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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 13

Steve Buchanan gives his top studs and values at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate, which locks at 1:00 p.m. ET.

You came here to read about some of my picks for the Week 13 NFL slate on DraftKings, right? Cool. Let’s do that instead of a dumb intro that half of you don’t read anyways.

Oh, but at least follow me on Twitter. @SBuchanan24.

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Quarterback

Stud

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $6,400 — I’m not crazy about paying up at quarterback this week and thus it’s always disappointing when you land on Cousins as one of your top plays of the week. Quite frankly, I never get excited about using him. But, I have to give credit when it’s due and Cousins has been great as of late. Week 13 brings a matchup against a very poor Jags secondary and a defensive line that will offer very little pass rush. When Cousins has worked with a clean pocket this season, he boasts an 81% adjusted completion percentage, an average of 9.3 yards per pass attempt and 19 of his 23 touchdowns thrown. While it’s always a concern that Dalvin Cook ($9,500) runs over and over, Cousins has at least 30 pass attempts in three-straight games and is averaging 29 overall on the year. Truly, take the name “Kirk Cousins” out of the equation and all these numbers indicate a great spot for the “mystery quarterback.”

Other Option – Aaron Rodgers ($6,800)

Value

Mitch Trubisky, Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions, $5,400 — Profiling Cousins and Trubisky wasn’t exactly my plan for this week, but it’s how the slate is shaking out. At his price point, it’s hard not to like Trubisky here. After earning his first start since Week 3, Trubisky threw for 242 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions against a tough Packers secondary. He didn’t run as much as we’d like but the element is still part of his game. Now he has a MUCH softer matchup against the Lions at only a $300 salary increase. Trubisky will face minimal pressure and can throw against a secondary that is amongst the worst in the league. It’s hard to find any of the Bears receivers in bad matchups in coverage, especially Allen Robinson ($6,700) against CB Amani Oruwariye, who is allowing an average of 17.8 YPR.

Other Option – Jared Goff ($5,800)


Running Back

Stud

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans $7,700 – Chubb has simply been a beast since returning to the Browns offense, logging three-straight weeks with 100-plus rushing yards. He’s averaged 128 rushing yards since his return and now goes up against the Titans in a projected shootout. When he’s been on the field, the 4.43 average yards after contact is amongst the best in the league, although he’s not qualified because of the number of games he’s missed. At this rate, I wouldn’t want to be fading Chubb, especially with Kareem Hunt ($5,400) logging limited practice reps throughout the week. While these two compliment each other extremely well, Chubb is averaging 51.3% of the carries since he returned compared to 36% for Hunt.

Other Options – Miles Sanders ($6,700)

Value

Damien Harris, New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers, $5,200 – Finding some decent value at running back this week is a struggle, so Harris is looking like the best we got (barring any late news). His matchup is a good one against the Chargers, who have not been strong against the run. Opposing backs have at least 94 rushing yards and 4.1 YPC in six-straight games. Harris has been extremely efficient when running the ball, but his lack of pass catching opportunities is his downfall. Nonetheless, he’s second on the team in red zone opportunities and has been the go-to option if Cam Newton ($5,800) is not taking it himself. The loss of Rex Burkhead (knee), who was active in the red zone, has further increased Harris’ load.

Other Options – David Montgomery ($5,500)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $7,300 – I’m really excited to play Thielen this week, who is set to return after being activated off the COVID-19 list. His matchup is an excellent one this week, as he should see plenty of CB Luq Barcoo. He’s only played two games but in coverage, has been targeted against eight times, allowing five receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown. While Cousins has developed a rapport with Justin Jefferson ($6,900), Thielen is by far his favorite target. I’m not letting the recent output by Jefferson to dissuade me, but the rookie is also very much in play this week. While the Vikings LOVE to run the ball with Cook in the red zone, Thielen does have a stranglehold on the targets in this scenario with a 38.5% share.

Other Options – Tyler Lockett ($7,400), Cooper Kupp ($6,100)

Value

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans, $4,900 – Pittman Jr. gets a solid boost this week now that we’ve learned that CB Bradley Roby is suspended for the season. This now opens up a really good spot for Pittman, who should now see CB Keion Crossen in coverage. He’s hardly played this season but has allowed four of his five targets to be caught for 19 yards. However, Pittman has a massive size advantage on him at 6’4” compared to the 5’10” Crossen. A poor showing last week against the Titans could suppress his ownership, but he continues to see a healthy amount of targets with at least seven in three of the last four games.

Other Options – Josh Reynolds ($4,200), Andy Isabella ($3,200)


Tight End

Stud

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers, $4,300 – The tight end position, per usual, is a complete disaster. I want to keep it blank, quite frankly. But, I suppose I’ll play Goedert in a game where the Eagles are +8.5 underdogs on the DraftKings Sportsbook. Even with Zach Ertz ($3,900) expected to return, the sentiment is that the Eagles will “be smart” with his usage. This sounds like plenty of targets remaining for Goedert, who is averaging 19.3% of the team total since the bye week and with Ertz off the field. For his price point, Goedert is very much in play for me.

Other Options – Darren Waller ($6,100)

Value

Anthony Firkser, Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns, $2,500 – News came out on Friday that Jonnu Smith (knee) would be out for this game against the Browns. That’s good news for the minimum priced Firkser, who should be the biggest beneficiary with Smith out. Firkser is already taking up 12.3% of the overall target share and that could easily slide up in this very good matchup. The Browns have been one of the worst teams against opposing tight ends, allowing an average of 15.7 DKFP and 56 receiving yards per game, with eight touchdowns overall. This is essentially a free square play and if anything, will help fit the rest of your lineup in.


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals, $3,200 – I really liked the Rams last week against the 49ers and they scored us 15 DKFP. Amazingly, they dropped $500 in salary for Week 13 against the Cardinals. Kyler Murray ($7,600) is of course one of the best mobile quarterbacks in the game right now, but the Cardinals offensive line has allowed pressure on 27% of his drop backs. Murray has taken 18 sacks on the season and has a 69.2% adjusted completion percentage when under pressure. While this isn’t a smash play like last week against the Niners, taking the discount is welcomed.

Other Option – Indianapolis Colts ($3,000)

Value

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints, $2,400 – On the Panel B Podcast, which you can watch in the video at the top of this article, I went into how this is one of my favorite games to take the under on. The Falcons pass rush has been quite good as of late and Taysom Hill ($6,300) isn’t exactly one to escape in those situations. Hill has been under pressure on 37% of his drop backs, resulting in seven sacks. When these teams faced a few weeks ago, Hill was under pressure on 40% of his drop backs and was sacked three times. This is too cheap of a play to ignore.

Other Option – Los Angeles Chargers ($2,600)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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