There’s weird games to bet, and then there’s this game. Both teams are dealing with COVID-19 issues and injuries, but the 49ers have been hammered by both to the extreme. The lookahead line on this game was a pick’em just four days ago, and now here we are with San Francisco 7.5-point home underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total has also been bet down to 48.5 given the lack of offensive weapons in uniform. Here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook for this game.
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Set your DraftKings TNF fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Thursday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (GB vs SF)
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers
UNDER 48.5 (-110)
We’ve lost some value on the opening number here, but we’ve also gained a ton of information in terms of who’s been ruled out. Green Bay should have the majority of its offense, but will be very thin at RB. San Francisco is playing a backup at literally every skill position and should have some serious trouble moving the ball. I thought about just targeting the team total here, but the Niners will do their best to run the ball down the Packers’ throat, as they did in the NFC Championship game. I think that helps grind clock for the full game total here. Throw the numbers from the season out the window in this kind of game — a short week with both teams battling injuries and COVID-19 concerns. Fun fact about that dominant NFC Championship victory for the 49ers — given the injuries, the Niners won’t have a single skill player on the active roster on Thursday that touched the ball in that game.
Davante Adams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-162)
If Aaron Jones winds up out or limited at all, it strengthens this play, but I’m confident in it either way. This is Aaron Rodgers’ go-to-guy, and the connection has been relatively matchup proof. Adams has an insane seven touchdowns in five games this season, and the production has actually been more impressive than it sounds. He scored those seven touchdowns in three games, and the two games he failed to score in were in Week 2, when he departed very early in the game with an injury, and Week 6 — his first game back from injury, and against Tampa’s top-ranked defense. Even battling through significant wind last week, Adams found the end zone three times and was a big piece of the game plan from the goal line. I trust the Packers to keep giving Adams the same insane usage in this game, even if Jones is back. A sprinkle on the first touchdown at +550 is worth considering.
Jerick McKinnon Receiving Yards: OVER 21.5 (-150)
Initially, I had this play as McKinnon over 51.5 combined yards at -112, which avoids laying some of the juice. While I still like the play, and feel McKinnon has to be more involved in the run game with this depleted roster, I still can’t ignore three carries for -1 yard in consecutive games. So let’s just lay the juice and target the area of the offense we know McKinnon will be involved. In the two starts McKinnon got earlier in the season, he finished with three receptions for 39 yards on four targets against the Giants, and seven receptions for 43 yards on eight targets against the Eagles. His role has been cloudy since then, but San Francisco needed him last week with the lack of bodies. McKinnon was the full-time passing down RB last week against Seattle and brought in all four of his targets for 40 yards. With huge downgrades at WR this week, I’d expect a boost in targets for McKinnon, as well as a positive game-script for checkdowns, with the Niners sitting as dogs of more than a touchdown. If I lay down just one bet in a game that’s looking pretty difficult to get a feel for, this would be my play.
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Set your DraftKings TNF fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Thursday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (GB vs SF)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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