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MLB Best Bets: Predictions to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for July 28

Julian Edlow gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s MLB card.

New York Mets v Boston Red Sox Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

We had a very solid opening week for best bets, with Thursday and Friday’s articles going a combined 7-3-1 — +3.81 units if you played to win a unit on each, betting a minimum of one unit on each bet. Here’s what stands out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s games.

DraftKings users can get in on the action by betting on DraftKings Sportsbook or by downloading the DK Sportsbook app.

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds: CHC Team Total Over 4.5 (-132)

The Reds are not off to the hot start many of us predicted, and pitching has been the issue. The Cubs ripped off eight runs in the first games of the series and now face Tyler Mahle, who posted a 5.14 ERA in 27 appearances in 2019. He got slammed for seven runs in 11 innings against the Cubs last season. The Reds’ bullpen has been awful this year, failing to hold the Tigers in check in the first series. This is more of a Reds fade as you can tell, but the Chicago bats have also been productive, averaging 5.75 runs per game.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros: LAD ML — First 5 Innings (-148)

These are obviously two of the most deadly lineups in baseball, but I’m willing to call the batters a wash here. The Dodgers have a huge starting pitching advantage, which is what we want to highlight here. Walker Buehler was fantastic last season, posting a 3.26 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He’s opposite Framber Valdez, who started eight of his 26 appearances for Houston last season, finishing with a 5.86 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. This one is too simple to overthink. Buehler’s too cheap here.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros: LAD Team Total Over 5.5 (+116)

I’d love to get an O4.5 play here in the -125 range, but I’m also not willing to pass up the plus-money on O5.5 runs for the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 2-2 to the TT over so far this season, and average exactly 5.5 runs per game. However, Houston is sending a below average bullpen arm to the mound in this one and doesn’t have much talent behind him. The Astros just gave up 12 total runs in the last two games against Seattle.

New York Mets at Boston Red Sox: NYM ML — First 5 Innings (-117)

The Red Sox continue to be overvalued early in the season, priced for their solid offense. However, Boston realistically could have the worst rotation in baseball, and the bullpen isn’t much better. The Mets tend to have bullpen issues of their own, which is what leans me towards a F5 play here — but if you want to target the ML as well, I like the play. The Mets are starting a decent minor league prospect in David Peterson, who has a 3.63 ERA in 247 innings pitching in the minors. The Red Sox are turning to Matt Hall for the start — who has a career 9.48 ERA in 21 appearances out of the Tigers’ bullpen. I expect this to get ugly fast.

New York Mets at Boston Red Sox: NYM Team Total Over 5.5 (-120)

This play goes hand-in-hand with everything I laid out above. The Red Sox started a similar pitcher in Josh Osich on Monday and found themselves down 7-0 by the fourth inning. The only reason Boston limited the Mets to seven runs total was four fantastic innings from Zack Godley, who should be unavailable today, and enter Boston’s rotation the next time around. That means we’ll see more dumpster fire bullpen arms from the Sox to close this one out.

New York Mets at Boston Red Sox: Player Prop — To Hit a HR and Team Wins Game — Pete Alonso (+460)

Let’s play this one for just a half-unit given the odds, but I love the prop here. I don’t think I have to explain much about this bet. I expect the Mets to win this game handily, and Alonso has another terrific matchup. He hit an absolute bomb on Monday night at Fenway, which is a park that caters towards him. He faced a garbage lefty to start this game. I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits a HR in the first inning.

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.