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NFL Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for Week 14

Steve Buchanan breaks down the Week 14 DraftKings NFL slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Hi everyone. This is the intro to my NFL Cheat Sheet for Week 14. Hooray.

Feel free to drop me a follow on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

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Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

New York Jets (+550) at Seattle Seahawks (-715; -13.5)

No surprise to see the winless Jets once again big underdogs in Week 14, as the quest for win numero uno goes through Seattle. As home favorites, the Seahawks are 5-1 overall and 4-2 ATS and are one of the better teams in this situation in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Jets are obviously 0-for-whatever in every situation and aren’t even a good cover team, going 1-4 ATS as road underdogs.

The elephant in the room is the Seahawks coming off a shocking loss against the Giants last week. The Giants did an excellent job of getting pressure on Russell Wilson ($7,900), doing so on 37% of his drop backs. The Jets aren’t the best or worst at this, but their secondary is far worse than the Giants. With that in mind, the Seahawks should be able to move the ball downfield with ease and thus, this massive spread, even after the loss, is very much in play. Over the last five years, coming off a loss, the Seahawks are 19-3-3 ATS, covering by an average margin of +4.1 points. Only the Vikings are better in this spot at 25-9. It’s a new week, erase the woes and loss of bets on that game (I’m doing therapy on myself right now, roll with me) and focus on a very, very favorable Week 14 matchup.

Other notable favorites: Green Bay Packers (-420; -7.5) vs. Detroit Lions (+345), Kansas City Chiefs (-335; -7.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (+275)

Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Green Bay Packers (-7.5; 31.5 points ) vs. Detroit Lions (23.5 points)

Two teams that have been excellent at hitting the over will battle in Week 14, as the Packers and Lions have a projected total of 55, according to the DKSB. This total hasn’t budged much after opening at 54.5 despite these teams being a combined 15-9 at hitting the over this season. The Lions are certainly a team you can score against, as the 29.8 points allowed per game is the second-highest in the league, trailing only the Cowboys at 32.8. When these teams met in Week 2, Aaron Rodgers ($7,500) only threw for 240 yards and two touchdowns, but the Packers scored 42 points, thanks to a monster game from Aaron Jones ($7,600), who totalled 236 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns.

These are also two of the worst run defenses in the league. As I mentioned, Jones went completely off the rails in Week 2. This would also be an excellent return spot for D’Andre Swift ($6,500), who has been sidelined since Week 10, to come back and be in a favorable matchup. The Lions aren’t as apt to run the ball as the Packers are (62.2% passing plays for Lions, 56.6% for Packers), but both backs should have an immense amount of success on the ground. I think this game has a legitimate chance to shootout and if you’re looking for a game to target from a fantasy perspective, this would certainly be high on the list.

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DVP Matchups

Worst QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Las Vegas Raiders, Indianapolis Colts, 17.5, T-4th
Arizona Cardinals, New York Giants, 17.5, T-4th
Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, 17.7, 6th

Best QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Los Angeles Chargers, Atlanta Falcons, 26.6, 32nd
New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks, 25.6, 31st
Seattle Seahawks, New York Jets, 24.7, 30th

Worst RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, 16.2, 1st
San Francisco 49ers, Washington Football Team, 18.7, 3rd
Los Angeles Chargers, Atlanta Falcons, 19.9, 5th

Best RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Chicago Bears, Houston Texans, 33.4, 32nd
Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, 32.9, 31st
Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, 29.7, 30th

Worst WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

San Francisco 49ers, Washington Football Team, 32.4, 2nd
Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, 32.7, 3rd
Atlanta Falcons, Los Angeles Chargers, 33.2, 4th

Best WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks, 50.3 32nd
Los Angeles Chargers, Atlanta Falcons, 45.1, 31st
Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, 43.9, 30th

Worst TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Washington Football Team, San Francisco 49ers, 8.0, 1st
Las Vegas Raiders, Indianapolis Colts, 8.6, T-2nd
Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, 9.3, 5th

Best TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Seattle Seahawks, New York Jets, 17.5 32nd
Dallas Cowboys, Cincinnati Bengals, 16.5, 31st
Houston Texans, Chicago Bears, 16.3, T-29th

Target Report

Last Week’s Target Leaders

Week 17 Playoff Implications

Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Dalls Cowboys New York Giants DAL -3 45 Winner goes to playoffs if PHI beats WAS
Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers CLE -9 42 CLE W needed
Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills BUF -3.5 43 MIA W needed
Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals BAL -12.5 44 BAL W needed
Arizona Cardinals LA Rams ARI -3.5 40.5 Winner goes to playoffs
Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts IND -14 49.5 IND W needed
Tennesse Titans Houston Texans TEN -7.5 56 TEN W to clinch AFC South
Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears GB -5.5 51 GB W locks No.1 Seed & Bye
New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers NO -6.5 47.5 NO shot at No.1 Seed
Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers SEA -6.5 46 SEA shot at No.1 Seed

DraftKings Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions, $7,500 — The fact that Rodgers is “only” the fourth-most expensive quarterback on this slate is just ridiculous. From a fantasy perspective, he’s arguably been the most consistent QB and he enters this game averaging 25.3 DKFP and 283 passing yards per game with a 69% completion percentage. The Lions secondary is one you can completely pick apart and they aren’t going to offer much on the pass rush, giving Rodgers a clean pocket to work with. In that situation, Rodgers has the third-best adjusted completion percentage at 83.6% with 31 of his 36 touchdown passes and 8.6 yards per pass attempt. With the Packers projected for over 30 points, you can’t ignore Rodgers.

Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions, $9,300 — Pairing these two together is tough, don’t get me wrong. Starting your lineup with them leaves you with an average of just $4,742 for the remaining spots. However, we’re already seeing some value open up with Russell Gage ($4,500) and Breshad Perriman ($3,900) with the news that Julio Jones (hamstring) and Denzel Mims (personal) will be out this week.

As for Adams, I don’t think I have to tell you about the dominating numbers he has in this offense. He accounts for 28% of the overall targets and 37.3% of the red zone targets. No one even sniffs those type of numbers amongst the other Packers receivers (yes, they do have others). When we talk about individual matchups, Adams should draw Lions CB Amani Oruwariye. In coverage, Oruwariye has been targeted against 59 times allowing 31 receptions (52.5% catch rate) for an average of 16.5 YPR. Going against the wide receiver with the sixth-most yards after catch in the league with 407, this is a fantastic spot for Adams.

Top Running Back To Consider

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans, $6,500 — With the idea that you’ll be using Rodgers/Adams, I’m not going to pretend you can also jam in someone like Dalvin Cook ($9,400) or Derrick Henry ($8,700). If you read an article where they say that or it has a super long intro, just close it. They’re cowards.

Anyways, what you CAN do is use an underpriced Montgomery in ANOTHER really good matchup. Montgomery has been feasting on these below average run defenses the past few weeks and he gets another one here. Over the past two weeks, Montgomery has 175 rushing yards on 28 carries (6.2 YPC) while adding 79 yards on nine catches and three total touchdowns. Now he faces a Texans team that’s allowing an average of 185 scrimmage yards per game to opposing backfields? C’mon, this is a no-brainer. Even with the mobile Mitch Trubisky ($5,600) under center, Montgomery is averaging a solid 36.1% of overall team touches.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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