Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the value of each driver.
(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.)
1. Martin Truex Jr. ($8,300) - Stage 1 is the longest stage of this short race and those laps led points will likely belong to Truex. There were a couple of occasions where the non-preferred groove stole the lead on a restart, but that’s not going to happen on cold PJ1 at the beginning of the race. (4.1 fppk)
2. Denny Hamlin ($10,100) - With so few laps in the All-Star race, place differential points become a larger percentage of the total points available. Hamlin will be popular because of his starting percentage, but it’s not the only reason his ownership will be sky-high. He led most laps in the May Bristol race. (4.7 fppk)
3. Erik Jones ($7,200) - In these short exhibition races, it is common for DFS players to chase place differential points. Jones would be a lock at an intermediate track or plate track, but this is Bristol. Fast lap points are distributed throughout the field. This neutralizes Jones’ place differential advantage, but not enough to sway ownership. (3.8 fppk)
4. Ryan Blaney ($8,000) - In 2018, Blaney was one of the best cars in the low downforce package at Bristol. To no one’s surprise, he replicated that feat in the May race. To everyone’s surprise, he wrecked while running up front again. (4.5 fppk)
5. Brad Keselowski ($8,600) - There were times in the first Bristol race where Keselowski was the best car on the track and there were times where he wasn’t. It’s a 500-lap race, all that matters is the 500th lap. In terms of average lap times in the May race, Keselowski ranked fourth. (4.8 fppk)
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6. Kyle Busch ($9,100) - He ran the most fast laps in the May race, but he did not look like the dominant Kyle Busch DFS players have come to expect. One of the popular theories is that the lack of practice has hurt Kyle Busch. In a 140-lap Bristol race, he has almost no time at all to dial the car in this week. (2.8 fppk)
7. Chase Elliott ($9,700) - The end result does not show the real picture. Elliott led 88 laps in the May race, and he scored the second-most fast lap points. His average lap time in that race was 16.11 seconds. That was the best in the field. (4.3 fppk)
8. Kevin Harvick ($10,400) - Bristol has not been a particularly good track for Harvick in some time, but the May race was a step in the right direction. Harvick had the sixth-highest driver rating. One good pit stop could thrust the No. 4 car to the lead in the All-Star Race. (5.6 fppk)
9. Joey Logano ($9,400) - Bristol was a pretty wild race in May. Logano hung around until the end and took the lead on the last restart on lap 497, but it didn’t last. Chase Elliott attempted to wrestle the lead back and pulled a “hold my beer” maneuver that resulted in both cars wrecking. (3.6 fppk)
10. Kurt Busch ($7,600) - There were 17 cautions in the May race at Bristol. Good cars were bound to get caught in some of that carnage. Busch couldn’t get clear of the Stenhouse pile up on lap 231. In a 140-lap dash at Bristol, this race will come down to restarts and Kurt Busch has been one of the best re-starters over the past two years. (4.2 fppk)
11. Jimmie Johnson ($8,800) - His last win was an exhibition win at Daytona in 2019. If any driver in the field didn’t need one million dollars it would be Johnson. If any driver didn’t need an exhibition win it would be Jimmie Johnson. In the May race, Johnson posted the sixth-fastest average lap time. (3.6 fppk)
12. Alex Bowman ($6,300) - Stage 1 of the May race ended with Bowman in 11th place. During the yellow flag laps, Bowman had to pit twice due to a loose wheel. He restarted Stage 2 in 30th place. One hundred laps later, he was able to climb eight spots but was still running in the thick of the field and his day ended in the big Stenhouse wreck. (3.6 fppk)
13. Ryan Newman ($6,900) - In the May race, Newman caused three cautions. Despite the numerous incidents, Newman finished where he ran and where he always runs — 15th place. (3.5 fppk)
14. Cole Custer ($5,800) - It’s all about restarts and pit road. He gambled on pit road strategy and got lucky. He then hit the lottery again on the last restart when super mensch Matt DiBenedetto selflessly pushed Custer to the win. With $1 million on the line, it’s unlikely anyone does Custer any favors. (4.3 fppk)
15. Matt Kenseth ($6,500) - Why did Matt Kenseth return to NASCAR if he hates the high downforce package? Maybe it was for short tracks where the low downforce package is raced. Regardless of the amount of enjoyment Kenseth is getting on track, he’ll be having a lot of fun if he wins $1 million. (2.8 fppk)
16. Justin Haley ($5,200) - Half of the field needs to wreck out for Haley to work. Bristol is no stranger to carnage and pile up wrecks, but those are usually a result of lap traffic and a 40-car field. Even if Spire Motorsports manages to field a decent car, Haley has never driven a low-downforce, high-horsepower car. Racing at Bristol without practice or experience sounds like a terrible idea. (10.9 fppk)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.