Another week in the NFL, another awkward MNF doubleheader. The good news is, we have two games to bet on, not to mention, Tuesday Night Football still to come! Here’s what jumps out for Monday on DraftKings Sportsbook.
After opening +10.5, Washington is all the way down to +6 in this game. This is a really tough game for Pittsburgh regardless of opponent, simply due to the schedule. After waiting forever to play a decimated Ravens team, Pittsburgh won but didn’t cover in a close game on Wednesday afternoon. Now the Steelers are back at it on a short week with another odd kickoff time. Ben Roethlisberger is banged up, and the Washington defense is actually legitimate. Washington has been playing solid football, and Alex Smith is getting better start by start. Meanwhile, the Steelers keep winning but are playing down to their competition. A loss is coming, so sprinkling on the moneyline here makes sense.
I’ve gone back and forth on this game. The line is pretty fishy, and obvious why Buffalo is the public side. I’ll fade the public here and go with a Niners team that might finally be getting it together. Key players are still injured, but other healthy pieces are working their way back in for San Francisco. This is a true neutral field game, with SF playing in Arizona right now due to COVID-19 restrictions, but that also shows just how much faith oddsmakers and sharps have in the Niners. Buffalo will face a really tough defense here, while the Bills feature one of the softest in the NFL. Let’s not forget that the Niners handled the Rams last week, a team many consider a Super Bowl favorite in the NFC. A path is coming together for a 9-7-ish San Francisco team to get into the postseason and it starts with a must-win here. Look for the 49ers to dominate the ground game as well as time of possession and limit Josh Allen in a close win.
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Part of the path to victory here is running the ball well against Buffalo. Mostert returned from injury in Week 12 and despite not playing since Week 6, San Francisco handed him the ball 16 times against a tough Rams defense. Mostert’s handled at least 15 carries in all three of his starts he’s stayed healthy in this season, a trend I expect to continue on Monday. Other backs will mix in, but I’d expect Mostert to be featured and the Niners’ starter has seen more than 12 carries in nearly every game this season. The game plan here should call for a lot of running the ball, and if the Niners do pull this one out, this bet is somewhat correlated.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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