Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here most weeks too, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.
Justin Herbert ($6,800) – Keenan Allen ($7,000) – Mike Williams ($5,100) – Nelson Agholor ($4,700)
The Raiders-Chargers game features two weak secondaries, a couple of failing pass rushes and a game total currently set at 52 on DraftKings Sportsbook, all which makes this very fertile ground for game-stacking in GPPs this week. Vegas comes in ranked fourth-last in adjusted sack rate and third-last in sacks recorded on the year, making another explosive game from Justin Herbert here likely. Herbert’s thrown for three or more TDs now in his last four games and has also posted 87 rushing yards in his last two contests. While he’s starting catch on as a play among the masses he was again not in the top three in ownership in the DraftKings Milly Maker last week.
Stacking Herbert is also becoming more appealing as it’s started to become more apparent that he and Mike Williams have a connection. Williams and his QB have gone for three TDs now over the last three games, and he’s averaged 19.7 yards per catch in that span. Despite nearly hitting the DraftKings bonus in two of his last three games, his price here remains exceedingly cheap against a Raiders secondary that had allowed six TDs to opposing WRs in its previous three games before getting some reprieve from the weather in Week 8. Running mate Keenan Allen is likely to be heavy chalk again, but his matchup against slot corner Lamarcus Joyner, who has the seventh-worst grade at corner on PFF, is worth eating it for. Allen is also now third in targets this season and caught 19 passes the last two games.
On the other side, the Raiders’ volume in the pass game is harder to pin down, but don’t be shocked if we see a bounce back of sorts from Nelson Agholor here. He didn’t see catch a pass last week (two targets) but saw nine targets the week before in a shootout with Tampa and still led all Raiders WRs in snaps played last week. The Chargers just traded away one of their cornerbacks and have allowed five TDs to the WR position now in their last four games. Other players to consider for game stacking purposes here include Henry Ruggs ($4,900), who played 75% of the snaps last week, and RB Justin Jackson ($4,900). Jackson led the backfield for L.A. last week with 20 touches and has a terrific matchup here against the Raiders’ bottom dwelling rush defense.
Just Missed: Josh Allen ($7,000) — Stefon Diggs ($7,400) — Tyler Lockett ($6,800)
Drew Lock, Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons ($5,200)
Lock came to life in the second half of last week’s win over the Chargers. The Broncos’ QB rebounded from two poor games over which he threw four INTs to toss three three TDs vs. Los Angeles, including the game winner as time expired. Lock still hasn’t played a complete game yet in 2020, but it’s likely not prudent to avoid him this week on that basis alone. The Atlanta Falcons are allowing the most DKFP per game to opposing QBs this season and have allowed the most passing yards overall as well. Atlanta showed better fight on defense last week vs. Carolina but still ranks seventh-last in adjusted sack rate on the season.
Lock’s no lock to go off here but a solid game script for some big production from him definitely exists. The Broncos enter as 3.5-point underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook and should also be getting WR Tim Patrick ($4,900) back for this game, with whom Lock connected for four receptions and 101 yards against New England. The two make a great, cheap stacking combo here against such a poor secondary, although Lock’s price—his second cheapest of the year—means he could be played on his own as well.
Just Missed: Nick Foles ($5,500)
Chase Edmonds, Arizona Cardinals vs. Miami Dolphins ($6,800)
With Kenyan Drake likely to miss this game, Chase Edmunds should be on tap here to dominate the snaps and get a bell cow-like workload. While he was the unofficial backup to the now injured Kenyan Drake, Edmunds was still leading all the Cardinals RBs in passing targets and routes run on the year and comes into this game having compiled 32 targets and 26 receptions on the season—which is actually good for third most on the team in both categories. From an eye-test perspective, Edmunds has also looked like the more explosive back for Arizona all season and he’s averaged 6.1 yards per carry on the year, which is nearly two yards more than Drake has averaged.
