Week 9 features four teams on a bye week: the Eagles, Rams, Browns and Bengals. The main slate on DraftKings features 11 games, with three games taking place in the late window. Let’s take a look at three players who saw some big movements in DraftKings salary ahead of this slate.
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Keenan Allen ($7,000) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Week 8 Salary: $6,200 ($800 increase)
We don’t have any massive jumps like we did last week, where some players were jumping almost $2K in salary. Nonetheless, Allen takes one of the biggest leaps ahead of the Chargers’ matchup against the Raiders. They continue to be the Falcons 2.0 in the sense that they keep losing games they should be winning. Thankfully, wins or losses don’t really matter in terms of fantasy output, as Allen continues to be the bonafide WR1 in this offense and it’s not even close.
In terms of target share, it’s basically Allen and then the rest of the team. He owns a 30% share, which is almost double that of Hunter Henry ($4,000), who sits at 18.6%. It’s the same situation for red zone targets as well, with Allen drawing a 25% share compared to Henry, who is second at 14.3%. While Allen primarily plays wide left, he was in the slot for 52 snaps in Week 8, which accounted for 61% of his snaps. It’s the most we’ve seen him in the slot, which includes last season as well. It’s yet to be seen if it’s more of an outlier or not but it would certainly give him better matchups.
Regardless of where Allen is lining up, he takes on a Raiders secondary that’s allowed an average of 23.9 DKFP to opposing receivers and a 65.1% catch rate. If Allen is indeed in the slot again, he’ll match up against CB Lamarcus Joyner, who has allowed 22 receptions on 32 targets for 250 yards, 131 of which have come after the catch.
Marvin Jones Jr. ($5,100) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Week 8 Salary: $4,200 ($900 increase)
You probably didn’t notice, but Jones quietly had a big game against the Colts last week, scoring two touchdowns despite making just three receptions. His 18.9 DKFP total was his best of the season against what is a very tough Colts secondary. Now, heading into Week 9, he’s looking as if he’ll receive top billing among the Lions’ receivers, as Kenny Golladay is looking doubtful to play with a hip injury.
With Golladay exiting this game, the target share focused on three players, T.J. Hockenson ($5,100) at 25% and Jones and Marvin Hall at 17.5%. While Hockenson is also a great play, Jones has the benefit of feasting against a Vikings secondary that’s been one of the most generous to opposing receivers, allowing an average of 48.1 DKFP, 199 receiving yards and a league-leading 15 touchdowns scored. Like Allen, Jones moves around the field a lot but his primary spot is wide right. It almost doesn’t matter the matchup, as the Vikings’ secondary continues to deal with injuries and overall poor play. While he hasn’t been on the radar much this season, plenty of attention will be on him here in a fantastic matchup.
Mark Andrews ($4,800) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Week 8 Salary: $5,800 (-$1,000 decrease)
Taking one of the biggest dives in salary this week (among players you’ll actually play), Andrews takes a $1K dive ahead of the Ravens’ matchup against the Colts. Numbers against tight ends should always be taken with a grain of salt, in my opinion, as some teams simply don’t utilize the position, which drives down the fantasy points allowed. With that in mind, the Colts are a good example of that, as opposing tight ends have averaged 6.7 targets per game. Of that, they’ve averaged only 6.7 DKFP, 31.7 receiving yards and have yet to score.
The problem here is that if Andrews isn’t scoring, he’s simply not scoring fantasy points on his receptions. In the four games Andrews was held out of the end zone, he’s averaging just 4.8 DKFP. In the game he has scored, he’s averaging 20.3 DKFP. Quite the difference, right? His 39.3 yards per game is simply not enough to take a chance on him when his salary was as high as it was, going as high as $6,500 in Week 6. While Andrews dominates in red zone target share at 36%, his touchdown-or-bust output makes him a risky play, especially in this matchup.
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