fades

Allen Robinson ($10,000) - I’ve already sort of covered how I feel about using a WR1 against Green Bay, yet if you needed more reason to steer clear of Robinson, simply remember how disappointing the wideout’s first two-and-a-half games of the season were. Robinson managed just eight receptions and 18.6 DKFP with Trubisky starting at QB in Week 1 and Week 2, while a majority of his success in Week 3 came after the switch to Foles — not to mention in a matchup with Atlanta’s awful secondary. A five-digit salary would be a lot to spend on any receiver, but especially one playing for a team with the lowest implied point total of Week 12. There’s just better places to utilize your funds on Sunday.


THE OUTCOME

To keep things brief, this just seems like a spot where the Packers bounce back. I mean, if recent history is any indication, they’re pretty great at doing exactly that. Green Bay comes into the week 7-0 ATS following its past seven straight up losses. On the other side of the coin, the Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against opponents with winning records. I might be happy not have to watch Nick Foles on Sunday, but it’s not like that’s a ringing endorsement of Mitchell Trubisky, either.

Final Score: Green Bay 27, Chicago 13

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Sunday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st + $50K 1st TD Bonus]


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.