A two-game slate on Saturday concludes with what should be a high-scoring affair between the Panthers and Packers, but you knew that already. Let’s just end this intro, ok?
Carolina Panthers: RB Christian McCaffrey (doubtful), Curtis Samuel (questionable)
Green Bay Packers: Jace Sternberger (out)
Davante Adams ($18,300 CP) — No one needs to be considered an analyst to tell you that Adams is the top captain option in this game. However, since I am one, I may as well go over some numbers and “analyze” why this is a good play.
Adams has a dominating 28.3% target share on the team. No one even comes CLOSE to that number. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,400) is second on the team and he’s at a mere 13.8%. When it comes to red-zone targets, same deal. Adams has a 35.5% share while Aaron Jones ($10,400) is second at 16.1%. In coverage, Adams will draw Jeremy Chinn, who has been targeted against 44 times, allowing 32 receptions (72.7% catch rate) and four touchdowns scored against. It’s not as if we’d be fading Adams against anyone in coverage but it’s worth mentioning regardless.
DJ Moore ($11,400 CP) — If you want to have a more balanced lineup, going a bit cheaper at captain will help you do that. Moore is a very interesting name to consider, especially with the idea that the Panthers will be playing from behind. Over on the DraftKings Sportsbook, the Panthers are +8 on the spread while Moore has a receiving prop of 61.5 yards (-112). That’s the third-highest total on the board and Moore is eighth in salary. This play would be even better if Curtis Samuel ($7,000) is ultimately ruled out.
Moore is one of the deep threats on this team, drawing 17 targets of at least 20 yards. In those scenarios, he’s made 10 receptions for 382 yards. Amongst receivers in the league with at least 15 targets of 200-plus yards, Moore’s 58.8% catch-rate is second-best in the league behind only Justin Jefferson of the Vikings at 61%. For what it’s worth, teammate Robby Anderson ($8,200) has 18 targets but only a 33.3% catch rate.
Other to consider: Aaron Jones ($15,600)
Robert Tonyan ($6,400) — This game isn’t exactly bursting with value, so unfortunately, Tonyan at $6,400 is topping the list as a “value.” Now, don’t get it twisted, I really like using him in this game as he’s been catching the eye of Aaron Rodgers ($11,200) plenty as of late. Tonyan has drawn five targets in four straight games with three of them coming in the red zone. This has also lead to him scoring a touchdown in four-straight games, which is quite remarkable. The Panthers are not a strong team against this position, allowing an average of 14.7 DKFP, 59 receiving yards and six touchdowns scored. As a mid-tier play, he’s a must.
Pharoh Cooper ($600) — This is contingent on if Samuel is active or not. Last week without Moore in the lineup, Cooper drew three targets and caught all of them for a total of 52 yards, including a 32-yard reception. He played on a season-high 58.2% of the offensive snaps, smashing his previous high of 26%. When Moore and Samuel have both been active, Cooper is lucky to crack double-digit offensive snaps. Nonetheless, he’s at the near minimum price and could potentially be thrust into a large role. If you’re looking to jam Adams into the captain spot, this could be the way to offset the salary burden.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,400) — When Rodgers is going deep down the field, it’s been MVS that’s been the target. He has 20 targets of 20-plus yards and has turned that into six receptions for 302 (!) yards, which is good for a 30% catch rate. While that doesn’t sound great, only eight of those targets were listed as catchable, so on those opportunities, he’s made the most of them. MVS is indeed the WR2 on this team, despite it not feeling like it because of how heavily they feed Adams.
Robby Anderson ($8,200) — This game is extremely top-heavy when it comes to players you want to pay up for. Adams, Rodgers, Jones, Bridgewater, Davis are all literally in play. So someone has to be faded and it’s Anderson for me. He draws one of the toughest matchups in coverage against CB Jaire Alexander, who has been targeted against 53 times, allowing 28 receptions (52.8% catch rate) and 10.1 YPR. Anderson should see plenty of targets in this game and his receiving prop is set at 72.5. While he has the capabilities to hit the over, I think this is an extremely tough matchup and could lead to more targets for Moore (we’d love that). For what it’s worth, Anderson is not getting targets in the red zone lately like he was at the beginning of the season. Since Week 6, he’s drawn five total after seeing six in the first five weeks.
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