clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Fantasy Football Picks: Bills vs. 49ers DraftKings NFL DFS MNF Showdown Strategy

Julian Edlow preps you for Monday’s 8:15 p.m. ET NFL contest between the Bills and 49ers with game-script analysis and DraftKings Captain’s Picks.

NFL: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Bills and 49ers meet in a significant MNF game with both teams battling for playoff position in their respective conferences. With the issues going on in San Francisco, we’ll be moving this one to a neutral-field setting in Arizona. In a tough game to call, let’s breakdown some DFS targets for Bills-Niners.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Monday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st + $25K 1st TD Bonus] (BUF vs SF)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Buffalo Bills

The “Hail Murray” set Buffalo back briefly, and while the Bills have the inside track on the AFC East, the Dolphins and even Patriots aren’t quite dead yet. They’ll need to get a game against a tough defense here in Arizona, leaving offensive weapons in a difficult spot. Josh Allen ($11,600) is the most expensive play on the slate, but faces a SF defense that ranks second in DKFP allowed to QB. Proceed with caution, but Allen’s rushing ability does give him a safe floor if you do want to pay up here.

If you do pay for Allen, it’s tough to justify fading Stefon Diggs ($10,800). You’re pretty strapped for salary after this stack, but we can find a couple of values to make it work. Diggs has scored double-digit DKFP in every game this season, and is averaging exactly 10 targets per game. Cole Beasley ($6,800) would be the alternative here if you need to save cash. Targeting the slot against a good defense could be in the game plan for the Bills, but after a big start to the season, Beasley has busted in three of the last four. I’d prefer to go down even cheaper for rookie Gabriel Davis ($5,800), who’s shown some big-play potential. Over his last four games, he has a pair of goose eggs, but also scored 17 DKFP in each of the other two games.

Zack Moss ($6,600) and Devin Singletary ($6,200) are nothing more than GPP fliers in this one. They are too priced-up for their near-even timeshare, and the matchup isn’t a good one. The Niners rank seventh in DKFP allowed to RB this season, and neither back has shown much of a ceiling. If I had to play one, I’d take the slight discount on Singletary. He had more carries than Moss in Week 12, and plays a larger role in the receiving game.

TE has been a disaster for the Bills. Even when they score, it’s barely reaching value. With San Francisco a top-three team against the position, I’d fade altogether.

I much prefer rostering Tyler Bass ($3,600) than a TE, who’s been tremendous for Buffalo. You can see in the player pool that he’s averaging over 10 DKFP, and that has been due to hitting a lot of kicks the last five weeks. The Bills really trust Bass, and against a good defense, getting field goals on the board will be big. Bass is averaging 14.6 DKFP over the last five contests.

It’s weakness on weakness, but the Niners are shaky enough offensively to consider playing Bills DST ($4,600). Even if San Francisco wins, it’s likely by running the ball in a low-scoring game. The Bills DST is averaging 8.4 DKFP over the last five, but I’d still rather save $1,000 and play the kicker.


San Francisco 49ers

This isn’t a very exciting offense, but coming off a win over the Rams and that defense, there should be some upside here against the Bills. Nick Mullens ($10,200) is never fun to roster, but we did see him go for over 17 DKFP in a good matchup against Seattle. This is an even better matchup, with the Bills ranking dead-last in DKFP allowed to QB. Pivoting off Allen to Mullens has appeal in GPPs.

Deebo Samuel ($8,800) is coming off a huge game in the win over the Rams — an 11-133-0 line for 27.3 DKFP on 13 targets. He won’t see quite as many looks with Brandon Aiyuk ($7,000) back on the field for the first time since Week 10, but both of these guys are in great spots. Aiyuk was averaging over 20 DKFP in his last three games prior to going on the reserve/COVID-19 list. The last time these two shared the field was in Week 7 against New England. Kendrick Bourne ($5,400) has found some recent production, but that just leaves him overpriced with the 49ers’ top-two WRs back on the field. In that Week 7 game both played in, Bourne was shutout on just one target. Ever since Richie James ($2,600) had that monster TNF game against Green Bay, the Niners have kept him on the field for some limited targets. He could see a larger role than Bourne.

As for TE, Jordan Reed ($5,000) hasn’t been as good as you’d hope with George Kittle shutdown. But Reed has been targeted six times in consecutive games, and now gets a great matchup, with Buffalo ranking 27th in DKFP allowed to TE. This could be a breakout spot, consider rostering him.

The Niners are finally getting healthy in that crowded backfield and should try to gash the Bills on the ground in this one, with the offense built to ground and pound. A healthy Raheem Mostert ($9,600) returned to lead the backfield in Week 12, but could be overpriced in this one. Mostert finished with a 16-43-1 line on the ground, and also caught both his targets against a stout Rams defense. Things should open up this time around, you just have to pay for it.

Jeff Wilson Jr. ($1,800) also played last week for the first time since Week 7 and was afforded 12 carries. That’s much stronger value compared to Mostert. But be careful, Tevin Coleman ($2,200) should make his return this week, playing in just his fourth game of the season. Jerick McKinnon ($1,400) also lurked for three carries and three targets last week.

While I prefer the Buffalo side, kicker and defense is an option again here.


THE OUTCOME

I’m having a really tough time deciding on this game, but I think the Niners’ defense and running game should be able to get this one done. There’s two completely different ways I’d approach captain here. You can pay up big for Mostert ($14,400 CPT) and get a couple of value plays in at the bottom of your lineup, or just go with Bass ($5,400 CPT), and then load the lineup with studs.

Final Score: Buffalo 23, San Francisco 24

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Monday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st + $25K 1st TD Bonus] (BUF vs SF)


Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.


For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA) or TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789.21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/NH/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL/TN only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.