A lot has changed since MLB announced back in March that the start of the 2020 regular season would be delayed, but the regular season is finally set to get underway on Thursday, July 23. Here’s a look at how and why some of the futures betting odds have changed over the last four months on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
White Sox: +3500 to +2400
Astros: +550 to +850
Red Sox: +2500 to +4000
Over four months have passed since Major League Baseball first announced it would delay the season, but there really hasn’t been a lot of change in terms of odds to win the World Series. Only a few teams have had any notable movement, with the Chicago White Sox being the only team to move in a substantially positive direction. The White Sox are one of the most popular bets this year for both the American League and the World Series, and the betting volume on this young, up-and-coming team seems to have caused this shift in odds.
On the flip side, the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox have seen their implied World Series odds drop, though for different reasons. As you’ll see with more of the analysis below, this is a theme for the Red Sox, but much of their odds change occurred well after the blockbuster trade that sent Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers back in February. The more relevant news, at least in terms of the betting lines, is that Chris Sale opted to undergo Tommy John surgery in late March and will miss the entire 2020 season.
As for the Astros, there simply just isn’t much betting action coming in on them and perhaps it has a lot to do with the cheating scandal that dominated pre-COVID-19 baseball news. A condensed season also means less time for favorites to establish themselves, and that could be a part of what we’re seeing with the Astros here as well.
Rays: +600 to +350
Athletics: +400 to +230
Angels: +750 to +550
Diamondbacks: +1200 to +750
Padres: +1200 to +900
The division odds movers consist of second-tier teams that appear to be benefiting from a shortened 2020 season. As mentioned above, the Astros’ edge appears to be reduced by the shortened season, and as a result, the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics have seen a jump in implied probability. The same is true for the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, who are closing in on the Dodgers due to a tighter schedule.
The situation for the Rays is a little more nuanced, as their chances to win the AL East are directly affected by the roster turmoil within the New York Yankees. Back in March, the Yankees were preparing for the season with injuries to Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Luis Severino, and James Paxton. The suspended season gave most of these players enough time to recover, which definitely hurts the Rays’ chances in the division, although Luis Severino remains out for the year after having Tommy John surgery. It seems likely that the Severino injury is still impacting the odds here, but the Rays should also benefit from the condensed schedule in the same ways as the teams in the AL West and NL West.
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Diamondbacks: 29.8* to 31.5
Dodgers: 36.1* to 37.5
Twins: 33.1* to 34.5
Reds: 30.2* to 31.5
Mets: 31.7* to 32.5
Pirates: 26.9* to 25.5
Red Sox: 32.8* to 31.5
The win totals seen here are derived from the original 162-game odds and then weighted for a 60 game schedule to get an estimate of how the numbers have changed. Some of the changes may simply be due to quirks in the schedule, with the original 162-game version being scrapped and an entirely new 60-game version being produced. None of these win totals have moved by more than two wins, so there’s really not a lot to see here. It should be mentioned, however, that two wins in a 60-game season is much more significant than two wins in a 162-game season.
Gleyber Torres: 40-1 to 20-1
Yoan Moncada: 66-1 to 40-1
Yordan Alvarez: 66-1 to 40-1
Austin Meadows: 125-1 to 66-1
Ronald Acuna Jr.: 12-1 to 9-1
AL Cy Young
James Paxton: 80-1 to 40-1
Shane Bieber: 14-1 to 8-1
Jose Berrios: 33-1 to 20-1
Eduardo Rodriguez: 66-1 to 30-1
NL Cy Young
Jack Flaherty: 12-1 to 8-1
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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