Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here most weeks too, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.
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Jalen Hurts ($5,900) – Jalen Reagor ($4,400) – DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900)
Both the Eagles and Cardinals play at fast paces and rank inside the top-10 in the league in plays per game, so this matchup should give us a great environment for lots of fantasy points. While Kyler Murray ($7,000) is always an option for GPP lineups, Jalen Hurts is $1,100 cheaper this week and likely makes for the better price-per-dollar target. Hurts’ debut saw him run the ball 18 times for 106 yards while leading the Philly offense to 24 points against one of the best defenses in the league. Arizona doesn’t possess New Orleans’ talent up front and has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs this year. Hurts only took one red zone rush last week but you should see that number rise as he goes along, and he’ll have a great shot of finding the end zone with his legs against a softer front here.
The matchup is also good for rookie WR Jalen Reagor, who led the Eagles in targets and receiving yards last week. That Reagor couldn’t break a big play against the Saints isn’t overly shocking, but the fact he was the only Eagles WR to go for over 40 yards is a good sign of the potential. Hurts’ mobility should give him more opportunities at downfield passes going forward and Arizona’s secondary has been a good team to target WRs against. The Cardinals have given up the 13th most fantasy points to opposing WRs this year and with Reagor’s cheap price, pairing him with the mobile Hurts gives you a great, cost-effective stack which can truly pay off with one big play.
The cost-savings on Hurts-Reagor will also help you pay up for a stud like DeAndre Hopkins, who bounced back from a couple of slow games to post 9-136 against a supposedly tough Giants secondary in Week 14. Hopkins is still getting targeted at an enormous rate (24 targets the last two games) and gets a better matchup here against an Eagles secondary who has been terrible of late at shutting down the opposing team’s WR1. Over the past three games, the Eagles have allowed an average of 127 yards and 9.25 receptions to opposing WR1s and top CB Darius Slay now sits with a 76% completion rate against him this year, the 15th worst mark of any starting CB. If you really want to attack this game, Kenyan Drake ($5,500) is also an option as he’s averaged 20 touches over the last three games and is averaging five red zone touches over his last five games.
Just Missed: Taysom Hill ($6,000) – Jared Cook ($3,400) – Tyreek Hill ($8,800)
Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings ($5,500)
Don’t look now, but Mitch Trubisky is starting to string together some good games. He enters here having completed 74% of his passes over the last two games while throwing for 4 TDs vs. 0 INTs. Trubisky was on his way to a potentially slate-breaking fantasy performance last week but was held back by an anemic Houston offense who allowed the Bears to run out the clock in the second half. That same issue shouldn’t arise against the Vikings, who rank 7th in points scored this year but also allow the ninth-most points per game on defense.
Minnesota’s issues on defense extend to fantasy too as they’ve allowed the fifth-most passing TDs against this season and rank just 25th in sacks per game this year. Trubisky has done well against softer defenses of late and yet has not seen his DraftKings price climb at all here. The matchup for his wide receivers is a great one and Minnesota will also likely be without their best defender in Eric Kendricks here which could open up Cole Kmet (3,000) and David Montgomery ($7,000) more too. The upside here looks terrific considering the price we’re being offered and the fact that the Bears’ offense (91 points score the last three games) has looked quite good of late.
Just Missed: Taysom Hill ($6,000-if he starts)
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans ($7,200)
With 22.5 DKFP and 33.5 DKFP efforts over his last two games, you know I had to give Taylor his third straight spotlight. The rookie has been taking advantage of great matchups and has now taken 16 and 22 touches now over his last two games. While two great games and an increasing workload would normally assure higher ownership in big-field GPPs this week, Taylor’s Week 15 DraftKings price has risen $1,400 over last week and should help keep ownership low. There are concerns here, like the fact Nyheim Hines ($5,400) still played on 36% of the snaps last week, but the matchup says that Taylor’s upside remains fully intact. Houston has allowed 5.0 YPC against this year (second worst in the league) and allowed Taylor himself to rack up 149 yards and a 7.0 YPC average two weeks ago. Over Houston’s last eight games, the lead RB for their opponent has found the end zone at least once and with Taylor now leading the Colts in snaps played at RB over his last three starts, the price here shouldn’t scare us off.
