It’s Week 15 in the NFL, and it’s once again time to survey each game for value player props. I am backing one of the hottest receivers in football to keep it going in a great matchup, fading one of the league’s most disappointing backs and buying low on a superstar in a smash spot. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yes, I’m going to chase three straight amazing weeks in a row and bank on a fourth here with Hilton. The matchup is great — the Texans rank 24th in passing defense with over 254 yards allowed per game — and Hilton has been receiving a boatload of targets from Philip Rivers — 18 to be exact over the past two weeks. The emergence of rookie Michael Pittman and the solid rushing attack established by Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines have opened things up for Hilton in recent weeks to get open, and he has shown us that he still has that breakaway speed that caused many to fall in love with him early in his career. If you weren’t already sold on the matchup and the target volume, consider the fact that Hilton will be guarded by Vernon Hargreaves, who Pro Football Focus ranks 116th out of 126 corners this season. T.Y. should eat here.
Admittedly, this isn’t one that I’m overly excited about given Tua’s season thus far, but it makes too much sense to me. No, if you look at Tua’s season, he has not opted to run as much as QBs like Kyler Murrays and Jalen Hurts, but last week’s six rushes for 24 yards could be something to build on. When you look at the performances that quarterbacks have put up against Bill Belichick on the ground, there is reason for encouragement. Seven quarterbacks in 13 games have surpassed the 15-yard mark on the ground, including Ryan Fitzpatrick the last time these two teams met. I think the Dolphins are beginning to make a concerted effort to get Tua to run the football more, but even so, just four carries should be required to get him to 16 yards.
Here is the sad truth about Zeke this season: He’s hit 58 yards just six times. That seems insane considering how talented we know he is. What’s more concerning is that his snap counts have dropped in each of the past four weeks; He played 69.7% of snaps in Week 10 against the Vikings, 66.1% in Week 11, 63.3% in Week 12 and a season-low 62.7% last week. Mike McCarthy just doesn’t have Elliott on the field a lot anymore, and all the while Tony Pollard is enjoying a healthy dose of touches on his roughly 40% of snaps. That’s just one side of the story; the 49ers have been stingy against running backs this year, never allowing a 100-yard game and ranking fifth with 3.9 yards-per-carry against. They’ve also given up eight 58-yard games. It just doesn’t appear to be in the stars for Zeke this week.
When Drew Brees was quarterbacking the Saints, there were just three games this year when Alvin Kamara didn’t hit seven receptions. Even last week, with Taysom Hill still at quarterback, Kamara hauled in seven of 10 targets as New Orleans made a point to get him more involved on offense. Now, Brees is back, and the Saints are going to be locked in an exciting game with the Chiefs that could very well turn into a shootout. Expect to see lots of Kamara.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.