This should wind up being a pretty ugly game, as the 2-5 Patriots are set as 10-point favorites when they visit the 0-8 Jets. New England has taken a massive step back this season and enters the game at 3-4 ATS.
Meanwhile, the Jets are just 1-7 ATS, and losing games by an average of 18 points per game. That said, home underdogs in divisional games are an insane 11-1 ATS this season. Can you stomach backing that trend and betting the Jets?
I think you can use the Patriots moneyline as a safe parlay piece if you like a parlay, but otherwise, I won’t be taking a side on the spread or total. A couple of player props do stand out, along with a way to fade Joe Flacco and the Jets’ offense.
Here’s what jumps out on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Harris was in line to become the featured RB in this offense from training camp but then started the season on IR. He started his season with a 100-yard game against the Chiefs and was clearly featured last week against the Bills, carrying 16 times for 102 yards and a touchdown. Harris has exceeded this rushing total in three of his four games and the game script should set up for a healthy workload. The Jets surprisingly rank just above average in rush defense, allowing 116 yards per game on the ground. While Harris will split snaps three ways with Rex Burkhead and James White, his purpose is clear. When he’s on the field, he’s running it — carrying the ball on 80% of his snaps. Harris also out-carried the White/Burkhead duo 16-8 last week in Buffalo.
Crowder’s only played in four games this season but has pretty much been the only difference-maker at the skill positions for the Jets. Assuming he’s able to play through a groin injury, which reports indicate he will, Crowder should resume his role as the centerpiece of this offense. He’s averaging 95.8 receiving yards per game and has been targeted at least 10 times in each game. And these numbers aren’t all that skewed to playing with Sam Darnold — two of Crowder’s games have been Flacco starts. He finished those games with eight receptions for 116 yards against the Cardinals and then seven receptions for 48 yards against the Dolphins. I also like the over on 4.5 receptions for Crowder, who has at least seven in each game, but with -200 juice on that, I’ll look to an equally safe play on his yardage.
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The Jets are halfway through their season and are averaging 11.75 points per game. They’ve exceeded 16 points just twice in those eight games and the scoring drought has only gotten worse as the season progresses. The Jets have a grand total of 29 points in their past four games combined, failing to score more than 10 points in a game since Oct. 1. In Flacco’s two starts, the Jets have scored a combined 10 points, including a shutout at the hands of the Dolphins. The Patriots haven’t been anything special on defense, allowing 18 or more points in every game since holding Miami to 11 points in Week 1. But this is more about New York’s inability to score and the Patriots just giving enough resistance in a game they’ll be looking to snap a three-game losing streak.
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