We’ll get the chance to see Patrick Mahomes once again on Sunday Night Football as he rides into a matchup with the Denver Broncos as a near two-touchdown favorite. With some sides, totals and props being offered, here’s what jumps out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook for this game.
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It’s true, the Chiefs have failed to finish off opponents all season long and let them hang in games; just last week Kansas City failed to cover against the Buccaneers after one of the worst second halves you’ll ever see from a team dominating the contest. Both teams come into this one 6-5 against the spread this season, though the Broncos have covered just twice in their past six games, including a blowout 43-16 loss to the Chiefs where they were just seven-point underdogs. This time, Kansas City has the benefit of playing at home, in front of a small crowd, where they are 8-4 as a favorite dating back to the beginning of last year. Denver has actually been great against the pass lately, but they’ve had the benefit of facing Taysom Hill and Tua Tagovailoa over the past two weeks. All signs point to Patrick Mahomes providing a much tougher test here.
Recency bias promises to come into play here with the Broncos, who scored just three points against the Saints a week ago. The over has actually hit in three of the Broncos’ past six games, including that Kansas City loss. Denver managed 16 points there, and with Drew Lock back I’m confident they can at least punch it in once here. Mahomes, meanwhile, has already shredded this secondary once in 2020 and now might have the benefit of facing this unit minus Malik Reed, who popped up on the injury report this week. This elite offense shouldn’t slow down and should get a little help from Lock, who had thrown for six touchdowns in three games before going scoreless in his last game against the Dolphins.
This has been one of my favorite spots over the past few weeks. The Chiefs don’t just use Hill on deep balls, they like to get him the ball for short out routes as well to keep defenders honest. He’s received a ridiculous 47 targets in his past three games and hauled in 33 catches. This number is insanely short, especially considering A.J. Bouye has struggled this season. Hill should be a nightmare and might hit this on the first drive.
The Chiefs aren’t the best at covering tight ends. Just last week, Rob Gronkowski went for six catches and 106 yards and the week before that Darren Waller and Jason Witten both scored touchdowns, with the former totaling 88 yards on seven grabs. Fant is one of the league’s more talented tight ends with a lethal combination of size and speed, and with Lock at the helm he has been a focal point of Denver’s passing attack. He has yet to really have the breakout game many have anticipated, but he doesn’t need to in order to hit this very low total. I like this a lot, as well as his receptions over (3.5 at -143).
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