You came here to read about some of my picks for the Week 9 NFL slate on DraftKings, right? Cool. Let’s do that instead of a dumb intro that half of you don’t read anyways.
Oh, but at least follow me on Twitter. @SBuchanan24.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. Miami Dolphins, $7,800 — I’m really excited about using Murray this week. Looking at some early ownership projections, he’s looking to be quite low this week as everyone flocks toward Russell Wilson ($7,600), Josh Allen ($7,000) and Deshaun Watson ($7,100). All three of those options are fine plays but I’ll always have my eyes on one of the lower owned options, especially if he’s someone as mobile as Murray. The Cardinals have an implied team total of 26.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook, which is one of the higher totals on the slate and yet the ownership won’t be here on Murray. He’s thrown for over 300+ yards in two of his last three games and continues to be a force with his legs, averaging 62.4 per game. We saw Cam Newton run for 75 yards in his Patriots debut against this team in Week 1 and we all know Murray isn’t shy to take the ball in the end zone, accounting for 34.1% of the team rushes in that scenario. Murray has many paths to a big scoring week.
Other Option – Russell Wilson ($7,600)
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons vs. Denver Broncos, $6,400 — Ryan continues to be a cheap play to consider despite posting solid fantasy points, especially over the past three weeks. Coming into this game, Ryan has thrown for at least 281 passing yards with five touchdowns and one interception, averaging 25 DKFP. Now he draws a very good matchup against the Broncos, who have really been struggling in their secondary. It’s a plus matchup for both Calvin Ridley ($7,000) and Julio Jones ($7,200), so naturally, this would lead me to pairing one or both with Ryan. Going against a league-average at best pass rush, Ryan is primed for another good game this week and won’t cost all that much to take.
Other Option – Kyle Allen ($5,300)
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions, $8,200 – People will be all over Cook because of his insane performance last week against the Packers. I hate chasing games like that because getting a repeat is nearly impossible. With that said, the Lions continue to be one of the worst run defenses in the league and could be without Matthew Stafford ($6,600) as he deals with a bout of COVID-19. The Lions have allowed four weeks of opposing backs going over 100 yards, including a big game against the Colts last week, who logged 206 scrimmage yards. Cook looked fully healthy last week and should easily build on his massive 51.6 DKFP performance. Be prepared for the ownership in tournaments but in cash games, he’s a lock.
Other Options – James Robinson ($7,000)
Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders, $4,900 – Last week against the Broncos, we saw Jackson retake the RB1 spot as they continue to deal with the loss of Austin Ekeler. Jackson carried the ball 17 times and received five targets, which he caught three for 53 yards. Jackson has been very effective through the air and that’s where he can really rack up his fantasy production in this game. With the Chargers only as 1-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, Jackson will face a run defense that’s allowing an average of 56 receiving yards and a 68% catch rate to opposing backs. If the Chargers are indeed regulating Joshua Kelly to the RB2 duties, as he’s been very ineffective with the ball, Jackson could be in for a big role in this contest. He’ll be especially useful when the Chargers blow a lead in the fourth with his passing work.
Other Options – David Johnson ($5,600)
DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals vs. Miami Dolphins, $8,200 – While the ownership for Hopkins is not going to be low like it is for Murray, Hopkins is, as always, the receiver to pair Murray with. He owns a 31.1% overall target share in this offense, nearly double that of Larry Fitzgerald ($3,800) at 15.7%, who is second. Hopkins is also tops in red zone targets with 28%, edging out Chase Edmonds ($6,800) at 24%. His individual matchup is the cherry on top, as he’ll be drawing coverage against CB Byron Jones. In coverage, Jones has been targeted against 23 times allowing 13 receptions and 125 yards when he’s played this season. Not much too think about here.
Other Options – Tyler Lockett ($6,800), Stefon Diggs ($7,400)
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans, $3,900 – Mooney has been carving himself out a really prominent role in the Bears’ offense as of late, drawing at least five targets in six straight games. In fact, since Week 3, which is when he’s seen at least five targets, Mooney is third on the team in target share at 15%. Mooney is also second on the team in pass attempts of at least 20+ yards with 13, although he only has two receptions in those scenarios. Nonetheless, he’s getting the shots. Against a generous Titans secondary, this is a great pay down spot for one of your receivers.
Other Options – Randall Cobb ($4,500), Jerry Jeudy ($4,700)
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers, $5,800 – We have such a massive difference in salary between Waller and Travis Kelce ($7,200), who is the most expensive TE on the slate. I don’t find it necessary to go all the way up for Kelce and think you’re getting just as good of a play with Waller at $1,400 cheaper. The Chargers are allowing an average of 53.4 receiving yards and have given up five touchdowns to the tight end position. I don’t think I need to tell you that Waller leads the Raiders in target share at 27.4% but it’s worth noting that’s nearly double that on Hunter Renfrow ($4,100), who is second at 15%. Waller is also the dominant one in red zone targets at 32.4% with Renfrow once again a distant second at 14.7%.
Other Options – Travis Kelce ($7,200)
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons, $4,600 – Overall, Fant is my favorite play at the tight end position this week. His mid-tier price in a matchup against the Falcons is the one I want to target. The Falcons have been the worst team defending opposing tight ends, allowing an average of 18.8 DKFP, 66.7 receiving yards and a league-leading eight touchdowns scored. Fant has quietly been a target monster on this team and is averaging 7.1 on the year and an 18.2% share overall, which is second on the team. Fant is the likely chalk here, but he’s in such a good matchup.
Indianapolis Colts DST vs. Baltimore Ravens, $3,300 – We have this idea in our heads that we never want to target against the Ravens or Lamar Jackson ($6,900). To be fair, for as good as Jackson is, he’s been under pressure on 39% of his dropbacks and sacked 19 times. Now he’ll face a Colts defense that has been one of the strongest in the league, especially against the run. While it feels gross to target against the Ravens, the Colts could end up being a really, solid play.
Other Option – Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,900)
Minnesota Vikings DST vs. Detroit Lions, $2,400 – If you want to go way down the list and punt the DST position, I don’t mind using the Vikings here either. As I write this Friday afternoon, we still aren’t sure who will be playing quarterback for the Lions, as Matt Stafford ($6,600) deals with COVID-19. Even when he has played, he’s taken 19 sacks and been under pressure on 31% of his dropbacks. Now, imagine those numbers and think about what it could look like if Chase Daniel ($4,000) was playing instead. At this cheap salary, it’s potentially worth the punt.
Other Option – Carolina Panthers ($2,100)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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