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NFL Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for Week 15

Steve Buchanan breaks down the Week 15 DraftKings NFL slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

It’s Week 15 in the NFL. Sweet.

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Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

New York Jets (+1000) vs. Los Angeles Rams (-1667; -17.5)

At this point, I’m going to rename this section: “Who are the Jets losing to this week?” I think they’ve been in this section for nine weeks straight (didn’t actually go back and confirm to spare me). So yeah, here we go again.

The Jets are massive underdogs in Week 15, a scenario that’s seen them go 4-8 ATS while failing to cover by an average of 6.5 points. Of course, they’ve lost every game as well, so there’s that. The Rams OPENED as -16.5 point favorites, so the spread has only moved a point. As favorites, the Rams are 7-3 on the moneyline and 6-4 ATS, covering by an average of 1.2 points. With the spread as massive as it is, this is setting up for a massive spot for Cam Akers ($6,600), who the Rams forgot about until Week 13. Since then, he’s carried the ball 40 times after doing so a total of just 59 times prior. Akers has responded with 193 yards and a touchdown, averaging 4.8 YPC.

What else do I say about this game? I dunno. Trevor Lawrence.

Other notable favorites: Jacksonville Jaguars (+575) vs. Baltimore Ravens (-770; -12.5), Detroit Lions (+440) vs. Tennessee Titans (-560; -11)


Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Kansas City Chiefs (-3; 27.5 points ) vs. New Orleans Saints (25.5 points)

This game was injected with some Friday news, as Drew Brees ($5,900) will indeed be making his return, playing for the first time since Week 10. With Brees under center, the Saints were 7-2 hitting the over while averaging 30.1 points per game. I’d love to say Taysom Hill ($6,000) will be hitting the bench, but we all know Inspector GADGET will be on the field somehow.

The biggest boost from the news by far belongs to Alvin Kamara ($7,400), who should actually start seeing some targets again. He was averaging only four per game with Hill and 8.8 with Brees. Arguably the best weapon on the Saints, he should be back to his proper usage in this expected shootout and at a steal of a salary. Had Brees never missed anytime, you would never be getting him this cheap, as he was in the mid-$8K range with Brees active.

Not to be forgotten, the Chiefs haven’t been a great team at hitting the over, going 6-7 while covering by an average of just +0.6 points. Aside from being an awful team against the spread as of late, the Chiefs have hit the over in only two of their last four games — against the Dolphins and Raiders. The Saints, defensively, have been a strong team so there is some cause for concern about the over again. However, with the addition of Brees back into the mix, I do like the over on this total at 52.5.


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DVP Matchups

Worst QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

New York Jets, Los Angeles Rams, 14.7, 1st
Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, 16.6, 3rd
Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, 17.9, 6th

Best QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, 25.9, 32nd
Los Angeles Rams, New York Jets, 24.7, 31st
Washington Football Team, Seattle Seahawks, 24, 30th

Worst RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints, 17.7, 2nd
Seattle Seahawks, Washington Football Team, 19.5, 3rd
New York Jets, Los Angeles Rams, 19.7, 4th

Best RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, 32.9, 32nd
Tennessee Titans, Detroit Lions, 31.4, 31st
Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, 30, 30th

Worst WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

New York Jets, Los Angeles Rams, 30.1, 1st
New Orleans Saints, Kansas City Chiefs, 32.8, 2nd
Seattle Seahawks, Washington Football Team, 33.2, 3rd

Best WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Washington Football Team, Seattle Seahawks, 48.1 32nd
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, 44.8, 31st
Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, 43.6, 30th

Worst TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, 8.2, 1st
Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, 8.9, 3rd
Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, 10, 4th

Best TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Los Angeles Rams, New York Jets, 17.4 32nd
Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, 15.6, 29th
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons, 15.3, 27th


Target Report

Last Week’s Target Leaders

Week 17 Playoff Implications

Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Dalls Cowboys New York Giants DAL -3 45 Winner goes to playoffs if PHI beats WAS
Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers CLE -9 42 CLE W needed
Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills BUF -3.5 43 MIA W needed
Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals BAL -12.5 44 BAL W needed
Arizona Cardinals LA Rams ARI -3.5 40.5 Winner goes to playoffs
Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts IND -14 49.5 IND W needed
Tennesse Titans Houston Texans TEN -7.5 56 TEN W to clinch AFC South
Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears GB -5.5 51 GB W locks No.1 Seed & Bye
New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers NO -6.5 47.5 NO shot at No.1 Seed
Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers SEA -6.5 46 SEA shot at No.1 Seed

DraftKings Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans vs. Detroit Lions, $6,700 — I’m really digging using Tannehill this week in a game I think has a very good potential to shootout. The ownership is going to be heavily on Derrick Henry ($9,500), and rightfully so, but i think this will lead to a lot of people overlooking Tannehill. Just recently against a poor Browns secondary, Tannehill threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns, good for 31.5 DKFP. The Titans themselves aren’t exactly a great secondary, either, so it opens up a lot for Matt Stafford ($5,800) to respond, if he’s able to play through a ribs injury. With Tannehill working from a clean pocket, something he should see a lot versus the Lions, he has an 80% adjusted completion percentage, 19 of his 28 touchdowns thrown and 9.1 yards per pass attempt.


Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans vs. Detroit Lions, $7,600 — Brown returned to Titans’ practice on Friday, paving the way for him to play in this game. He’s by far the preferred target for Tannehill, as Brown owns a team-leading 20.8% target share overall and a 19.3% mark in the red zone, which is second. In coverage, Brown should draw CB Darryl Roberts, who has been targeted against 38 times, allowing 27 receptions (71.1% catch rate) 11.5 YPR and three touchdowns. As mentioned, I’m not against using Henry at all, as he’s in an amazing spot, but I think this is a great chance to get the lower-owned portion of this offense that is also in a very, very good matchup.


Top Running Back To Consider

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans, $7,200 — We have A LOT of running backs in really good spots this week, but, personally, Taylor is the one I’m most excited to use. If I’m rolling with the mentioned pairing and Taylor, I’m still in a good spot for the rest of my lineup with an average of $4,750 per player (get your cheap D/ST in there and now we’re cooking). Taylor has solidified his role as the RB1 and has responded with three games of at least 90 rushing yards, including 150 last week against the Raiders. I cannot speak about how terrible this Texans run defense is without using some non family-friendly words, so instead, I’ll let you know that they’ve allowed a league-leading 33 DKFP, 137 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns to opposing RBs.

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