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NFL Week 9 Odds: Line Movement, DraftKings Sportsbook Football Betting Analysis

Matt Meiselman gives football betting analysis and insight for Week 9 of the NFL, including line movement and betting splits.

The focus of Week 9 is squarely on the potential returns of a few big names, most notably for Sunday Night Football with Michael Thomas, Antonio Brown and possibly Chris Godwin, too. Christian McCaffrey is expected back for the Panthers, but there are also plenty of key players who will be missing their games this week. As always, you can check back here for further updates on Sunday morning to see how the betting lines are reacting to the latest news.


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Sunday Line Movement Update

  • The Colts moved from +2.5 to -1 by Friday, before Ravens action shifted the line back to the Baltimore side on Saturday. The trend has swung, however, and the Colts are now 1-point favorites once again.
  • The Cardinals initially moved from -5 to -4.5 against the Dolphins earlier this week, but the spread has shot back up with Arizona now favored by 6.
  • The total trend for Sunday Night Football is detailed below, but interestingly the point spread has started to move significantly towards the Saints too. New Orleans originally opened at +5.5 and reached +4.5 on Friday, but the line is down to +3.5 now and could even be trending lower.

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Betting Splits Breakdown

One of the more notable trends that jumps out for Week 9 is just how popular a few of the road teams are. It’s no surprise that the Steelers are getting almost all of the betting action against the Cowboys, who still haven’t covered a spread this season, but the Ravens and Seahawks are actually facing quality opponents. Even against the Colts and Bills, both Baltimore and Seattle are getting about 90% of the bets and handle, and it could indicate that the home teams are undervalued in these games. Elsewhere on the board, it looks like the bets and handle numbers are split pretty evenly in some of the other notable games. The bets and handle percentages are hovering around 50 for the Saints and Buccaneers, and the same is true for the Titans and Bears.


How the Lines are Moving

Spreads

Indianapolis Colts (+2.5 to -1)

Carolina Panthers (+11.5 to +10)

Totals

Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons (47.5 to 50)

Baltimore Ravens to Indianapolis Colts (45 to 48)

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (54.5 to 50.5)

The most alarming line movement of the week is primarily coming late Friday afternoon, and it’s especially surprising given the injury reporting. T.Y. Hilton was downgraded to doubtful for the Colts on Friday, but the line movement has been skewed sharply toward their offense in spite of that. The spread and total have both moved by about three points, and it could be the result of some injury news on the Ravens’ defensive side of the ball. The Ravens also struggled to contain the Steelers’ offense in Week 8 and that could be what Colts bettors are looking at too.

One of the other counter-intuitive line shifts of Week 9 is in the Sunday night game, where the total for Bucs vs. Saints has fallen by four points. The wide receiver talent is getting an upgrade on both sides, but the total has dropped nonetheless. There is some wind in the forecast, but ultimately, this change probably comes down to overvalued offenses in a game between two of the strongest defenses in the NFL.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.