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Wednesday’s wild weather slate includes a fun battle of the birds in the snow in primetime as the Ravens head to virtual Philadelphia to take on the Eagles. Both teams would be in contention for Wild Card spots based on their records so far in these sims. The Eagles have gone 20-20 in their 40 contests while the Ravens have been one game better at 21-19. Philadelphia won the first meeting between these teams, 27-24, in a very entertaining game that we can hope bodes well for another close, exciting, point-producing contest in the snow in primetime. Can the Ravens avenge that loss on the road or will the Eagles soar to another victory and even their record with Baltimore? I’ll give you my pick to win, possible gamescripts and who you should consider for your fantasy lineups in my picks below.
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Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices
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While he’s not nearly as dynamic as his counterpart in this matchup, Carson Wentz ($11,400) has been very solid overall in these sims, and he has a nice group of pass-catching options to work with. Wentz has averaged 17.7 DKFP on 238 passing yards per sim while accumulating 74 passing touchdowns. He threw for two scores in the first meeting between these teams and finished with 15.46 DKFP. Wentz is a steady contributor, but he doesn’t have the high ceiling you’d expect if you’re sinking this much salary into a spot. He has scored over 19 DKFP in three straight but has reached 25 DKFP just four times in 40 sims. If you have the salary available he’s not a bad option, but he’s not someone I’m looking to build around at this cost.
The fantasy star of the Philadelphia offense has been RB1 Miles Sanders ($8,600), who has totaled 23 touchdowns while averaging 71.6 rushing yards and 17.1 receiving yards on 2.3 catches per sim. His involvement as a pass-catcher helps him be a lower risk while also raising his ceiling. He had 10.1 DKFP on 82 rushing yards and a touchdown in the first meeting of these teams and has over 18 DKFP in four of his past seven. He has an extremely high ceiling as he showed off against the Rams with 38.4 DKFP four sims ago, and I love the upside he offers even though he did struggle badly in his most recent sim with just 2.4 DKFP against a tough San Francisco defense. He should find the Ravens a little bit of an easier opponent in this contest. Sanders has done pretty well in weather games, and the snow may force the Eagles to rely more heavily on their run game and short passes.
Relying on short passes would help Sanders along with TE Zach Ertz ($9,200), who is the only skill-position player with Superstar traits on the Eagles. Ertz has averaged fewer DKFP per sim than Sanders but still has produced a solid 14.7 DKFP per contest on 5.2 catches for 64.1 yards. His volume of work is what makes him an attractive option, and he offers a very high ceiling as well with over 29 DKFP in four of his sims (10%) and double-digit DKFP in 24 contests (65%). He didn’t have a touchdown in the first game between these teams but did have 11.7 DKFP on five catches. The fact that he gets such consistent volume makes him one of the safest plays in this contest, and he also brings the potential to go off if the team sees him in a mismatch.
The rest of the Philadelphia receiving options aren’t great, which is one reason why Ertz and Sanders get good volume in the passing game. Alshon Jeffery ($9,600) costs more than any other Eagle except for Wentz, but he is only averaging 12.9 DKFP per sim. He has had a few “boom” games but has far more often been mostly “bust” with under 15 DKFP in each of his past five straight and only three catches or fewer in six of his past eight. He does have big-play potential but seems overpriced for this matchup. DeSean Jackson ($6,200) also brings big-play ability but has struggled to be consistent with 10.1 DKFP on 3.3 catches for 42.5 yards per sim. Jackson has 16 touchdowns including three in his past three sims, but he had just one in his previous nine contests. DJax has a 94 speed rating which makes him a big-play threat, but his volume can vary wildly from game-to-game. One of the most consistent options among the Philadelphia receiving corps has actually been WR3 Nelson Agholor ($4,800), who is averaging 11.2 DKFP on 4.0 catches for 54 yards per sim. He hasn’t scored the touchdowns of the WRs ahead of him on the depth chart with just 10 scores, but his regular involvement has resulted in double-digit DKFP in five straight and eight of his past 10. He comes at a very affordable cost and is one of my favorite plays in this matchup even though the Ravens have been pretty solid against slot WR.
