The Bills and Patriots meet for an AFC East showdown on MNF, but the game doesn’t carry the same hype it usually does. A win for the Bills would be meaningful, boosting them up to the No. 2 seed in the AFC. However, this will be the first regular-season game since 2000 that the Patriots will play knowing they’ve already been eliminated from the postseason. That mucks this game up a little as to how we figure out how the Patriots may treat it. Here’s what jumps out for Monday on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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This is a tough game for betting angles, so I’m keeping it pretty simple with both bets. We’ve been waiting for the letdown spot for Buffalo for weeks, and it just doesn’t seem to be happening. The last time the Bills actually won by single digits was back in Week 8 against these very Patriots. They lost the “Hail Mary” in Arizona on a very fluky play, but outside of that, the Bills have won five in a row, all by 10 or more points. I’m not getting in the way of this team with a chance to jump up to the No. 2 seed in the AFC this week. Meanwhile, the Patriots are in uncharted territory, playing a completely meaningless game. The defense is without some key pieces, and Cam Newton simply can’t move this offense. I’ll buy the half point to push on the touchdown just in case.
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One of the reasons the Patriots aren’t still fighting for a playoff spot is the QB play. Newton has been downright awful. I looked at several props to fade him, and we successfully did with passing yards against the Rams. In the end, just playing under on his overall production feels like the safest play, and that can be done on DKSB when we focus on fantasy points. Cam’s scored 12 or fewer fantasy points in three of his past four games, and there’s still a real chance the team turns to Jarrett Stidham to finish the season. It makes no sense why Newton is even starting this game, to begin with. Between the poor play and the potentially looming QB change, I’ll fire on almost any Cam under. I just feel this is the safest on the board.
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