The Dolphins have been a better defense in 2020 than most people have given them credit for being, but their flaw has been defending against the run. Miami ranks third-last in YPC allowed at 4.9 and has allowed the seventh-most DKFP per game to the RB position this year. With the Cardinals favored by 4.5-points on DraftKings Sportsbook and Edmunds almost certain to fall into 20+ touches, a massive game could transpire here for the second-year player who broke a slate around this time last year when he went for three TDs and 100+ yards against the Giants.
Just Missed: Matt Breida ($4,000)
Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans ($6,900)
Robinson is starting to get a reputation as Mr. Disrespected around the league as he’s been saddled with poor QB play for most of his college and NFL career, yet he has remained one of the top producers over the last couple of seasons at his position. While he’s not perfect, one thing that Nick Foles ($5,500) has done for Robinson is get him the ball. Robinson remains a complete target monster for DFS purposes as he’s averaging right around 10 targets per game since Week 3 and gets a matchup this week that should have him drooling. The Titans’ secondary has been beaten pretty soundly this year by opposing WRs, to the point where they’ve now allowed the second-most DKFP and second-most receptions to the WR position this year.
Robinson sets up to have a three-inch height and 20-pound weight advantage over Titans corner Malcolm Butler, and will have a pretty similar advantage over any of the Tennessee corners he may end up against on Sunday. Teams have averaged 39.4 pass attempts against Tennessee this year—the second highest in the league—and with their team lacking virtually any pass rush, seeing Robinson and Foles combine for a big day wouldn’t be shocking. The low sentiment on the Bears’ offense, as a whole, should also keep his ownership levels down which makes him a great pay-up target in Week 9 in GPPs.
Just Missed: Tim Patrick ($4,900-questionable)
Trey Burton, Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens ($3,500)
Targeting any receiver for the Colts this year has led to headaches, as new QB Philip Rivers ($5,600) has chosen to spread the ball around as much as possible. No WR has caught more than five passes for Indy since Parris Campbell’s Week 1 game, but Campbell’s absence has opened up some opportunity for an athletic player like Burton, who has now scored three TDs in the last two weeks—two of which have been on the ground. Burton’s versatility has also led to him getting consistent looks from Rivers when he’s on the field as he’s averaging five targets per game over the Colts’ last four contests.
The matchup here is also better than it appears. Baltimore has given up the 12th-most receptions to the TE position this season and four TDs as well, including one to another athletic TE last week in Eric Ebron ($4,500). With Rivers going up against a solid Ravens pass rush and a good group of corners here, expecting Burton to act as his QB’s primary receiver in this game isn’t that far-fetched. Rivers has targeted his TE group eight times per game in 2020, and with Burton coming into this week having seen five red zone touches over his last three games, his upside here at just $3.5K in price looks solid enough to target him as a standalone value in GPPs this week.
Just Missed: Albert Okwuegbunam ($2,800)
Arizona Cardinals ($2,900) vs. Miami Dolphins
The Cardinals are coming off a bye here and an impressive win against Seattle in their last game. Their defense will be nearly back to full health, and they were able to pressure one of the best QBs in the league in Russell Wilson ($7,600) into three INTs and two sacks in Week 7. Rookie Tua Tagovailoa ($5,500) may have won his first game last week but looked sketchy at times in the pocket and completed just 54% of his passes against the Rams.
Arizona’s defense has been underrated for most of the year and comes in ranked 10th in defensive DVOA (via Football Outsiders) and with eight sacks and five INTs over their last three games. The Dolphins have also been terrible at running the ball, ranking fifth-last in rushing yards on the year, which means CB Patrick Peterson and S Budda Baker should have solid opportunities at adding to the team’s turnover numbers. Miami’s played the NFC West extremely well in 2020 but this week they have to travel West with a QB who will be making his first road start in the NFL. The opportunity exists here for an underrated unit to make a big statement game and vault the Cardinals into the elite team conversation.
Just missed: Minnesota Vikings ($2,400)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.