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NFL Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for Week 9

Steve Buchanan breaks down the Week 9 DraftKings NFL slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

I’m just psyched we don’t have to talk about what the wind is going to do this week. That makes me really happy. You know what else makes me happy? When you stop reading this pointless intro and go and read the article.

Feel free to drop me a follow on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]



Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

Pittsburgh Steelers (-910; -14) at Dallas Cowboys (+600)

Another week of a massive favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook as the Steelers have their second bye week of the schedule coming up in a game against the Cowboys. The ‘Boys will be using their fourth quarterback of the season, as it’s looking like Cooper Rush ($4,800) will be making the start over Ben DiNucci ($4,800). Rush is out of Central Michigan and in his senior year had a 59.8% completion rate with 3,540 passing yards, 23 touchdowns thrown and 16 interceptions. This would be his first start of his career and he has thrown a total of just three pass attempts in his career. Shout-out to Ryan Switzer for catching the only completion of Rush’s career.

As you’d imagine, this should be an easy one for the Steelers, who are a league-best 6-1 against the spread, covering by an average margin of +6.9 points. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are a league-worst 0-8 ATS, failing to cover by -10.1 points. Boasting one of the best overall defenses in the league, I’m having a really hard time seeing how the Cowboys are going to move the ball downfield in this game. Not only is the Steelers’ DST ($4,900) a great play (although very expensive) but I’m still perfectly fine with taking the Steelers -14 in this spot on DraftKings Sportsbook against a team that is averaging 7.3 points per game post Dak Prescott.

Other notable favorites: Kansas City Chiefs (-480; -10) vs. Carolina Panthers (+390), Houston Texans (-315; -6.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+250)


Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Seattle Seahawks (27.5 points; -3) at Buffalo Bills (26.5 points) 54.5 points

First and foremost, I think the -3 line for the Seahawks is a total steal. The Seahawks are one of the better teams against the spread in the league at 5-2 and covering by an average of 2.4 points. Meanwhile, the Bills since last season as home underdogs are 1-3 ATS. So that’s a fine play on DraftKings Sportsbook you can make on a Sunday morning (or now).

Both of these teams are projected for over 25 points, a total that has been easily obtainable for the Seahawks, who average 34.3 per game. The Bills are averaging 24.8 on the season but only 19.7 over their last three games. I’m having a hard time seeing where the Bills will be able to stop this Seahawks offense. Sure, CB Tre’Davious White will likely shadow DK Metcalf ($7,800) but then that leaves Tyler Lockett ($6,800) to go against CB Taron Johnson. In coverage Johnson has been targeted against 48 times, allowing 39 receptions for 428 yards. The Bills’ run defense is nothing special either and while the Seahawks don’t run the ball much, it’s simply another avenue the Seahawks can target. I have no doubt these teams can hit the over it this game but I especially like taking the over on the Seahawks’ team total as well.


DVP Matchups

Worst QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, 15.8, 2nd
Tennessee Titans, Chicago Bears, 15.9, 3rd
Kansas City Chiefs, Carolina Panthers, 17.2, 6th

Best QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks, 29.1, 32nd
Denver Broncos, Atlanta Falcons, 28.8, 31st
Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, 25.1, 30th

Worst RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Dallas Cowboys, Pittsburgh Steelers, 18.4, 1st
Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, 18.5, 2nd
New York Giants, Washington Football Team, 19.7 4th

Best RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, 33.1, 31st
Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, 32, 30th
Kansas City Chiefs, Carolina Panthers, 31.2, 29th

Worst WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

New York Giants, Washington Football Team, 25.7, 1st
Tennessee Titans, Chicago Bears, 28.8, 3rd
Carolina Panthers, Kansas City Chiefs, 29.6, 4th

Best WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Buffalo Bills, Seattle Seahawks, 61.2, 32nd
Chicago Bears, Tennessee Titans, 48.2, 31st
Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, 48.1, 30th

Worst TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, 6.7, 1st
Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins, 7.4, 2nd
Dallas Cowboys, Pittsburgh Steelers, 8.4, 4th

Best TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Denver Broncos, Atlanta Falcons, 18.8 32nd
Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, 16.7, 16.7
Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, 16.6 27th


Target Report

Last Week’s Target Leaders

Week 17 Playoff Implications

Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Dalls Cowboys New York Giants DAL -3 45 Winner goes to playoffs if PHI beats WAS
Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers CLE -9 42 CLE W needed
Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills BUF -3.5 43 MIA W needed
Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals BAL -12.5 44 BAL W needed
Arizona Cardinals LA Rams ARI -3.5 40.5 Winner goes to playoffs
Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts IND -14 49.5 IND W needed
Tennesse Titans Houston Texans TEN -7.5 56 TEN W to clinch AFC South
Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears GB -5.5 51 GB W locks No.1 Seed & Bye
New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers NO -6.5 47.5 NO shot at No.1 Seed
Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers SEA -6.5 46 SEA shot at No.1 Seed

DraftKings Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. Miami Dolphins, $7,800 — I’m really excited about using Murray this week. Looking at some early ownership projections, he’s looking to be quite low this week as everyone flocks toward Wilson, Allen and Deshaun Watson ($7,100). All three of those options are fine plays but I’ll always have my eyes on one of the lower owned options, especially if he’s someone as mobile as Murray. The Cardinals have an implied team total of 26.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook, which is one of the higher totals on the slate and yet the ownership won’t be here on Murray. He’s thrown for over 300+ yards in two of his last three games and continues to be a force with his legs, averaging 62.4 per game. We saw Cam Newton run for 75 yards in his Patriots debut against this team in Week 1 and we all know Murray isn’t shy to take the ball in the end zone, accounting for 34.1% of the team rushes in that scenario. Murray has many paths to a big scoring week.


Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals vs. Miami Dolphins, $8,200 — While the ownership for Hopkins is not going to be low like it is for Murray, Hopkins is, as always, the receiver to pair with. He owns a 31.1% overall target share in this offense, nearly double that of Larry Fitzgerald ($3,800) at 15.7%, who is second. Hopkins is also tops in red zone targets with 28%, edging out Chase Edmonds ($6,800) at 24%. His individual matchup is the cherry on top, as he’ll be drawing coverage against CB Byron Jones. In coverage, Jones has been targeted against 23 times allowing 13 receptions and 125 yards when he’s played this season. Not much too think about here.


Top Running Back To Consider

Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions, $8,200 — People will be all over Cook because of his insane performance last week against the Packers. I hate chasing games like that because getting a repeat is nearly impossible. With that said, the Lions continue to be one of the worst run defenses in the league and could be without Matthew Stafford ($6,600) as he deals with a bout of COVID-19. The Lions have allowed four weeks of opposing backs going over 100 yards, including a big game against the Colts last week, who logged 206 scrimmage yards. Cook looked fully healthy last week and should easily build on his massive 51.6 DKFP performance. Be prepared for the ownership in tournaments but in cash games, he’s a lock.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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