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DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Trends and Early NFL Predictions for Week 13

Steve Buchanan analyzes three fantasy football player performances from Week 12 and gives his take on if it’ll continue or not in Week 13.

There is nothing better than some overreactions after the dust settles on a football Sunday. All of us armchair quarterbacks go and make our critiques and tell all our friends and family about what we would have done differently.

The great thing for me is, they asked me to do this and YOU’RE sitting here reading it! How about that?

For this piece, each week we’ll take a look at some players that either potentially overachieved or underachieved and what the outlook for them is moving forward — specifically for next week’s game. Are they set up for more success or could someone have simply had a bad week? My job here is to try and figure that out and relay that information to you. Let’s take a look!

Oh, feel free to tell me how wrong I am by getting at me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

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Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns
Week 12 Fantasy Total: 31.3 DKFP

Landry was one of the highest scoring receivers of Week 12 but his performance was easily overshadowed by Tyreek Hill ($7,800; 60.9 DKFP), who put on a show against the Buccaneers. So don’t feel bad if you didn’t notice Landry made eight catches for 143 yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars. Quite frankly, we should expect performances like this against the Jaguars, who are quickly turning into one of the worst secondaries in the league. After this week, opposing receivers have gone over 200 receiving yards in four of their last five games with at least a touchdown scored in all of them.

Week 13 brings another enticing matchup for Landry, going up against another poor secondary in the Titans. Landry moves all over the field, nearly splitting his snaps evenly between the slot (45%) and wide (51%). Regardless of where he’s lined up, this Titans secondary allows an average of 42.1 DKFP (26th), 184 receiving yards (26th) and 11 total touchdowns scored (T-14th) to WR, putting Landy in good position this week. Landry has also been a target monster since Odell Beckham Jr. went down for the season, seeing two weeks of a 40%+ target share and averaging 30.2% in four weeks sans Beckham. His $1,000 bump in salary to $6,200, however, takes away his value status.


Collin Johnson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 12 Fantasy Total: 19.6 DKFP

I think it’s fair to say that no one was looking toward Johnson to be the receiver to step up in Week 12. With the Jags down both DJ Chark and Chris Conley, it was Johnson who caught the eye of Mike Glennon. Johnson only made four catches on eight targets but he made those receptions count, going for 96 yards and a touchdown. It was a perfect matchup for Johnson on the 46-yard touchdown, as he only had to beat Browns safety Karl Joseph in coverage.

Johnson would presumably be back in a prominent role in Week 13 if Chark was once again ruled out, but that has yet to be determined. Chark is dealing with a rib injury, which can always be a nagging one, especially at his position. The other factor to consider is who’ll be under center for the Jags. Coach Doug Marrone said that the good performance from Glennon will hinder his decision for Week 13, which is a favorable matchup against the Vikings. Johnson lined up on the majority of his snaps on the left side, meaning should he be back in a primary role, which would draw coverage against cornerback Kris Boyd. Boyd has been targeted against 29 times, allowing 22 receptions for an average of 14 YPR. At just $3,300, Johnson could be a solid value if it works out that he’s back in this offense.


DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
Week 12 Fantasy Total: 10.5 DKFP

Hopkins put together another clunker in Week 12, scoring just 10.5 DKFP by making five catches on seven targets for 55 yards. Over his last four games, Hopkins hasn’t scored more than 10.5 DKFP, aside from his huge 28.7 DKFP game against the Bills. Over that span, however, he’s averaging just 13.8 DKFP, which has lead to his salary dropping to $7,800 in Week 13. While it’s not a cheap price by any means, Hopkins is now the fourth-most expensive receiver on the slate.

As expected, Stephon Gilmore was shadowing Hopkins, keeping him mainly out of this game. Hopkins has been drawing some tough coverage as of late and Week 13 won’t get much easier. He should once again be shadowed and he’ll be seeing CB Jalen Ramsey this week. Ramsey has been great in coverage and has been targeted against 41 times, allowing just 21 receptions for an average of 9.8 YPR. While we like to think that Hopkins is nearly matchup proof, that hasn’t been the case as of late. It doesn’t shy Kyler Murray from targeting Hopkins, who despite just over a 13 DKFP average over his last four games is also averaging a 22.2% target share in that span. Nonetheless, this could once again be a week where expectations on Hopkins should be tempered.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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