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NFL Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for Week 13

Steve Buchanan breaks down the Week 13 DraftKings NFL slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

No one cares about the intro to an article. So just go ahead and read what I wrote below for Week 13.

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Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

Cincinnati Bengals (+450) at Miami Dolphins (-560; -11.5)

This will be week two of the Bengals enduring life after Joe Burrow, as they started Brandon Allen ($4,800) in Week 12. As you’d expect, Allen wasn’t all that effective, completing 17-of-29 (58.6%) pass attempts for 136 yards (yeesh) with a touchdown and interception thrown. As you’d expect with this Bengals offensive line, Allen was under pressure plenty, being so on 42% of his drop backs and taking two sacks. His overall 4.7 yards per pass attempt was putrid, especially against a beatable Giants secondary. Now he faces a better Dolphins defense and I can’t imagine life gets much better here.

The Dolphins’ pass rush hovers around league average but does the Giants’ and they were on Allen plenty. It’s hard to have any faith that the Bengals can do much of anything to pull out a victory here, hence the juiced up lines. The Dolphins are also tied with the Steelers for the best overall record against the spread at 8-3. They’re covering by an average margin of +8.5 points, which is the largest in the league. The Bengals are a good 7-4 ATS, as well, but the drastic change under center will quickly ruin that record. This is a great spot for the Dolphins if you’re looking for an easy favorite.

Other notable favorites: New York Giants (+380) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-10; -500), Jacksonville Jaguars (+390) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-10; -480)


Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Cleveland Browns (23.5 points) at Tennessee Titans (29.5 points; -5.5) 53.5 points

The Titans are the best team in the league at hitting the over, boasting an 8-2-1 record and covering by an average of +6.5 points. The Browns aren’t too shabby themselves, going 6-5 and covering by an average of +2.0 points. Now we have these two teams clashing this week with a total that hasn’t seen much movement after opening at 52.5.

Both these teams struggle to defend against the pass, setting up for a potential shootout. Add in the combination of Derrick Henry ($9,200), Nick Chubb ($7,700) and Kareem Hunt ($5,400) in the same game and the potential for points (both on the scoreboard and fantasy) is massive. We have some mismatches to consider in those one, like A.J. Brown ($7,600) against CB Terrance Mitchell, who has an average of 12.8 YPR on 34 receptions. Jarvis Landry ($6,200), who drew 11 targets last week, is also in a great spot against CB Desmond King, who has really struggled since joining the Titans. Since coming to the team, he’s been targeted against 16 times, allowing 12 receptions for an average of 12.0 YPR. This game feels like a safe play on taking the over and one to consider stacking for your lineups.


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DVP Matchups

Worst QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, 15.1, 1st
Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, 16.9, T-3rd
Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, 16.9, T-3rd

Best QB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, 27.1, 32nd
New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, 26.8, 31st
Minnesota Vikings, Jacksonville Jaguars, 24.1, 30th

Worst RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, 16.8, 1st
New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, 19.7, 4th
Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, 20.5 6th

Best RB Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Chicago Bears, Detroit Lions, 33.5, 32nd
Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans 32.9, 31st
Philadelphia Eagles, Green Bay Packers, 31.8, 30th

Worst WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Rams, 30.4, T-1st
Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, 31, 3rd
New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers, 33.1, 5th

Best WR Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, 53.7, 32nd
New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, 45, 31st
Jacksonville Jaguars, Minnesota Vikings, 44, 30th

Worst TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, 7.6, 2nd
Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins, 9.1, T-3rd
Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts 9.1, T-3rd

Best TE Matchups

Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank

New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, 15.7, T-29th
San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, 15.7, T-29th
Detroit Lions, Chicago Bears, 15.7, T-29th


Target Report

Last Week’s Target Leaders

Week 17 Playoff Implications

Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Team Opponent Spread Over/Under Playoff Implication
Dalls Cowboys New York Giants DAL -3 45 Winner goes to playoffs if PHI beats WAS
Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers CLE -9 42 CLE W needed
Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills BUF -3.5 43 MIA W needed
Baltimore Ravens Cincinnati Bengals BAL -12.5 44 BAL W needed
Arizona Cardinals LA Rams ARI -3.5 40.5 Winner goes to playoffs
Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts IND -14 49.5 IND W needed
Tennesse Titans Houston Texans TEN -7.5 56 TEN W to clinch AFC South
Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears GB -5.5 51 GB W locks No.1 Seed & Bye
New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers NO -6.5 47.5 NO shot at No.1 Seed
Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers SEA -6.5 46 SEA shot at No.1 Seed

DraftKings Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,400 — It’s always disappointing when you land on Cousins as one of your top plays of the week because quite frankly, I never get excited about using him. But, I have to give credit when it’s due and Cousins has been great as of late. Week 13 brings a matchup against a very poor Jags secondary and a defensive line that will offer very little pass rush. When Cousins has worked with a clean pocket this season, he boasts an 81% adjusted completion percentage, an average of 9.3 yards per pass attempt and 19 of his 23 touchdowns thrown. While it’s always a concern that Dalvin Cook ($9,500) runs over and over, Cousins has at least 30 pass attempts in three-straight games and is averaging 29 overall on the year. Truly, take the name “Kirk Cousins” out of the equation and all these numbers indicate a great spot for the “mystery quarterback.”


Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $7,300 —After being activated off the COVID-19 list earlier in the week, Thielen should be ready to go in this game after a one week absence. A week before landing on the list, he posted his best fantasy output of the season against the Cowboys, catching eight of his 11 targets for 123 yards and two touchdowns — good for a season-high 35.3 DKFP. His matchup is an excellent one this week, as he should see plenty of CB Luq Barcoo. He’s only played two games but in coverage, has been targeted against eight times, allowing five receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown. Thielen, who still holds a team-leading 25% target share, should be in for a day in Week 13.


Top Running Back To Consider

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans, $7,700 — Chubb has been a beast since returning to Browns offense in Week 10 against the Texans. Backed by a very favorable schedule, he’s averaged 128 (!) rushing yards per game while he’s received no fewer than 19 carries. An added bonus, he made three catches last week against the Jaguars, although I don’t expect that trend to continue. Nonetheless, he now faces a Titans team in one of the highest projected totals of the week. The Titans run defense has been doing a phenomenal Jekyll and Hyde impersonation week after week. They’ll have a hellacious time stopping Chubb, who has one of the best yard after contact averages in the league at 4.43, albeit a smaller sample than most.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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