It’s Week 16 in the NFL, and with just two more weeks to go in the regular season, it’s time to survey each game for value player props. I am backing a former All-Pro back to hit a low total in a starting role and heading to Dallas to take a pair of props in what should be a hotly-contested game. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Even with Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) in the lineup, Le’Veon Bell still managed 62 yards on 15 carries last week, playing just 32% of snaps. With Edwards-Helaire out on Sunday and the Chiefs likely running the ball all second half against a weak Falcons defense, Bell, who is averaging a respectable 4.0 yards per carry — right in line with his career average — should have a solid outing on Sunday. He won’t need to run like a madman to hit a measly 57 yards.
This line is a bit disrespectful to Lock, who has had plenty of success against weak defenses. The sophomore signal-caller had 248 yards and three touchdowns in a win over the Chargers earlier this year, with just one pick. I think he replicates that success against a team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in DVOA against the pass. Believe it or not, Lock has failed to hit this over in just four games this year (minus the game he was injured in), and that was against Buffalo, New England, Kansas City and Tennessee. Those defenses don’t mess around.
The books don’t know what to do here with Hurts. Is he the guy who runs for 100-plus yards, as he did two weeks ago, or the guy who opts to run just 11 times per game, as he did in last week’s loss to Arizona? I’m betting on the former, considering his appearance against the Packers saw him opt to run a ton in a limited amount of action. Dallas has perhaps the worst defense in football and actually ranks worse against the run (dead last at 32nd) than they do against the pass (eighth) after the narrative had been the opposite early in the year. Points and yards should be there for the taking for the Eagles in what’s a must-win game, and Hurts should use his legs upward of 15 times.
This is dumb value. Ward has been one of Jalen Hurts’ favorite targets in his first two starts, if not his favorite, receiving five targets in each of the past two games and going for two touchdowns in last week’s loss. Ward is a capable receiver and draws Jourdan Lewis, who is incredibly average at CB. I also like Dallas Goedert’s over (3.5 at +100 odds), as Goedert has been targeted 14 times in the past two games.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.