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Fantasy Football Picks: Titans vs. Packers DraftKings NFL DFS SNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Sunday’s 8:20 p.m. ET contest between the Titans and the Packers with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

We’ve yet to really have a game this NFL season all that impacted by snow, but that could change by Sunday evening. Leave it to Wisconsin, right? Weather reports are calling for snow and wind gusts of up to 25 mph in tonight’s clash between the Tennessee Titans and the Green Bay Packers. Will that change how you have to go about constructing your Showdown lineups?

Let’s break it all down.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (TEN vs GB)


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Enter now in the free-to-play Showdown contest for GB vs. TEN to win DraftKings swag. For every player that enters this contest, DraftKings will donate $1 to The Community Foundation of Middle Tennessee to help residents and businesses affected by the explosion in Nashville.

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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Derrick Henry ($18,600 CP) - It’s expensive. It’s expected. It’s basic. However, I’m simply not sure how one goes about fading Henry on this slate. The league leader in attempts (321) and rushing yards (1,679) is in another fantastic matchup this weekend, as Henry will go up against a Packers D/ST ($3,400) that has been eviscerated by opposing RBs so far this season. Despite teams running the football on a mere 40.1% of offensive snaps while playing Green Bay, the Packers have still managed to concede 4.60 adjusted line yards per carry and the sixth-most DKFP to the position overall. As for Henry himself, the Alabama product has exceeded 130 yards on the ground in four of his past five starts, a span of time where Henry is putting up an eye-popping 27.8 DKFP per contest. Sure, there’s a chance that this is the week Henry doesn’t find the end zone; yet with the Titans being one of just three teams averaging over four red zone trips per game, it’s a line of thinking without much backing.

Aaron Rodgers ($17,400 CP) - This is a bit of an interesting spot for Rodgers. Generally speaking, you would never be getting the All-Pro QB at a depressed ownership on a Showdown slate; however, with Henry and Davante Adams ($11,000) equally as alluring at 1.5x value, there’s a decent chance that Rodgers ends up with the lowest ownership of the talented trio. That’s not necessarily a mistake, but it is a buying window, as Tennessee comes into Week 16 with the worst pass defense of any AFC team according to DVOA. In fact, only Jacksonville, Dallas and Detroit have surrendered more opponent passing touchdowns per game so far in 2020. That’s not exactly the type of company you’d be expecting a 10-4 team to be keeping. In any case, it’s a matchup that Rodgers should be able to exploit, especially when you consider he currently leads the NFL in touchdown passes (40) and adjusted completion rate (80.9%). He’s also second in fantasy point scored per drop back (0.66). Just for good measure.


Value FLEX Plays

Robert Tonyan ($6,400) - After allowing a touchdown to an opposing TE in four of their first fives games of 2020, the Titans have recently performed better against the position. However, I’d still be inclined to take my chances with the ultra-efficient Tonyan. While it’s likely fool’s gold to believe that the tight end will be able to record a receiving TD in his sixth-straight contest on Sunday, Tonyan’s ability to maximize his opportunities is not a fluke. In fact, of the 145 players with at least 40 targets this season, Tonyan’s 90.7% catch rate is the highest of the group. His consistency is a skill that should prove valuable, especially with Tennessee surrendering 8.3 yards per target to TEs — the third-worst figure in the NFL.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,800) - There might not be a player on this slate with a lower floor than Valdes-Scantling — as evidenced by the fact that the wideout has gone without a catch in three of his past four games — yet, at the same time, he fits a pretty obvious GPP archetype. MVS might only have 31 catches for far this season, but he’s certainly made them count. Among all qualified players, Valdes-Scantling leads the league in yards gained per reception (19.5), while he also sits second to just Tyreek Hill in touchdown catches of over 40 yards (3). Again, he’s a frustrating type of asset to have in your lineup, but his upside against a secondary that’s struggled as much as Tennessee’s is tantalizing.

AJ Dillon ($1,400) - With so many expensive pieces on this slate, Dillon could be the key to making all the salaries work. Maybe that’s a strange amount of importance to be placing on an asset who’s garnered a mere 25 touches throughout his rookie campaign; yet the likely absence of Jamaal Williams ($3,000; quad) looms large. Honestly, let’s not understate Tyler Ervin (foot) missing this contest, either. Basically, Dillon is the last man standing when it comes to Green Bay’s backup RBs, and while that might just mean that Aaron Jones ($9,400) logs another 90% snap count on Sunday night, I’d be surprised if the second-round pick wasn’t given a few opportunities to shine.


Fades

A.J. Brown ($9,000) - Someone has to draw the short straw among the star players on this slate and Brown is the easy choice when factoring in his volume and matchup. Yes, Brown has proven to be a hyper-efficient DFS asset within a Titans offense that leans heavily towards rushing the football; but that still doesn’t mean I have to be thrilled that Ryan Tannehill ($10,600) has been asked to throw the ball 27 times or fewer in five of Tennessee’s past seven games. On top of that, there’s the matter of Jaire Alexander — possibly the NFC’s best cover corner and a man Brown should see quite a lot of considering he’s run 62% of his routes on the left-side of the field in 2020. After all, there’s a reason that the Packers are allowing the third-fewest amount of DKFP to opposing wideouts.


THE OUTCOME

This is truly a matchup of strength versus weakness on both sides of the ball. The Titans should be able to run at will, while the Packers should have little issue moving down the field through the air. I’ll give the slight advantage to the home team, but if you’re looking for a betting angle, I’d simply take the over. Tennessee has been hitting the over at an insane frequency with the aforementioned Tannehill under center, with the Titans hitting the number in 20 of their last 27 contests.

Final Score: Green Bay 34, Tennessee 30

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (TEN vs GB)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.