The rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the value of each driver.
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1. Justin Allgaier ($10,900) - Last year, Allgaier had to win the Phoenix playoff race, and he did. He was a very chalky play based on his Phoenix expertise. In the spring race, he was chalk again and was on his way to a win, but the team chose to forfeit the lead and pit on lap 137. He was never able to recover from this egregious pit road decision.
2. Harrison Burton ($9,900) - All of the JGR cars could have won at Phoenix. Busch fell off late and Jones got the win, but Burton finished 2nd. Without a doubt, Burton is the hottest driver in the Xfinity series with wins in the last two races at Texas and Martinsville.
3. Austin Cindric ($10,600) - In clean air, he looked good at Phoenix. In traffic, Cindric struggled. Phoenix seems like a career ago for Cindric. He’s grown by leaps and bounds, but from a track specific point-of-view, it’s difficult to imagine him winning without some sort of luck.
4. Chase Briscoe ($11,200) - According to Briscoe, this is one of his worst tracks. He needed to run well at Phoenix last fall in order to make the championship, and he couldn’t get it done. In the spring race, he was never in contention. Briscoe and his team have been lights out at the intermediate tracks, but the short, flat tracks have been a glaring weakness.
5. Brandon Jones ($9,300) - If Allgaier doesn’t pit near the end of stage 3, the spring race is a completely different race. Jones was good, but he restarted in the perfect spot to take advantage of Kyle Busch’s poor long run speed. To Jones’ credit, he did take advantage and won the race.
6. Ross Chastain ($10,300) - Here’s a shocker - Ross Chastain wrecked in both the Cup and Xfinity races at Phoenix in the spring. Throughout the course of the season, Chastain has done a tremendous job of learning to dial down his aggression when it is unnecessary.
7. Noah Gragson ($9,700) - He led the third most laps, but he was barely a top five driver. Gragson jumped to the lead via fast pit stops and great restarts. Passing the leader in stock car racing is challenging, and Phoenix is no different. Gragson’s pit road good fortune padded his stats some, but in the end, he finished 7th.
8. Daniel Hemric ($9,500) - Phoenix was one of the many wrecks for Hemric this season. As predicted, not only has Hemric’s performance eliminated his chance of a Cup ride, but he lost his Xfinity ride to Josh Berry and Sam Mayer. This might be the last race of his car in decent equipment, so expect him to race like it’s his last.
9. JJ Yeley ($7,900) - This week, Yeley jumps from the Rick Ware car to the #61 Hattori car. First and foremost, this car does not park. Secondly, this is JJ Yeley’s hometrack and he’s sponsored up. He did start and park last year, but that was in a notorious start and park ride for RSS.
10. Justin Haley ($10,100) - During an interview at Phoenix, Haley stated that his car was the best car that he had ever had during practice. That does not mean it was a great car, just a good Kaulig car. Haley finished 5th, but in terms of average running position, he had a 9th place car.
11. Brett Moffitt ($8,600) - Short of a wreckfest, it’s hard to slot Moffitt in for a top 10 finish. He’s a good driver and his small team is doing everything that they can, but NASCAR is an uphill battle for small teams. At least Moffitt will get a warm up race on Friday night, and maybe a hangover, if things go well in the truck race.
12. Bayley Currey ($4,900) - A Mike Harmon car is going to make DFS players hold their breath one last time. These cars have burned DFS players countless times, but here we go again. Currey is a 20th place driver, if his equipment holds up. He’s starting 33rd and is priced below $5,000. This should be fun.
13. David Starr ($5,600) - Who’s in the Bobby Dotter #07 car this week? David Starrr did not run very well in the spring race at Phoenix, but he was in much weaker equipment (Jimmy Means). If he avoids trouble, he should be around a 20th place driver.
14. Colby Howard ($5,900) - In the spring race, he was chalk. A JD Motorsports car for $4,600 starting 34th is a lock. Unless that’s the first ever Xfinity race for the driver. It was, and he wrecked. This time, he’s starting a little closer to the front and is a little more expensive, but he’s a little more experienced.
15. Riley Herbst ($8,400) - Phoenix was a typical Herbst day. This is more of a skill track and his inexperience showed. He should improve in his second race, and the stable of JGR cars were the best without question in the spring race.
16. Ryan Sieg ($8,800) - In the last three Phoenix races, Sieg has finished 11th, 13th, and 10th. That’s a typical Sieg finish this season. If some of the top tier drivers wreck or make mistakes, Sieg can earn a top 10, and possibly a top five, if there is a late race restart.
17. Myatt Snider ($8,000) - As predicted last week, Jeremy Clements looked like a terrible pivot away from the Snider chalk, but it would work if Snider wrecked. Sure enough, Snider wrecked, just as he has done many times this season. His price and starting position are not attractive, but the #21 RCR car is fast.
18. Matt Mills ($4,800) - He’s starting 32nd and he’s priced under $5,000. If A. He does not wreck and B. He does not park, then he should be one of the best value plays. In the double header at the short, flat track in Richmond, Mills finished 19th and 16th.
19. Jeffrey Earnhardt ($5,400) - Over the last eight races, Earnhardt has five top 20 finishes. He hasn’t raced at Phoenix since 2014, but in his four races at Phoenix, he has two 20th place finishes.
20. Brandon Brown ($7,700) - It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Brown ends up in the optimal lineup, but it can happen. He has no business being in cash lineups, but if there are a lot of wrecks at the end, then Brown could work. We have no idea how a championship race will play out at a short track.
Set your DraftKings fantasy NASCAR lineups here: NXS $100K Grand National Season Finale [$20K to 1st] (XFIN)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.