The Eagles’ DST ($3,600) is in a tough matchup but is still my preferred defense in this sim. This unit has 76 sacks in their 40 sims but has forced just 11 turnovers, which is why this DST is producing a mediocre 4.1 DKFP per contest. Even in the snow, I’d probably lean toward K Jake Elliott ($4,200) if you have the salary, since he has averaged 6.9 DKFP per sim and has at least 5.0 DKFP in six of his past seven while the DST has hit that number just once over its past eight.
The main reason I’m not high on the Eagles’ DST is that the defensive unit will have to deal with the always challenging dual-threat of Lamar Jackson ($12,200). Jackson is averaging a matchup-high 21.6 DKFP per sim, which is almost 4.0 DKFP per sim higher than Wentz, who is the second-highest on the board. Jackson has averaged 160.4 passing yards and 68.5 rushing yards per contest while throwing 50 touchdown passes and adding 22 rushing scores. He is the only X-Factor Superstar in this contest and actually seems affordable on a per-dollar basis compared to the other top-shelf options in this matchup. Jackson had 30.14 DKFP in his first sim against the Eagles, throwing for 186 yards and two touchdowns while running for 127 yards. He has reached a similar level of production with at least 29 DKFP in five of his past seven sims. He carries almost all the work in the Ravens’ offense and always has the potential to break the slate with a monster performance. He’s virtually a must-own since there aren’t a ton of high-end options to consider as viable pivots in this contest.
The snow may force Jackson to rely more on short passes, which would be good for TE Mark Andrews ($6,800). He is producing 9.8 DKFP per sim with 3.8 catches for 41.9 yards per contest and a total of 11 touchdowns. His numbers are very similar to DeSean Jackson’s overall at about the same price point, but I think Andrews is a little more reliable due to his role in the offense.
Andrews sometimes serves as the team’s top option in the passing game, although Marquise Brown ($7,400) has surged past him and is averaging 10.6 DKFP per contest. Hollywood can be extremely boom-or-bust with his 97 speed rating, making him a big-play threat. He has only hit double-digits in one of his past six sims but that was a nice 20.7-DKFP performance against the Texans. When he’s good, he has a very high ceiling, but he’s also a pretty big bust risk. The other Ravens WRs haven’t done very much. Willie Snead IV ($5,400) hasn’t been very involved with just 6.2 DKFP per sim, and Seth Roberts ($3,400) has actually out-produced him with 7.1 DKFP per contest but only has one catch in each of his past three games and hasn’t reached 10 DKFP in any of his 11 most recent matchups.
While the passing game has been inconsistent due to lack of volume while Jackson piles up rushing yards, RB Mark Ingram II ($8,000) hasn’t been all that impacted by Jackson’s rushing production. He has averaged a solid 57.6 rushing yards and 12.3 receiving yards per sim with 16 total touchdowns. His numbers aren’t close to as strong as Sanders, but his 11.6 DKFP average puts him second on the team only to Jackson. Ingram had a touchdown and 15.0 DKFP in his first sim against the Eagles, and he’s worth a look if you’re spending around this price point. I prefer Sanders and Ertz over him, but I’d go with Ingram before Jackson, Brown or Andrews.
The Ravens’ DST ($3,000) has some very highly-rated players, but they haven’t produced good numbers in these sims. They only have 15 takeaways and 59 sacks in their 40 sims for an average of 3.2 DKFP per sim. Justin Tucker ($4,000) has consistently been the better non-traditional option and has produced 6.4 DKFP per sim. Kicking is impacted by the snow, but Tucker is still the better play of these two options. I like the upside of Roberts as a value, but Tucker is a lot safer and more consistent.
The obvious Captain’s Pick play here is Lamar Jackson ($18,300 CP) since he has such a huge advantage in both his average production and his ceiling production. He will likely be a very popular play as well, though, so look to differentiate your entries in other ways. If you want to go with Jackson as a flex and roll with other Captain’s Pick options, Miles Sanders ($12,900 CP) would definitely be my second choice with Zach Ertz ($13,800 CP) also worth a look since he has some huge volume games. If you’re looking to take more of a flier in your Captain’s Pick spot, check out Nelson Agholor ($7,200 CP), who has a nice ceiling despite a tricky matchup.
I think this should be a close game and result in some solid fantasy production. Jackson is clearly the best player on the field, both by ratings and performance in these sims. I think he’ll do enough to overcome the snow and get the Ravens a nice road win in Philly.
Final Score: Ravens 27, Eagles 21
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.