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MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Predictions, Betting Odds for July 28

Steve Buchanan breaks down Tuesday’s DraftKings MLB slate with pitching and hitting analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

New York Mets v Boston Red Sox Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

Tuesday is looking like it’s going to be a wild night of baseball. Almost every single team will be running out their fifth starter, which is likely going to bring us some very high scoring games. Walker Buehler is likely going to be massive chalk on this slate, so keep that in mind when building.

This piece will cover the main slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET. As always, feel free to follow me on the ol’ Twitter machine @SBuchanan24.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Tonight’s games between the Orioles and Marlins has been postponed.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $600K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st]

Game Notes

Biggest Moneyline Favorite

Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the largest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Josh Lindblom, $5,100, MIL (-180) vs. PIT (+155) — This is a perfect example of how the landscape of tonight’s pitching options are. Have you ever heard of Lindblom before? Maybe? Well, regardless if you have or not, he is the biggest favorite on this slate. He hasn’t pitched in the majors for the past couple of years as he spent time over with our friends in the KBO. So while we don’t have much current data to go off of, we do know that aside from Colin Moran ($3,000), this offense is struggling. Lindblom’s strikeout potential isn’t bad at all for someone who is as cheap as he is, posting an 8.7 K/9 in his last stint in the majors and 8.3 and 8.4 over the last two years in the KBO. This is an ugly slate overall and while Lindblom will likely be another popular option, it’s really tough to find players to trust tonight.

Other notable favorites: Patrick Sandoval ($6,600; -178) vs. Mariners, Daniel Mengden ($7,400; -175) vs. Rockies

Highest Projected Total

STL (+133) vs. MIN (-152) 10 runs — As you’d expect, this slate features multiple games with at least 10 runs projected. This game has the highest juice on the over at -118, so we’ll profile this one. Carlos Martinez ($8,800) is set to make his return to the Cardinals’ rotation after spending the entire season in their bullpen, where he pitched extremely well. The question is, however, did he truly regain his form or did he simply benefit from much shorter outings? As a starter in 2018 through 18 games, Martinez showed some shaky control with an 11.0 BB%. His overall numbers were good with a .301 wOBA and a 3.65 FIP but all too often, we saw him crumble as the game progressed. Now he faces one of the toughest offenses in the league. Between him and Homer Bailey ($9,000) taking the mound, I have zero interest in the pitching in this game and expect this to be one of the more popular games to stack with the Twins as one of meany teams with a 5.5 team total.

Other notable team totals: Brewers (5.5) vs. Pirates, Dodgers (5.5) vs. Astros, Angels (5.5) vs. Mariners

Weather Concerns

Clear night of baseball!

Splits to Start

Note: This section will show stats for 2019 until Aug. 6.

Pitchers vs. Left-Handed Batters

Worst vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Antonio Senzatela, .394, 6.11
Kyle Gibson, .347, 4.28
Merrill Kelly, .325, 4.28

Best vs. LHB, wOBA, FIP
Walker Buehler, .263, 2.83
Homer Bailey, .277, 4.06
Jeff Samardzija, .314, 5.22

Pitchers vs. Right-Handed Batters

Worst vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Derek Holland, .406, 7.31
Framber Valdez, .356, 5.14
Antonio Senzatela, .352, 4.87

Best vs. RHB, wOBA, FIP
Jeff Samardzija, .263, 3.99
Walker Buehler, .277, 3.19
Zach Davies, .302, 4.03

Lineup Starters

Pitcher to Build Around

Patrick Sandoval, LAA vs. SEA, $6,600 — As mentioned, we do not by any means have a lot of great pitching options to choose from. I’ll be honest, Sandoval does not have great command, as evidenced by his 11.2 BB% in his 10 games last season. It’s been an issue that’s followed him throughout the minor as well, so that’s a concern. However, he does also have some really high strikeout upside. In the nine games he started, he produced a 22.8 K% and a 13.5% swing-and-miss rate. At this salary, I’ll take the chance with Sandoval and hope he can capitalize on a weak Mariners lineup.

Heavy Hitter to Pay For

Peter Alonso, NYM at BOS, $5,500 — Choosing your bats will be A LOT easier than your pitching. Truly, we have a number of players that could easily be a bat to pay up for but I’m going with Alonso against a putrid Red Sox pitching staff. They’re running out Matt Hall ($4,900), who spent time with the Tigers last season, making 16 appearances and producing a solid 24 K% but a 13.3 BB% and a 1.5 HR/9. I’m not expecting Hall to go deep in this game so if that means more of the Red Sox bullpen for the Mets, give me all the Alonso and Mets bats.

Save Big by Drafting

Salvador Perez, KCR at DET, $2,800 — This is such a ridiculous salary for Perez that you almost have to play him. With the lack of pitching on this slate, it won’t be hard to pay up for players but I’m also not going to pass on value. This is a hitter that’ll bat cleanup, has over 20 home runs in four straight seasons before missing 2019 and had a .305 wOBA with a .217 ISO against righties in 2018. We truly don’t have much to think about here.

Favorite Team To Stack

MIL at PIT (Derek Holland) — We have so many teams to choose from tonight but the Brewers are one of my favorite clubs to do it with. Derek Holland ($6,100) is so incredibly bad against righties that it’s hard to shy away from stacking the Brew Crew. Last season, Holland posted a putrid .406 wOBA with a 7.31 FIP and 19 of his 20 home runs allowed came against righties. Even if you don’t want to do a full stack of Brewers, I would get at least a couple of them in your lineup.

Set your DraftKings lineups here: MLB $600K Relay Throw [$100K to 1st]

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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