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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 14

Steve Buchanan gives his top studs and values at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate, which locks at 1:00 p.m. ET.

This is an article about who you should target for your DraftKings lineup for the Week 14 NFL slate on Sunday, as if the title didn’t state that already. So read it and then follow me on Twitter @SBuchanan24. Or don’t. This is America.

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Quarterback

Stud

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, $7,500 — The fact that Rodgers is “only” the fourth-most expensive quarterback on this slate is just ridiculous. From a fantasy perspective, he’s arguably been the most consistent QB and he enters this game averaging 25.3 DKFP and 283 passing yards per game with a 69% completion percentage. The Lions’ secondary is one you can completely pick apart and they aren’t going to offer much on the pass rush, giving Rodgers a clean pocket to work with. In that situation, Rodgers has the third-best adjusted completion percentage at 83.6% with 31 of his 36 touchdown passes and 8.6 yards per pass attempt. With the Packers projected for over 30 points, you can’t ignore Rodgers.

Other Option – Patrick Mahomes ($8,100)

Value

Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts at Las Vegas Raiders, $5,900 — No one ever wants to play Rivers but quite frankly, he’s been great for a low-priced option. He comes into this game averaging 16.8 DKFP overall and 20.1 over his last three games. Now he’ll face a Raiders secondary you can throw against and a pass rush that doesn’t really exist. When Rivers is working with a clean pocket, he has a 79.8% adjusted completion percentage, 14 of his 18 touchdowns thrown and 7.8 YPA. These numbers don’t blow you away but for a sub-$6K quarterback, that’s more than enough. This game could be a sneaky shootout as well and I think if you’re looking to pay down, Rivers is a great option.

Other Option – Mitchell Trubisky ($5,600)


Running Back

Stud

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans, $6,500 – This is a bit cheap for the “Stud” section but I cannot pass up writing about another stellar spot for the Bears’ running back. Montgomery has been feasting on these below average run defenses the past few weeks and he gets another one here. Over the past two weeks, Montgomery has 175 rushing yards on 28 carries (6.2 YPC) while adding 79 yards on nine catches and three total touchdowns. Now he faces a Texans team that’s allowing an average of 185 scrimmage yards per game to opposing backfields? C’mon, this is a no-brainer. Even with the mobile Mitchell Trubisky ($5,600) under center, Montgomery is averaging a solid 36.1% of overall team touches.

Other Options – Derrick Henry ($8,700), Aaron Jones ($7,600)

Value

J.D McKissic, Washington Football Team at San Francisco 49ers, $4,900 – With Antonio Gibson ($6,700) looking doubtful for Sunday, it’ll likely be McKissic handling the bulk of the work in the backfield. McKissic is literally getting Alvin Kamara type targets, seeing double-digits three times this season. We haven’t seen a full game without Gibson on the field but with his early departure last week, McKissic logged 28.8% of the overall team touches, his fifth time over 20% this season. With the Football Team as underdogs on DraftKings Sportsbook (which is totally a steal, so bet them as dogs), McKissic racking up the PPR points would be ideal, especially at his low salary.

Other Options – Jonathan Taylor ($5,800), Melvin Gordon ($5,200)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, $9,300 — Making a lineup with Adams and Rodgers is certainly a challenge. However, we’re already seeing some value open up at receiver with Russell Gage ($4,500) and Breshad Perriman ($3,900) with the news that Julio Jones (hamstring) and Denzel Mims (personal) will be out this week.

As for Adams, I don’t think I have to tell you about the dominating numbers he has in this offense. He accounts for 28% of the overall targets and 37.3% of the red zone targets. No one even sniffs those type of numbers among the other Packers receivers (yes, they do have others). When we talk about individual matchups, Adams should draw Lions CB Amani Oruwariye. In coverage, Oruwariye has been targeted against 59 times, allowing 31 receptions (52.5% catch rate) for an average of 16.5 YPR. Going against the wide receiver with the sixth-most yards after catch in the league with 407, this is a fantastic spot for Adams.

Other Options – Justin Jefferson ($7,400), Keenan Allen ($7,700)

Value

Collin Johnson, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans, $3,600 – For whatever reason, Mike Glennon ($5,100) really likes Johnson. In seven games before Glennon, Johnson drew 13 targets. With Glennon in two games, Johnson has 14. Even with DJ Chark Jr. ($5,300) back last week, Johnson was still very much a part of this offense. Now he’ll tangle with a very poor Titans secondary in Week 14. Glennon has not been afraid to throw the ball in these games and has averaged 38 pass attempts per game. With Johnson playing on a healthy dose of snaps and drawing an average of 19.4% of the targets with Glennon, Johnson could be a much needed cheap receiver we can use in this spot.

Other Options – Keke Coutee ($5,000), Russell Gage ($4,500)


Tight End

Stud

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs $4,500 – If I had my way, I wouldn’t put any tight ends on my roster. Problem is, every time I try to submit without one, I’m not allowed. So whatever, we’ll play the game and roster someone, I guess.

Gesicki had a really good game last week against the Bengals and I hope that carries over in Week 14 against the Chiefs. The ideal and likely situation is the Dolphins are playing catch up against the Chiefs, forcing them to throw early and often. Against opposing tight ends, the Chiefs allow an average of 13.3 DKFP, 55.8 receiving yards per game and five touchdowns scored. Gesicki has been a bit hard to trust in the second-half of the season but he does have at least five targets in four straight games and a touchdown in two of them.

Other Options – Travis Kelce ($7,400)

Value

Jordan Reed, San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Football Team $3,500 – As mentioned, I like Washington in this game, which could mean more throwing for the Niners. The Football Team’s secondary is very, very tough but they’ve been soft against opposing tight ends, allowing an average of 13.2 DKFP and 50.8 receiving yards along with six touchdowns scored. Reed, when healthy, has been a great cheap option to use at this tough position. He’s a red zone threat as well, making this a worthy flier.

Other Options – James O’Shaughnessy ($2,500)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles $3,800 – Believe me, I’m really excited to see Jalen Hurts ($5,100) get his first start and want to see him do well. The problem is, that paper thin offensive line in front of him is not going to make things easy. Carson Wentz was under pressure on 37% of his dropbacks, leading to 48 sacks. Hurts is certainly someone who can escape some of that pressure but it’s still a good matchup for the Saints’ DST, if you choose to pay up.

Other Option – Chicago Bears ($3,000)

Value

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons, $2,600 – Not many will be on the Chargers’ DST this week after they posted -3.0 DKFP last week in the blowout loss to the Patriots. That’s fine with me, as they’ll have an amazing spot to bounce back. Matt Ryan has been under pressure on 35% of his dropbacks and he’s been sacked 31 times. The eyeball test says he’s simply not reading pressure well either, as some of these seemed completely avoidable. If you’re looking to pay down, take the Chargers in a good “get right” spot.

Other Option – New York Jets ($2,100)

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