We’re used to seeing the Patriots as 10-point favorites against the Jets over the years, but this time is different. The 2-5 Patriots are a much different team, finally relinquishing their grasp on the AFC East. While the Bills and Dolphins are taking advantage, the Jets are going in the opposite direction. New England is in desperate need of a bounce-back coming off four straight losses, and the Jets have been the ultimate get-right spot all season.
Let’s break down Pats-Jets from an MNF DraftKings Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineup here: NFL $2.25M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (NE vs NYJ)
New England Patriots
Cam Newton ($13,200) has close to nothing to work with when it comes to his weapons in the passing game, but his rushing floor still keeps him in consideration. After hitting rock bottom against the 49ers, Newton’s 9-54-1 line helped him to nearly 20 DKFP last week against the Bills — who got the best of Russell Wilson in Week 9. Cam’s stock is pretty low right now, which is why I’m a little surprised by his highest Showdown price of the season by a mile, even in this matchup. But the Jets heal all wounds, so a monster game is certainly in the cards for Cam.
Julian Edelman (knee) and N’Keal Harry (concussion) remain out, which has led to Jakobi Meyers ($9,000) arguably becoming the most trustworthy WR in the Patriots’ passing game. Meyers has secured 10-of-16 targets for 118 yards over the past two games, scoring over 10 DKFP in each. The cushy matchup against the Jets is a good spot to continue some of that momentum.
Damiere Byrd ($6,800) has some potential for a big play, but the volume is pretty questionable at this price. He caught 6-of-9 targets for 72 yards against the Seahawks with Newton at QB in Week 2, but he’s been targeted just 10 total times in Cam’s past three starts combined. While a much riskier play, I’d rather punt on someone like Isaiah Zuber ($400) and hope for a breakout. The savings should go a long way on this slate, and Byrd could wind up giving you a goose egg at a pretty high price.
The TE position is essentially non-existent for the Patriots since Rob Gronkowski departed. With the position even more injured than usual, maybe there’s some value to Ryan Izzo ($1,400) — he is questionable with a hamstring injury. But if he plays, Izzo’s produced comparable numbers to Byrd over the past three games and is worth considering.
The Patriots are most likely going to try and pound the rock in this game since that should be their biggest advantage. Damien Harris ($10,200), who we expect to play through an ankle injury, was crucial in keeping the Pats in the game with a chance to win against the Bills. Harris finished with a 16-102-1 line for 19.2 DKFP in Buffalo and has about as safe a floor as anyone in this game thanks to his projected touches.
With the lack of targets in the passing game, Newton becomes an even more intriguing play with his rushing ability, but you could make the argument for playing multiple New England RBs on this slate. James White ($6,400) and Rex Burkhead ($4,600) have both had relatively quiet seasons, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see either get heavily involved in this game.
While insanely expensive, Patriots D/ST ($7,400) has some appeal for obvious reasons. We saw Buccaneers D/ST in a similar spot last week, though, and it didn’t work out.
New York Jets
Joe Flacco ($9,400) has led the Jets to a grand total of 10 points in his two starts this season, so the offense should be pretty bare for the Jets. Flacco is a tough play to stomach, but on a Showdown slate, we at least have to consider him. The New England defense is not the same, and Flacco will be widely overlooked.
The one play that seems to carry upside regardless of the QB situation for the Jets is Jamison Crowder ($11,200). Crowder’s only played in four games, but he’s seen at least 10 targets in each and averages over 22 DKFP. More importantly, two of those games were Flacco starts and Crowder was still able to score nearly 20 DKFP per game given all the volume. There aren’t many other places for the Jets to look when trailing. While we expect Crowder to be active, make sure he suits up and plays through a questionable tag due to a groin injury.
Braxton Berrios ($5,400) and Denzel Mims ($5,000) are at least considerations, but their salaries are on the rise due to recent production. These were the two starting WRs last week and now shift back into the backup roles. I’d pass on them both, but you could include one in a contrarian Flacco stack. Mims does have big-play ability and was considered a first-round talent by many. Berrios would be the play if Crowder is surprisingly ruled out. Breshad Perriman ($4,200) is the most intriguing play of the bunch, coming back into his starting role, but sitting as the cheapest of the four WRs. Perriman’s production this season is nothing exciting, but the value is there.
The Jets are finally starting to explore the upside of La’Mical Perine ($5,800), averaging double-digit touches over the past three games. He hasn’t been very impressive with them, outside of a 13.6 DKFP game against Buffalo, but he’s worth considering given the price. Frank Gore ($2,800) takes a big hit in salary with the move at RB, but as always, Gore is looming for touches. He’s still carried the ball 10-plus times in each of the past three games, averaging over 45 rushing yards, so don’t completely write him off with the Patriots ranking 22nd in DKFP allowed to RB.
This is going to be an ugly game. I think the clear path to the win for the Patriots is going to the run, so I’d prefer to look at Damien Harris ($15,300 CP) in the captain spot. I think going to the Jets side will be looked at as contrarian, but maybe considering Patriots D/ST ($11,100 CP) is another way to be different, and target a good matchup.
Final Score: Patriots 23, Jets 13
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