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NFL Week 14 Odds: Line Movement, DraftKings Sportsbook Football Betting Analysis

Matt Meiselman gives football betting analysis and insight for Week 14 of the NFL, including line movement and betting splits.

The NFL Playoff Picture has had some major changes since last week, particularly in the NFC East and NFC West due to the New York Giants’ shocking upset win over the Seattle Seahawks. The Giants are now the NFC East front-runners while the Los Angeles Rams are ahead in the NFC West, but the Washington Football Team has snuck into the playoff picture after ending the Pittsburgh Steelers’ unbeaten streak to start the season. Week 14 doesn’t have quite as many reactions to Week 13 as Week 13 did to Week 12, but there are still plenty of strong betting sentiments to analyze.


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Sunday Line Movement Update

  • With Brandin Cooks now ruled out, the Bears have moved to PK against the Texans, down from +2 earlier in the week.
  • The Seahawks were -13.5 against the Jets as of Friday, but that line has moved all the way up to 16, even with more of the bets actually on the Jets this week.
  • With Julio Jones ruled out, the Chargers are now the favorites for this week’s game against the Falcons.

Betting Splits Breakdown

DraftKings Sportsbook bettors are backing road favorites yet again, with some of the NFL’s best teams facing weaker competition on the road this week. The two notable exceptions — who are only at a little above 50 percent of the betting split — are the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens. Both of those teams have struggled in recent weeks, and they’re facing underdogs who have both become popular picks as well. The Cleveland Browns have done well for DraftKings Sportsbook bettors, winning four straight games, while the Jacksonville Jaguars continue to lose outright every week but have actually covered the spread in four of their past five games.


How the Lines are Moving

Spreads

Buffalo Bills (+1.5 to -1.5)

The line movement for Sunday night’s Steelers-Bills game is by far the most substantial of the week, as the Bills actually got to nearly 3-point favorites despite opening as underdogs. The line has since come back down a bit to -1.5, but this still represents a three-point swing. It was predictable that DraftKings Sportsbook bettors would sour on the Steelers after their huge letdown against the Football Team on Monday night, but the extent of this correction is pretty surprising.

Totals

Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals (45.5 to 43)

There hasn’t been much line movement this week as far as totals go, but the one notable spot where the number has significantly changed is in Cincinnati. The Cowboys actually played semi-decent offense on Tuesday against the Ravens, but the Bengals have been involved in some incredibly slow-paced and low-scoring games since Joe Burrow got injured. A total of 70% of the bets are actually on the over here, but only 61% of the handle is on the over, so the size of the under wagers seems to be moderately higher.

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.