Jeff Wilson Jr., San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys ($5,100-if no Mostert)
Wilson has elevated himself to the number two spot on the 49ers’ depth chart and has essentially split snaps with starter Raheem Mostert ($5,800) the last two games. Mostert is highly questionable to even play this week (he missed practice Wednesday) and if he does miss, Wilson is going to step into a very nice fantasy matchup against the Cowboys. Dallas sports the worst YPC mark against in the league this season at 5.1 YPC and has given up the second-most overall rushing yards to the RB position. While we may see the carcasses of Tevin Coleman ($4,000) or Jerick McKinnon ($4,000) take the field a bit, Wilson has been the guy for HC Kyle Shanahan lately, especially in the pass game where he’s seen eight targets over the last two weeks. He’d also make for a nice leverage play in big GPPs against Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300) lineups, who is sure to be a popular target this week.
Just Missed: LeSean McCoy ($4,000)
Marvin Jones Jr., Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans ($5,700)
Jones will be a boom or bust target for Week 15 given that it seems likely he’ll be getting balls thrown to him by backup Chase Daniel ($5,000). Daniel certainly isn’t the worst backup in the league though and it’s worth noting that he connected for two TDs with WR Allen Robinson ($7,400) when he made a spot start for the Bears against a weak pass defense last season. For his part, Jones comes in having averaged 10 targets per game over the Lions’ last three contests and should be in a spot to get plenty more considering Detroit is set as 10.5-point underdogs here on DraftKings Sportsbook (that number could even go up if Stafford is confirmed out soon). Tennessee has been terrible at guarding against WRs too, allowing the second-most receptions and third-most DKFP to opposing WRs this year. Going with a full Lions stack may not be prudent, but Jones could certainly produce for you here on volume alone against such a weak group.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings ($3,900)
Mooney finally found the end zone last week, but with the Bears up big in the second half he ended the day with just two targets. The Bears could be in a position to throw a lot more in Week 15 against the Vikes, who possesses a flimsy defense and a potent offense of their own. Mooney will be going up against a secondary who possesses little talent and has given up the second-most TDs to WRs this year. Minnesota should also be overly concerned with limiting Allen Robinson ($7,400) in this spot, which could really open up the field for Mooney, who runs a 4.37 40m and could be matched up against CB Chris Jones a lot. Jones ran a pedestrian 4.57 40m out of college and has also allowed an 86% completion rate to WRs opposing him this year, the third-highest in the league this season. Mooney produced a bit at a low salary last week but could be in for an even better encore here and makes for a solid low-priced target in GPPs this week.
Just Missed: Amari Cooper ($6,400)
Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs ($3,400)
Cook is available at his lowest salary of the year this week and that immediately makes him an interesting target for me given the opponent. Kansas City has been forcing opponents into higher volume passing days on a weekly basis of late, with three of the last five QBs they’ve faced throwing 41-or-more times against them. Kansas City also hasn’t defended against the TE position well at all lately, allowing an average of 8.5 receptions to the position and a TD per game to opposing TEs over their last four contests. For his part, Cook has actually worked quite well with new QB Taysom Hill ($6,000), who has connected on TDs with Cook in each of the past two games. With 12 red zone targets on the year and a great matchup against a struggling coverage unit, even if Cook doesn’t push for more volume than he’s been seeing, his consistent red zone usage (12 red zone targets on the year, second most on the team) is going to give him a great shot at finding the end zone and paying off a bargain of a salary here.
Just Missed: Jordan Akins ($2,800)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,000) at Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons now sit at 4-8 and truly have no reason to go about risking the health of a player like Julio Jones ($6,900-questionable). With Jones hurt or out of the lineup the last four games, Matt Ryan ($5,400) has thrown for just 4 TDs vs. 6 INTs and averaged just 224 yards passing in that span. This Atlanta offense is in no shape to attack the secondary of the Bucs (which can be a weakness) and Tampa comes into this game off a six-sack performance and now sits fifth overall in sacks per game. Atlanta has also given up the 11th most sacks per game and will almost assuredly be forced to drop Ryan back a ton here against Tampa’s league leading rush defense which only allows 3.5 YPC (best in the league). Tampa looked like they got some of their swagger back last week and could be in line to be leading big late in this game, which always leads to great opportunities for turnovers and defensive TDs. If you have the salary, the Bucs make for a solid a mid-tier play this week against the lame Falcons.
Just missed: New England Patriots ($3,000)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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