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DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Trends and Early NFL Predictions for Week 14

Steve Buchanan analyzes three fantasy football player performances from Week 13 and gives his take on if it’ll continue or not in Week 14.

There is nothing better than some overreactions after the dust settles on a football Sunday. All of us armchair quarterbacks go and make our critiques and tell all our friends and family about what we would have done differently.

The great thing for me is, they asked me to do this and YOU’RE sitting here reading it! How about that?

For this piece, each week we’ll take a look at some players that either potentially overachieved or underachieved and what the outlook for them is moving forward — specifically for next week’s game. Are they set up for more success or could someone have simply had a bad week? My job here is to try and figure that out and relay that information to you. Let’s take a look!

Oh, feel free to tell me how wrong I am by getting at me on Twitter @SBuchanan24.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire[$1M to 1st]

David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
Week 13 Fantasy Total: 27.1 DKFP

I’ll admit, I was wrong about “David Montgomery chalk week.” I was completely overthinking the spot and faded him (I’m mostly a tournament player) in over 90% of my lineups. Boy, was I wrong. One of the cheaper chalk running back plays of the week completely worked out for all, as Montgomery scored 27.1 DKFP, rushing the ball 17 times for 72 yards and two touchdowns while also adding four catches for 39 yards. While everyone was joyously celebrating their chalk hitting, I was swearing at myself for trying to be cute and paying up at both RB spots with Dalvin Cook (not bad) and Derrick Henry (oh, now the Browns are good). Anyways, if you were thinking that Montgomery was chalk last week, wait until Week 14.

Montgomery now has a matchup against ANOTHER favorable team to run against in the Texans. Actually, let me rephrase that.

The Texans are a “run defense” you can literally trample over.

On the season, they’re allowing an average of 139 (!) rushing yards, 46 receiving yards and 17 total touchdowns scored by opposing backs. Montgomery is getting his third straight game against a run defense that ranks near the bottom of the league, and in those two prior matchups, he has turned that into 175 rushing yards on 28 attempts and 79 receiving yards on nine catches with three total touchdowns. He has a very, VERY good chance of replicating the production he’s put out over this span and only a $1K bump in salary makes it all the more enticing.

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
Week 13 Fantasy Total: 35.74 DKFP

Barring a monster performance from either the Monday or Tuesday night games, Carr was the highest scoring quarterback of the week with 35.74 DKFP. Completing 28 of 47 pass attempts, Carr threw for a season-high 381 passing yards with three touchdowns and an interception in a last-second win over the Jets because they have the worst blitz in the league, at least on the final play.

Carr saw a minimal bump in salary this week, going from $5,800 to only $6,000. Pretty cheap for a guy who just went off last week, right? While that’s true, the matchup is a tough one against the Colts. Defensively, they’ve been excellent, allowing just an average of 17.5 DKFP (T-4) to opposing quarterbacks along with 232 passing yards and only 15 touchdowns thrown. Of Carr’s receivers, the only real matchup that stands out is Nelson Agholor ($4,700) against CB Rock Ya-Sin. In coverage, Ya-Sin has been targeted against 49 times, allowing 35 receptions for 534 yards and 15.3 YPR. Aside from that, it’s hard to find a matchup, or receiver, you’d feel comfortable pairing up with Carr. While it was a great performance last week, Carr is likely best left on the board in Week 14, especially if people are going to chase his performance in Week 13.

Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
Week 13 Fantasy Total: 3.1 DKFP

This was such a weird game for Sanders, who started the game with five carries on the first drive. Perfect, that was a great start against a very beatable Packers run defense. Then, it was almost as if he was injured, as he didn’t take a carry on the next three drives. Like, what? Instead, it was good ol’ Jordan Howard and Boston Scott in the mix instead of Sanders. It was very puzzling but then again, this is also the same club that took until the second half of Week 13 to realize the better quarterback is sitting on the bench and not on the field.

The usage for Sanders, who ended up playing 56.5% of the snaps, was so odd that it really puts him in an awkward spot. Can you really roster him after Week 13 even with a $500 drop in salary? To be fair, he did lead the team with 27.8% of the total touches but we’re talking abut 11 total pass attempts completed on 27 attempts. The Eagles ran the ball a total of 16 times as well, and Sanders ended up with 10 carries. So while the number looks good, it really was just a disaster all around.

Week 14 brings an extremely tough matchup against a very good run defense in the Saints. Aside from allowing an average of 12 DKFP to opposing backs, which by the way, is the lowest in the league, only five touchdowns have been scored by the position against them. With what we saw on Sunday, how could you even consider using Sanders here? It’s a bummer because he’s such a great talent but my goodness, what a disaster in Philly.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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