clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Fantasy Football Picks: Broncos vs. Chiefs DraftKings NFL DFS SNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Sunday’s 8:20 p.m. ET contest between the Broncos and the Chiefs with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

Let’s not sugar coat anything. If you’re a fan of the Denver Broncos, it’s not been the easiest week. I’m sure you’re currently in a place where you’d rather not hear the name “Kendall Hinton” anymore, but the Wake Forest product will now forever be synonymous with the franchise after COVID restrictions left Denver without a QB in Week 12. The good news? The Broncos will have Drew Lock ($9,200) back in the fold for this Sunday’s matchup. The bad new? Denver’s once again a double-digit underdog going up against a Kansas City Chiefs squad that looks unstoppable.

Let’s dive in and break it all down from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st + $50K 1st] (DEN vs KC)



SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Travis Kelce ($16,200 CP) - Alright. We all know the drill. Whenever we’re blessed with the Chiefs on a primetime slate, difficult salary decisions are on the horizon. Namely, whether you’ll be pairing your Patrick Mahomes ($13,200) shares with Tyreek Hill ($12,200) or Kelce. For this particular slate, I’m leaning towards the latter. There are a couple reasons for this. First, Hill happens to be coming off one of the better DFS performance of all-time last Sunday, as the speedy wideout racked up 269 yards, three touchdowns and 60.9 DKFP. As you might expect, Hill’s salary reflects this insane showing, yet I’m confident people will still be eager to get the WR into their lineups. However, the stats suggest that Kelce’s probably the superior play. Going back to the beginning of Week 3, Denver has allowed the ninth-most yards per opponent target to tight ends, but the second-fewest yards per target to opposing wide receivers (7.4). Considering Hill and Kelce account for 50.0% of Kansas City’s red zone targets and 61.0% of the team’s air yards, one of the two is going to go off. This week, I’ll take my chances with all All-Pro TE.

Drew Lock ($13,800 CP) - Pretty standard move considering the likely game script, but with the Broncos checking in as two-touchdown road underdogs, I think we can all agree that Lock will be asked to throw the ball quite a bit in this contest. Now, to be fair, volume doesn’t necessarily equate to success when it comes to the second-year pivot. In fact, in this exact same matchup back in October, Lock turned 40 attempts into just 14.96 DKFP. That’s what can happen when you’re only averaging 0.37 fantasy points per drop back — the third-fewest among all QBs with at least 200 pass attempts in 2020. Still, two more recent examples of Lock trailing by a wide margin have been more palatable for owners, as the former second-round pick racked up 20.82 DKFP and 33.22 DKFP against the Chargers and the Falcons, respectively. Heck, Lock’s actually thrown the ball at least 40 times in four of his last five starts. That may not guarantee anything, yet it’s a tempting trend in a matchup with a Chiefs defense that’s conceded the seventh-most DKFP to opposing quarterbacks this season.


FLEX Plays

Chiefs D/ST ($6,400) - As I mentioned above, there’s a great chance that Lock is forced to throw the ball at least 40 times in this game. While that does create an opportunity for the sophomore QB to score some fantasy points of his own, that’s also 40-plus chances for the mistake-prone Lock to, well, make a mistake. Though you have to note that last week’s monstrosity of a football game is somewhat weighing down these numbers, the Broncos come into Week 13 averaging a turnover on a league-high 20.0% of their drives. They also rank 31st in yards per drive (28.4) and points per drive (1.61). To be very blunt, Denver is not a well constructed football team and Lock’s 4.1% interception rate is ghastly. With Kansas City’s defense sitting inside the top 5 in the NFL in turnovers forced per drive (0.15), I’d anticipate them making a few big plays. If not, you’ve also got an outside shot at the explosive Mecole Hardman ($4,400) doing something in the return game.

Jerry Jeudy ($5,400) - Obviously you’ll have to keep an eye on Jeudy, who has been ruled questionable to play in this matchup with an ankle injury, but if the rookie is active, I’m going to have a hard time not investing heavily. Putting aside last weekend’s debacle, Jeudy’s been trending in a really nice direction since the first return of Lock. In fact, from Week 8 to Week 11, Jeudy sat fourth among all wide receivers in targets (40) and first among all wide receivers in air yards (622). Yes, some of that is going to be empty calories with an inconsistent quarterback, but there’s no denying that Lock and Jeudy’s ceilings are heavily correlated. KJ Hamler ($1,800) is another Broncos’ skill-position player to acknowledge — as he’s registered 26 targets in Lock’s past three starts — yet it’s not like you’re breaking the bank for Hamler’s more accomplished teammate.

Demarcus Robinson ($4,800) - With no disrespect to Robinson — who has 18 receptions and two touchdowns across Kansas City’s past two games — this isn’t a guy who you necessarily come into a slate looking to own, but more often than not, he finds his way into a lineup or two. Robinson’s modest price point just tends to make things work from a construction standpoint and he pairs well with expensive pieces like Mahomes and Kelce. It’s also important to note that the return of Sammy Watkins ($7,000) against the Buccaneers didn’t have all that large an impact on Robinson’s role. After logging over 80% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps in Week 9 and Week 11, the 26-year-old was on the field for 57 of the team’s 79 plays this past Sunday. If that remains the case in this matchup with the Broncos, Robinson possesses a very sturdy DFS floor.


Fades

Phillip Lindsay ($4,200) - I’ll admit, at first glance, I was pretty intrigued by Lindsay’s microscopic price tag, but the more I dug in, the more I realized it was deserved. While Lindsay has seen as many as 16 touches as recently as Week 11, it’s the quality of those opportunities that’s concerning. While Melvin Gordon ($7,800) is seeing 51.7% of Denver’s carries inside the red zone this season, Lindsay’s share has been just 13.8%. In fact, Lock has more rushing attempts in that area of the field, while Lindsay’s lone rushing touchdown was a 55-yarder back in Week 8. Not exactly a sustainable path to production. On top of all that, the former UDFA has a measly two catches to his name in 2020, basically ruining his value in a full-point PPR setting. Again, seeing Lindsay this cheap may be jarring at first, yet he’s definitely earned the discount.


THE OUTCOME

Though the Chiefs are 9-2-1 ATS over their past 12 home games, I could see this as a spot where they get caught playing with their food. Kansas City won’t really have any urgency in this one — despite the allure of wrapping up the AFC West — while Denver will want to redeem themselves after an embarrassing loss. Does that mean I think the Broncos are going to win? Goodness no. However, a backdoor cover could be in the cards.

Final Score: Kansas City 34, Denver 24

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st + $50K 1st] (DEN vs KC)


Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.


Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO) or 1-800-BETS OFF (IA). 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.