We’re coming off a day in which we saw the Clippers lose by 51, the Knicks blowout the Bucks, the Cavs blowout the Sixers and the Hornets upset the Nets. Long story short, we’re off to an unpredictable start in the NBA. Let’s drive into Monday’s five-game card, where it looks like the majority of the edges are in the player prop market.
Memphis Grizzlies at Brooklyn Nets: Caris LeVert OVER 20.5 points (-124)
This line actually shut down while I was writing it up, as Kyrie Irving was ruled out on top of Kevin Durant — both will be resting. On top of that, Spencer Dinwiddie was lost for the season due to a torn ACL. This is going to be the LeVert show, much like we saw at the end of the regular season, and in the bubble. Even if this opens back up at 23.5, I’m fine playing that number given the bodies on the floor, and the pace Memphis plays. LeVert showed 50-point upside in these situations last season.
Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks:
The Pistons will be without both Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose, but play in a fast paced matchup against the Hawks as double-digit underdogs. That means others are going to have to step up and stuff the stat sheet, and we can hopefully take advantage in the prop market. All three of these guys should be popular DFS plays on Monday, and with good reason. Here’s a breakdown on the pretty elementary thought process on these props.
Grant I like on the three-way, given his versatility. He let down in the season opener, but followed it up with 28 points, 10 boards and two assists against the Cavs. That game did go to double overtime, but shows that Grant will be in a huge role this season, especially with two of the key vets on the bench.
Wright payed just 19 minutes and shot 2 of 5 in the opener, but he’s clearly in line for a larger role. He played 42 minutes the second game, and despite double OT, was in line to see about 15 more minutes in the rotation. He shot 5-for-9 for 19 points in that game, and should see plenty of minutes and shot attempts with the two stars out.
Finally, Plumlee is averaging exactly 8.5 boards through the first two games, playing 32.5 minutes. Even if he only plays a few more minutes with Blake out, it’ll also open up some in the paint. The Hawks also play at a good pace to get in a lot of possessions, upping Plumlee’s chances on the glass.
Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets: James Harden OVER 46.5 points, rebounds, assists (-143)
The Rockets are down to the bare bones, with Christian Wood really the only other capable threat alongside Harden. Houston is without John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, and Eric Gordon, among others for this game. In the opener, Harden finished with 44 points, 17 assists and four rebounds against the Blazers. Even a casual 35-10-5 line from Harden easily gets us there. Don’t be afraid of the big number. Harden is doing everything for this team.
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