It’s Week 9 in the NFL and it’s once again time to survey each game for value player props. I’m fading a quarterback who was once an MVP candidate this year and backing two exciting young talents to dominate. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Josh Allen under 289.5 passing yards (-112)
That Josh Allen MVP talk sure has aged poorly, huh? After averaging 346 passing yards per game over his first three games of the season, his per-game average has dipped to 226.8 over the past five weeks. This total is surely inflated because of a soft matchup against this poor and banged up Seattle pass defense, but they will finally be welcoming back safety Jamal Adams this week. I expect him to make more of an impact rushing Allen as opposed to making plays in the secondary, but at any rate, he should give this unit the boost it needs. Allen entered this season without a 300-yard game and threw for 154 last week. Now I’m supposed to believe he can flirt with 300? Anything is possible, but this total should be much lower.
Chase Edmonds over 69.5 rushing yards (-112)
Do you know how many yards Chase Edmonds is averaging per carry? 6.1. Do you know how many he averaged last year? 5.1. Over his career? 4.6. The bottom line is when Chase Edmonds gets the ball, good things happen. He doesn’t need many touches to rack up yards. He’s now going to be “the guy” with Kenyan Drake out, a role he assumed last season in a win over the Giants. His numbers? 126 yards on 27 carries and three touchdowns. I don’t anticipate this being a spot where a team is afraid to elevate a pass-catching or third-down back to an early-down role; the Cardinals are big fans of Edmonds and you should be, too. With no other running backs to speak of here, the Fordham product should be fed plenty and you know he will be productive with his touches.
Le’Veon Bell over 12.5 receiving yards (-112)
Let me get this straight — someone who not too long ago was one of the league’s best pass-catching running backs, who caught three passes for 31 yards last week in his second game with his new team, only saw his receiving total rise by a single yard? This doesn’t seem fair to Bell, who ran a screen pass out for 18 yards last week on his first catch of the game in the first quarter. I expect him to receive a few more targets this week, moving to the Chiefs because of his lack of targets with the Jets. If he is thrown the ball just two times, he will get over this total. Keep betting this until it rises to a fair number.
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Drew Lock over 255.5 passing yards (-124)
Yes, I am drinking the Drew Lock Kool-Aid. Why, you may ask? Well, Lock has really had just two bad starts when you look back at his 10 career games, accounting for most of the pessimism surrounding the young signal-caller. He had a bad outing against a tough Chiefs defense last year, and another clunker against a good Pats defense this year. Otherwise, he’s completed a high percentage of his passes and had a tremendous TD-to-interception ratio. Now, I’m going to be hesitant in believing in Lock in big games until he shows me he can succeed when he’s facing a tough pass rush or elite defensive backs, but this is not one of those spots. The Falcons allow the second-most passing yards per game at 311.4, and the third-highest completion percentage at 70.3%. This is an A+ matchup, and a low number because of Lock’s career average of just 194.7 yards per game. He should be able to complete a high number of passes against this secondary and judging by the number of yards they allow per game, I think he could post a career-high in yards here. He’s gone eight straight starts without a 300-yard game since his second career start, that streak won’t last forever.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.